Syrian Civil War : Toward a Regime Victory?

Syrian civil war Source : The Independent

The Syrian Civil War that is lasting since now 2011 , might soon come to an end. Indeed Bashar Al-Assad and its allies have made impressive gains this last months on all Syrian Battlefields. 

Current Map of Syrian Civil War

The regime has found an amazing tactic to supress Rebels pockets throughout Syria : Promising them safe passage for the fighters and their family toward the Idlib Region , which is the only remaining rebels stronghold.

In the North : 

Besides the impressive reconquest of Aleppo.,The regime managed to suppress the biggest threat to its power – The Euphrate Shield Operation- launched by Turkey. Following the capture of Al-Bab , the Turkish Government stopped its support for its Free Syrian Army Proxy. This permitted the Regime Special Forces “The Tiger Force” to open a new battlefield against ISIS and conquer vast areas in Eastern Aleppo.

The Tiger Forces managed to  conquer the ISIS stronghold of Dayr Hafir , the Jirah Airbase and hundreds of villages. Most ISIS troops having withdrawn from the Area to protect Raqqa, It is only a matter of time before the tiger force reconquer the entire region.

The regime is also benefitting from being a buffer state between Kurdish Territory and FSA territory (supported by Turkey). FSA forces are directed toward the Kurds rather than Bashar’s troops.

Therefore on the Northern Front, everything is calm. The regime and the FSA even agreed to a ceasefire after the regime gave back the Tadif City next to Al-Bab. Since then, a ceasefire has been observed and respected between the two parts.

The North which is home to the “Idlib Stronghold” the biggest rebel area, has not shown particular agressive attitude toward the regieme forces from Aleppo to Hader. Very few incident have occured and the rebels seems to be on the defensive, mainly become there are now heavy infightings between the different rebel factions (HTS, Ahar Al-Sham and the Free Syrian Army).

The Central Front : 

In April 2017, HTS, the largest rebel group (Previously known as Al-Nusra) launched a large scale offensive on Northern Hama Region.

This blitz offensive was devastating for the regime forces, with the rebels taking successively the cities of Khattab, Suran and other villages leading directly toward Hama.

Still, after a huge effort and coordination between Hezbollah and Russia. Iranians militias and Hezbollah troops stopped the rebels offensive at Qimhana (Northern Hama) and launched an impressive counter attack.

The counter attack from Governmental troops was even more devastating, they reconquered all the lost territory and pushed further. The rebels lost all their stronghold in the region (Muhradah, Halfaya and Tayyibat Al Imam) in a matter of weeks after hundreds of Russians airstrikes. The regime even pushed further and captured large areas.  The Regime was stopped by the rebels in the Lataminah Region.

Since then the rebels are largely on the defensive on the region and have shown and inability to coordonate on the long term and to hold the territory they capture. They are extremely vulnerable to regime counter attacks . Rebels weakness is that it take them too long to organize a line of defense in newly captured territories.

The other Central Front is the Rastan pocket, which has been extremely calm these recent months. Additionally The Rebels suffered heavy blow when they lost the Homs Pocket to Governmental troops.

The Central Front is where the Russian and Syrian Air Force have been the most active , with thousands of bombings every month. This explains why the rebels are constantly on the defensive.

The Damascus Front : 

This is one of the front where the regime has been the most successful. The Damascus region is the most populated area of Syria, therefore highly strategic.

The regime managed to eliminate the Zabadani, Madaya and the Wadi Pockets. Recently the powerful Qaboun pocket was also securized.

What remains is only the Eastern Ghouta pockets which is hold by Jaysh Al-Islam Rebels. The Army is currently pushing hard to divide this pocket in two by attacking on the flanks on the Bayt Naim Area.

Southern Front :

On the Southern Front the Regime has litterally demolished the Rebels and ISIS.

In the South East , they captured thousands of kilometers of desert from ISIS and FSA. Palmyra has become totally secure , and they are about to encircle two rebels pockes in the Rif Dimashk.

The regime forces are closing to controlling the entire region , they almost captured Al-tank FSA headquarters in the region. They have claimed they are now ready to launch a large scale offensive to regain the entire desert with the two strategic goals of securing the Jordanian border and reaching Deir Ez-Zor.

The Russian and Druze support have been crucial for the regime to regain these territories.

However in the Daraa’ area the regime is clearly in difficulty against FSA rebels. The regimes has lost few houses and battlefield headquarters in the recent months.

Recent reports suggests that many infiltrations of Government troops failed and that the casualties are heavy for the government in this area.

A key factor for the regime in this region would be to avoid direct confrontation with offensive Israel. Israel has not hesitated in the last months to attack Hezbollah,NDF and Government troops in the region through airstrikes and drones.

 

David Allouche
About David Allouche 167 Articles
David founded Young Diplomats in 2014. His goal was to create a platform for students in International Relations to share their articles with the world. David's holds an MA in Strategy and Diplomacy and works for an International Organization. He can be reached at youngdiplomats2@gmail.com
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2 Comments on Syrian Civil War : Toward a Regime Victory?

  1. I, personally, admire Assad as a leader. If the war is won by Assad, there will be so many shady things come into light. That would be a very interesting turn of events for the world of international politics

  2. Its for me personnally sad to See ( sorry for me that simple words , with just that fact in the back ) how a complete Region is terrmined and is it too See how hard and long time needed the enhacement of that region would be , and how much work it need to build it up against that destroy machine ( leed by whatever or against whoever )

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