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Armies are considered an important part of a country and its security. Every year, a large fortune is allocated out of the budget for fighting battles. Countries take special initiatives to strengthen themselves militarily. If we try to compare the armies of the different nations to gauge the countries with strongest armies, it would probably not be possible to do so hypothetically. However, without leading to a bloodbath, we can have a fair idea about the military strengths of countries by taking into account the arsenal in their possession, advanced technologies implemented, training, power and number of allies, size of the army, budget allocated, etc. While it is a rather subjective issue, several organizations, such as Business Insider, conduct their own studies to rank the military powers. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 Countries with Strongest Armies.

10. Japan

Countries with Strongest Armies
Japan was the land of Samurais, and Japan was a leading military force in WW-II. Interestingly, its peace treaty at the end of WW-II prohibits it from having an offensive army. In response to its growing disputes with the ever-expanding China, Japan started military expansion, first time in 40 years, placing new base on outer islands. It increased its military spending, first time in 11 years, to $49.1 billion, the world’s 6th highest. It has over 247,000 active personnel and almost 60,000 in reserve. With 1,595 aircraft, it is the 5th largest air force. The army is also equipped with 131 war ships. Besides, through its recent defence initiatives, it maintains a solid military presence in Asia.

9. South Korea

Countries with Strongest Armies
South Korea shares its border with North Korea which has an extremely powerful army at its disposal, and hence, is a constant threat to South Korea. But, its offensive neighbour is not its only problem. To meet the increasing armament of China and Japan, South Korea has been increasing its defence expenditure, which is now $34 billion. It maintains a large army of over 640,000 active personnel and 2,900,000 additional personnel in the reserve, alongside the 6th largest air force with 1,393 aircraft, as well as a small 166 ships. The country has about 15,000 land weapons, including rocket systems, as well as 2,346 tanks. It routinely participates in military training with the US.

8. Turkey

Countries with Strongest Armies
It was perhaps the struggle of the other countries sharing borders with the regions where the Islamic State has a strong presence, the struggle in Syria or the probability of clashes with the Kurdish separatist organization, PKK, which made Turkey realize that it needs to prepare itself to face danger head on, if and when it approaches, and decide to increase its investment in defence in 2015 by 10%. Its defence budget is at $18.18 billion. Its army size, including regular troops and reserves, is just above 660,000. Turkey’s air force has 1000 aircraft. The military also claims to 16,000 land weapons. It has strong diplomatic ties with the US, and partakes in initiatives around the world.

7. Germany

German special forces
Germany is one of the strongest economic forces in the world, but despite spending around $45 million every year, the army’s condition seems to have deteriorated in the past few years. This is perhaps because, the generation born and growing up in the 1950-60s were against war and its atrocities, and the fear of being beaten by countries with strongest armies, still discourages the people to join the army. In 2011, mandatory military service was eliminated to prevent the country from being a militarized country. It has only 183,000 active frontline personnel and 145,000 reservists, alongside 710 aircraft in total, and on-land armament of nearly 5,000 of various kinds.

6. France

French Army Jawan
France is another country to follow Germany’s lead because, in 2013, it took the decision to ‘effectively ‘freeze’ its military spending, and cut down on the defence jobs by 10%, to save money for technologically advanced equipment. Its current military budget stands at $43 a year, which is 1.9% of the country’s GDP, much below the spending target as set by NATO. Over 220,000 regular force combines with reservists to form a force of about 500,000. It has just over 1,000 aircraft, along with 9,000 ground vehicles. Even if these do not make France a formidable army, its position in the EU and UN, a total 290 nuclear weapons, and significant deployments strengthen the country.

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5. The United Kingdom

British Army_United Kingdom
The United Kingdom, another member of the EU, also has a plan of reducing the size of the armed forces by 20% between 2010 and 2018, and apply smaller cuts to the Royal Navy and RAF. The defence budget of the UK currently stands at $54 billion. It has a regular force of only about 205,000, along with a small air force of 908 aircraft, and an even smaller navy of 66 ships. However, the army of the UK is still a powerful one, with its superior training, equipment and its 160 nuclear weapons being the main strengths. The Royal Navy is planning to put to service HMS Queen Elizabeth, in 2020. It is an aircraft carrier, planned to carry 40 F-35B joint strike fighters around the world.

4. India

Indian Army_BMP
India has put its massive population to use, and built an army of a sizeable 3.5 million, including 1.325 million active military. The huge size of the Indian military is one of the reasons why it has always remained among the countries with best armies in the world. The man force of the army is complemented by almost 16,000 land vehicles which include 3,500 tanks, as well as 1,785 aircraft, alongside nuclear weapons. Its ballistic missiles can hit all of Pakistan or most of China. Its current defence budget stands at $46 billion, but it is expected to rise, in a drive to modernize the military power and become the 4th highest spender by 2020. It is the world’s largest military goods importer.

3. China

chinese army in field
China’s defence budget officially stands at $126 billion, and, in a relentless drive to invest massively in defence, there is likely to be an increase of budget by 12.2%. It has a formidable size of army, with 2.285 million active frontline personnel and a further 2.3 million reservists, making it the world’s largest land force, along with nearly 25,000 land vehicles. It has another 2,800 aircraft on its air force. China is in possession of about 300 nuclear weapons, alongside 180 different methods of their deployment. China recently acquired sensitive information about the new F-35, and is noted for successfully stealing sensitive military technology. China is rightly among the top 3 armed forces.

2. Russia

Russian Army Women Army
Russia’s defence budget stands at $76.6 billion, and is expected to grow 44% more in the next three years. In fact, the military spending of Kremlin has increased by about a third since 2008, especially since Vladimir Putin took hold of Russia in 2000. The Russian army has shown substantial growth since the collapse of the Soviet Union two decades ago. It has 766,000 active frontline personnel and almost 2.5 million on the reserve force, though the soldiers receive mediocre training. The man force is backed by 15,500 tanks, making Russia the largest tank force in the world, though it is aging, like the other equipment. The country is the world’s leader, with almost 8,500 active nuclear warheads.

1. The United States

Th e U.S. Army Marksmanship training
The United States spends a whopping $612.5 billion on the military, more than the other nine countries’ budgets combined. It maintains a remarkably large army composed of over 1.4 million soldiers, and a further 800,000 reservists. To complement the active ground force comprising well-trained men and women in uniforms, its biggest advantage is that it is the world leader in aircraft production, with a fleet of 19 aircraft carriers, while the carriers operated by the world together sum up to 12. The US implements cutting-edge technology like the Navy’s new rail gun, and the country also has 7,500 nuclear warheads at its disposal. No wonder it is no.1 military force since WW-II.

Thus, the defence budget, man power, air force, navy, etc. together help to determine the most powerful military forces in the world. The countries with strongest armies are the nations that are considered the biggest threats to global security, and these are the nations that also become the heavyweights in global affairs. While the US has projected a formidable military force for a long time, Russia has risen well, and China, too a force to reckon with. These countries clinch the top 3 positions, and the strategies of other countries may gradually make them recognizable forces in the world in a not-so-distant future.

 

This article was written by Wonderlist.com and is available here.

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The discussion has begun today in the Chadian capital Ndjamena, in an extraordinary summit of heads of state of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). Equatorial Guinea and Gabon are the last countries to have endorsed the abolition of visas for nationals of the country. Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), pursuant to the agreement concluded in 2013 on free movement in Central Africa. Any national of the CEMAC countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea, and Chad) may to enter without a visa in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon but must hold a biometric passport.

CEMAC leaders discussed issues of financing, integration as well as review measure taken in Equatorial Guinea for the free movements of persons and goods. However, for some observers Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, two oil-producing, relatively prosperous and sparsely populated countries feared a massive and uncontrolled immigration from the poorer countries of the zone.

http://www.young-diplomats.com
The CEMAC Zone.
Source : Journal du Cameroun

According to media reports; CEMAC statement said the special summit is being convened by the Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno in his capacity as current chair of the grouping.

Among the issues on the agenda are the handing over of the leadership of the CEMAC Commission from Congo’s Pierre Moussa and to Gabon’s Daniel Ona Ondo, the appointment of new leaders of several institutions of the bloc, funding, strengthening progress for integration, and the thorny affair of scrapping visas for citizens of the region. However, the CEMAC zone must diversify its economy, which is too dependent on raw materials. It must better manage its public resources. This is what the experts hammer. The path to healing is long and will still be painful, on the sidelines of the summit.

Equatorial Guinea hosted the last CEMAC heads of state summit in the beginning of this year. The summit comes after Gabon and Equatorial Guinea recently join the bid to open its borders to all CEMAC nationals.

It should be noted that; before these two countries, the Central African Republic “materialized” on 13 October the agreement of free movement between the countries of CEMAC. It was preceded in early August 2017 by Chad.

The decision to fully implement the free movement of persons and goods in the community space was taken in Djibloho, Equatorial Guinea, by the six members of CEMAC.

Founded in June 2000 in Malabo, CÉACAC brings together countries with very different incomes and is struggling to implement economic and monetary integration mechanisms.

But hidden in this summit is a much more difficult question – one that is often skipped in the design process of the meeting “What do you need to know?” The free movement of persons is understood as one of the CEMAC’s important achievement. but how to apply free movement of goods and persons while open borders are still a threat to security and public safety between the neighboring countries. We need to ensure the transfer-ability of social security first, and perhaps additional security measures at the bloc’s external needed o regain control over the flows of people into the zone.

Source: Idriss Zackaria – Young Diplomats’ Africa Regional Director, reporting from N’Djamena, Chad

 

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Not many people are aware of the contributions made by several secret societies in shaping the world as we know today. For the most part, their endeavours are not justly recorded in our history books. The secret societies listed here have sometimes managed to push their country forward and sometimes backwards. Never-the-less, they helped shape the world. Now, let’s take a look into 10 secret societies that shaped our world:

10. The Germanenorden (Germany)

10 Secret Societies
Germanenorden established in 1812 was a society born out of their adversity towards Jews and their belief in the Aryan race superiority. Therefore it was not surprising when in 1916 they adopted the Swastika symbol. They recruited members based on evidences of their Aryan ancestry by proof of their birth certificates among other things, which was followed by initiation rituals where members were to dress up like nymphs, knights, kings et al. The group changed into the Thule Society in 1918 and assisted in defeating communalism. They further renamed themselves into the German Workers Party. In 1920 Adolf  Hitlertook over the society and made sure to do away the unnecessary absurd rituals.

9. Afrikaner Broederbond (South Africa)

10 Secret Societies
The Afrikaner Broederbond group, founded in 1918, went one step ahead and had actually aimed at seizing control over the whole of South Africa. Membership was only opened to white men over 25 years of age who were guided by their self-promoted Afrikaner nationalism seeking to dominate over the economy, culture and politics of South Africa. There managed to influence the Reunited National Party so much so that it irked the prime minister who called the party as “nothing more than the secret Afrikaner Broederbond operating in public.” And they started controlling the South African Bureau of Racial Affairs in 1947. Their rise to power was astounding and almost every important political person was a member of the society. This gave rise to a saying, “The South African government today is the Broederbond and the “Broederbond is the government.” It was only after Nelson Mandela’s election in 1994 that the society began seeing downhill. After this they renamed themselves into Afrikanerbond and now, are open to include members irrespective of their colour, religion, gender et al with a goal of making South Africa a better country.

8. The Carbonari (Italy)

10 Secret Societies
No one knows how or exactly when the Carbonari came into existence. But as speculation goes, it originated around the time when the Congress of Vienna was deciding on what to do with the territories conquered by Napoleon. By 1815, Italy was cut into several pieces. This Italian secret group is said to have had 60,000 members and they rose in revolt against King Ferdinand who was ruling over Sicily and Naples. He soon had to give up his power. This was followed by the whole of Italy rising up into a widespread movement that eventually ended in the unification of Italy in 1861.

7. La Trinitaria (Dominican Republic)

10 Secret Societies
The La Trinitaria, or The Trinity was founded in July 1838 in Dominican Republic which was under Haitian rule since the year 1822. The Republican citizen wanted freedom from the clutches of the Haitians. It was among such sentiments that Juan Pablo Duarte rose as a national leader and founded The Trinity. He was only 25 years old and his secret society comprised of only 8 members. The society aimed at spreading national sentiment and achieving independence. They used cryptic methods in communication and pseudonym to keep their existence hidden. Besides helping other rebel groups they had attempted at a revolution in 1843, which failed. The members were imprisoned while Duarte fled the country. But The Trinity’s audacious work had set the ball rolling and while they remained dormant, Republicans rose up a fought until Dominican Republic was declared free on February 27, 1844. Unfortunately, when Juan Pablo Duarte returned to preside over the country he had helped to create, he was overthrown by a military coup. Duarte died in exile in 1864.

6. The Hawaiian League (Hawaii)

The Hawaiian League (Hawaii)
The Hawaiian League was formed by 200 affluent Europeans and Americans discontented with the Hawaiian ruler King Kalakaua. They alleged the king of being too extravagant so they hatched a plan to overthrow the monarchy with backing from the American businessmen. In 1887, the secret society came into existence with a constitution written by Lorrin A. Thurston, though unfortunately the document didn’t survive the passage of time. With 405 members and alliance with the Honolulu Rifles, they managed to overthrow Queen Liliuokalani in the year 1893. For 5 years, Hawaii remained a republic until it became a territory of the US in 1898. In 1959 Hawaii was officially recognized as the 50th state of the US.

5. Filiki Etaireia (Greece)

10 Secret Societies
In 1814, Nikalaos Skoufas and Athanasios Tsakalov, together along with a few other merchants founded the Filiki Etaireia (“Friendly Brotherhood”) to overthrow the Ottoman rule in their country. The society took their ‘secret’ part very seriously and when one of their member named Nikolaos Galatis began beating drums out in the open about the existence of their society, he was murdered by the Brotherhood. The society had a very complicated recruiting system with six level of membership, the top level of which was occupied with men of great education and money. With the help of a Russian officer named Alexander Ypsilantis, the Brotherhood initiated the Greek Revolution in the Spring of 1821. Unfortunately, into the very beginning of the war, the secret society dissembled but the revolution ended with Greece winning their independence.

4. Katipunan (Philippines)

Katipuneros
Katipunan came into existance in the Philippines in 1892 with the goal of opposing the Spanish domination. The single worded name is actually the abbreviated form of Kataastaasan Kagalang-galang Na Katipunan Nang Manga Anak Nang Bayan that translates into the ‘Supreme Worshipful Association of the Sons of the People.’ This society had a male-only membership that was inherited by the sons from their fathers. They had all sorts of rituals and codes as expected form a secret society but the singularity of their rituals was that they signed every document with their own blood, beginning with their founding document back in July 7th 1892. For many years thousand of the members remained mum without giving a clue as to their existence to the Spanish authority. When their secret was out they overthrew their concealment and went for an all-out rebellion that ended with the Filipinos gaining their independence in June 12, 1898.

3. Irish Republican Brotherhood (Irb)

Irish People Staff
James Stephens along with a few other fellowmen founded the Irish Revolutionary Brotherhood on St Patrick’s Day in 1858. They had centers in as many as seven different countries – CanadaUSAEnglandAustralia (that was under the British Empire), New Zealand and South America. Each center had a colonel with nine captains, nine sergeants and nine privates. Each recruit knew only his superior so as to keep their identities hidden. By 1910, the brotherhood had several Irish members and under the leadership of Thomas Clarke rose up in revolt in 1916, now known as the Easter Rising. The rising, however, failed. A few years later IBR lead the Anglo-Irish war that eventually saw the Irish Free State being created in 1921.

2. The Black Hand (Serbia)

The Black Hand (Serbia)
Unification Or Death, was a Serbian organization better known as the Black Hand. It was founded on May 9, 1911 to fight against the Ottoman rule. All 2,500 members of the society took oath to put secrecy of the group before their own lives. They operated on different levels and took significant steps to make sure each member was not in contact with most of the other members so that when one member was caught he would have no information to offer about the other members. The Black Hand was leaded by Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijevic, also known as ‘Apis’ after the bull deity of Ancient Egypt. And it was he who planned the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand that led to the breaking out of World War I.

1. The Union Of Salvation (Russia)

Union of Salvation
The society was founded by six military officers and friends whose aims were, initially, rather vague and dissimilar form each other. When the Russian Czar died, the Union under the leadership of Pavel Pestel organised the Decembrist Uprising of 1825 to prevent his descendents from taking over the power. The uprising saw around three thousand Russians attempting to usurp Czar Nicholas I on his very first day in power which failed with disastrous consequence like censorship for press and education, establishment of spy networks et al. This uprising however was responsible for sowing the seeds for the next revolution, 100 years later in 1917, when the Russian Empire fell.

This article was written by Wonderlist and is available on there website on this link : https://www.wonderslist.com/10-secret-societies-shaped-world/

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Which countries have the strongest Military in Africa in 2017? African countries have been seriously challenged in 2016 with increasing terrorist activity (AQMI,Al-Shabab,ISIS,Boko Haram..) and more and more civil unrest (Central African Republic, Libya..). Things have changed a lot in the continent. Here is a situation overview of 2017.

10. Libya

The strength of Libya’s military comes mainly from its large cache of equipment, despite a relatively small number of active troops. Further hampering Libya’s abilities is the continuing violence and unrest stemming from the revolution which began in 2011. A stable government has yet to emerge from it. Regardless, the country still has available 2,500 armored fighting vehicles, 500 tanks, 600 towed artillery pieces, 6,500 logistical vehicles, and much more. The country strongman seems to be the General Haftar , which might won the civil war in 2018.

en.wikipedia.org

9. Angola 

The Angolan Armed Forces (FAA), headed by Chief of Staff Geraldo Nunda, succeeded the Armed Forces for the Liberation of Angola in 1991. It has three components: the army, the navy, and the air force. Its involvement in training the armies of Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau was controversial, especially as the leaders of the 2012 Guinea-Bissau coup d’etat cited Angola’s military mission as a primary reason for an uprising. The FAA owns 920 armored fighting vehicles, 140 tanks, 270 pieces of aircraft, and has a navy of 56 craft. Angolan Forces have been involved in fightings in the Angolan Province of Cabinda. Angola is a country where PetroPlus Overseas and its French director Vincent Miclet have a lot of influence (According to the latest book of Pierre Pean).  The revenues generated by oil sales and by PetroPlus Overseas dividendes to the Government permits Angola to have one of the strongest army of the continent

commons.wikimedia.org

8. Tunisia 

The Tunisian Armed Forces is composed of three mechanized brigades, one Saharan territorial group, one special forces group, and one military police regiment. They have contributed to peacekeeping missions, including during the Rwandan genocide, and were forced into border clashes with Libyan rebels in 2011 during their civil war. They hold 900 armored fighting vehicles, 350 tanks, a manpower of over five million, 139 pieces of aircraft and a total naval strength of 50. Tunisian has recently managed to have a stable government and reduce the ISIS threat on its Eastern Border. It’s armed forces are relatively small but efficient.

en.wikipedia.org

7. Morocco

Highly dependent on foreign equipment, the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces have been involved in the conflict with the POLISARO, a liberation movement fighting for the independence of Western Sahara. They are involved in numerous peacekeeping missions, including in Somalia. The military has at its disposal 2,120 armored fighting vehicles, 1,348 tanks, 323 total aircraft pieces, and a total naval strength of 121.  However Morroco is currently struggling with strong riots in the RIF region and there is nothing that its powerful army can do.

Shout-Africa.com

6. Kenya 

Kenya has established itself as a vital participant in international peacekeeping missions, and is able to do so due to its merchant marine strength and an enormous labor force – resulting in high available manpower. Though it doesn’t possess as much of its own equipment, its role as a member of international teams allows the Kenyan military to share resources with other countries, strengthening its own capabilities at the same time. On top of that Kenya established itself as one of the strongest democracy on the continent with South Africa. Future is bright for Kenya’s armed forces with a strong sense of leadership from its political leaders. The army was able to reduce significantly Al-Shabab impact in Somalia and permitted Kenyans to live more safely.

YNaija.com

5. Nigeria 

Due to its size, it’s no surprise that several hundred thousand troops comprise the Nigerian Armed Forces — army, navy, and air force. Like Algeria, an abundant domestic oil supply eases the financial burden of involvement in military conflict. Nigeria has more than 1,400 armored vehicles, 360 tanks, and 6,000 logistical vehicles at its disposal, as well as nearly 300 aircraft and 25 high-powered naval vessels. However this strong army has proven incapable of defending its citizens in Northern Nigeria against Boko Haram. Army seems prepared against conventional attacks but less for asymetrical warfare against insurgents.

BBC.co.uk

4. South Africa 

As it hasn’t been embroiled in an international military conflict for some time, South Africa uses its highly advanced military for peacekeeping and international cooperation. Its aircraft and naval vessels are notoriously well equipped with the latest technology, and though the country has less than 100,000 active front line personnel, it has the capabilities and manpower for much more. Add to that a vast array of land system technology, and the South African military is a force to be reckoned with.

TigraIOnline.com

 

3. Ethiopia 

As a landlocked country, Ethiopia has focused its resources on developing its army and air force to an impressive degree (the GFP doesn’t penalize landlocked countries for not having a naval force). Several hundred thousand personnel make up its current force, and it has significant numbers of land and air systems at its disposal. An enormous population allows Ethiopia to maintain a large fighting force, and gives the country one of the greatest militaries on the continent. The Army has however difficulties in containing popular uprisings throughout the country that turned into local militias. Army seems not prepared for asymetrical warfare.

en.wikipedia.org

2. Algeria 

As Algeria has a large maritime border, it has developed all its military capabilities to an impressively modern degree, including its land, sea, and air forces. Algeria’s active frontline personnel number more than 127,000 troops and it has nearly 2,000 armored fighting vehicles at its disposal. Algeria also has the added benefit of its own oil reserves, allowing it to use its own fuel to power tanks, aircraft carriers, naval vessels, and more. However lacks of Leadership in Algeria may be an obstacle for setting objective to this powerful Army. The army in Algeria is the only entity able to oppose effectively Islamic Forces (that almost took over the country after the independance).

En.Wikipedia.org

1. Egypt 

Egypt puts itself over the top with regard to military strength due to the sheer size of its armed forces. Nearly 500,000 personnel serve on its active frontline force, far surpassing all its African counterparts. It has nearly 10,000 armored fighting vehicles, 60,000 logistical vehicles, 900 aircraft, and large oil reserves from which to draw. The military has been somewhat undermined in the wake of the Egyptian Revolution, but after the Tammarod coup is stronger than ever. Morsi in Prison and Sissi in Power, the Army is controlling the country. Egyptians forces are involved in the Libyan Civil War with tacit support for General Haftar. Most importantly Egyptians forces are engaged in a total war in the Sinai Region against Daesh Elements. Egyptians Army seems unefficient when it come to dismantle ISIS and Hamas cells in the Sinai Region. Army suffered heavy losses in 2016 and 2017 in the Sinai.

During my early years at school, “Oil Curse” was the term I heard repeatedly, but was incapable of comprehending exactly what this famous expression that is customarily labeled the Arab States or better to say the oil rich nations implied.

What is the Oil Curse?

Eventually, I have figured out that the curse spanning from Oil is dealing with my society and those of our neighbors in the region. Apparently, oil curse refers to the disadvantageous ramifications it institutes in an oil dependent society in terms of economy, education, politics,…etc. it is the paradox that although such peoples have plenty of natural resources and must in line be rich with respect to economy but conversely such states have less economic growth, less democracy and poor economic performance than those with fewer natural resources. Indisputably, undermining considerations to the unfavorable consequences that a sole “oil dependent economy” brings to society can evidently bring about a passive and to a large range an illiterate community.

Kurdistan

With that being said, laziness, ignorance and illiteracy can immeasurably be noticed in the oil dependent states “Middle East” to name one. People in this part of the world do not seem to concern about industrialization, technological advancements and inventions, thanks to the incalculably flow of money that is although not equally distributed among the civilian population, but yet brings about a passive society. The Kurdistan region “Iraqi Kurdistan” is with deep regret similar to such oil dependent states. Within the collapse of Saddam Hussain’s regime and in the after of the formation of Iraqi constitution, Kurdistan became an autonomous and federal region within the new Iraq and hence in 2006, Kurdistan started out investing oil in its territories while giant companies were invited to explore oil and invest. Kurdistan has as a matter of fact, been prosperous in discovering and exporting its own oil, but failed to bring forth an advanced and well developed economic system independent of oil alone. In other terms, Kurdistan regional government must have from the start sought to look for other alternatives in the process of building the foundations of its economy than merely relying on oil that brought about the curse I am addressing here.

In terms of economy, one of the implications of Oil dependence in Kurdistan was what we have seen after the oil price fall downs in 2014. KRG subsequently reduced the amount of the salary it used to provide to its emplyees to a quarter of the usual amount. From the moment the paychecks were reduced, it was said that Kurdistan has been in undergoing a content state economic crisis up to now. Thus, it is the result of Oil Curse and that KRG was unaware of constructing a powerful and long standing economy in case of oil price drops. Furthermore, the fact that KRG disregarded promoting substitutions to oil as the only economic source also pitched in to the sever economic circumstance Kurdistan is struggling with at the moment. The lack of time might not allow me address how reliant our people are on paychecks the government provides and that thereby passivate the people from sufficiently acquiring skills, conducting research and deal with inventions. I dare to mention that every year tens of thousands of students graduate from universities and institutions and the majority of those tend to seek in employment from government and as a result benefit from the money the government has that spanned from Oil. It is while, such class can and should instead look for other ways such as opening their own business “monopolized by political parties though”, doing research, or concern with inventing something.

So, every single person in the Middle East and In Kurdistan in Particular must be aware of the ramifications Oil Curse has on society and people. KRG must as soon as possible offer other alternatives for it is economic source such as promoting agricultural sector, tourism, and more substantially industrialization than solely relying on oil.

 

Ramiar Jamal

Master student, majoring in international politics, Milan/Italy.

 

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Catalonians had a referendum on the 1st of October as a step towards the separation from Spain in the hopes of an independent, free republic. Whilst the referendum did take place, it was dismissed on several grounds, one being that it was not constitutional. The referendum had a response of 90% voting for the separation of Spain, whilst only 10% voted against it. Whilst locally, it is perceived as a mere effort towards realizing the right to self-determination, its effects are significant both nationally and internationally.

The Catalonian push for independence sets the precedent for the push for the right to self-determination in Europe.

Catalonia: What is this independence about? 

The modern autonomy of Catalonia is derived from the Statute of Autonomy, after which Catalonia was reorganized as an Autonomous community. In 2006, Catalonia was able to amend the Statute of Autonomy to expand the authority of the existing Catalan government. Between 2012 and 2013, there were numerous gatherings of the Catalonian people: a more direct means of pushing for the independence of Catalonia. The government of Artur Mas also regarded the 2015 Catalonian government election as a referendum on the independence of Catalonia. The referendum of 2017 is different, however, due to multiple grounds. This is the first time that Catalonia has called for a referendum explicitly- all other attempts have been implicit. On the other hand, this is the first time that Catalonia has challenged the constitution. The Catalonia Statute of Autonomy dictates that any change to the Status of Catalonia must be done with a two-thirds majority in the Catalonian Parliament. At the same time, any move for independence that affects the territorial integrity of Spain, especially when carried out with its consent, is considered a grave violation of the Spanish Constitution of 1978. Thus, by violating the constitution, this is the first time Catalonia is so blatantly contradicting Spanish values enshrined in its constitution.

The regional effect is, of course, greater tensions. Because of such a violation of the Spanish constitution, Prime Minister Rajoy would now be able to enact article 155 of the constitution. This will enact a direct rule on Catalonia- the results will be disastrous. Clashes between the Spanish police and citizens during the referendum occurred already, with hundreds injured. These are clashes just under status quo. If this is the case under status quo, the situation with direct control (mainly military) over Catalonia would be horrific. Thus, the projection is that if PM Rajoy is to assume such constitutional powers, Spain can devolve into a state of conflict-not an option to an economically handicapped country.

Internationally, once again, the effects are disastrous.

The collapse of Spain is a part of the sequence of activities heralding the fall of the European Union. BREXIT has already happened. Italy, Netherlands, and Greece are other countries that are contemplating the future of their status in the European Union. The collapse of another giant would add to the atmosphere of uncertainty over Europe. This worrying prospect would mean lower investment opportunities because profit-making businesses are not able to maximise profits in a situation of uncertainty and therefore low business confidence. This will spell lower growth rates for countries in the EU. Moreover, it leaves the entire economic and political system of the Union under great vulnerability, which  if it comes down, can have a disastrous effect on the European nations and countries that have economic and political ties with Europe due to the increasing levels of integration of countries with globalization.

Pushes of independence and violence clashes

These actions set the precedent for pushes of independence, and violent clashes elsewhere in Europe as well. The case in point is Cyprus. Although the Republic of Cyprus is the main representative for the people of Cyprus, the Turkish military invasion has led to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus gaining defacto control over the area. The Catalonian push for independence sets the precedent for the push for the right to self-determination in Europe. The problem is the means with which this push for the realization of the right to self-determination is achieved. As you can see, the referendum in Catalonia did not have the participation of all voters (just 42% voted), and it was a contradiction of the constitution; the consequent opposition to the referendum led to hostility, violence, and suspicion. Similarly, with countries still recovering (or suffering) from economic stagnation in Europe, challenging the authority of the government will become increasingly apparent with movements following Catalonia’s example. A possible replay of the Arab Spring, I may be so bold to call the recent events and projected future events as such, would lead to the degradation of Europe’s security further- a cost it simply cannot incur with the magnitude and frequency of radical Islamist sleeper cell attacks across the continent.

The people of Catalonia view the monarchy, King Felipe, as biased towards the central government in place. This minor issue is representative of the bigger, more serious picture- the obvious lack of trust of Catalonia in the Spanish Central Government. Thus to bridge the two parties, negotiation becomes pivotal which may result in the restoration of the dying ties between Catalonia and the Spanish government, through diplomacy and compromise.

It will definitely be intriguing to see what stance the government of Spain will take. Will they stick to their original plan? Or will they yield to the views of the Catalonian people? Or is there a middle ground between the views of the government and the claims of the right to self-determination of the Catalonian people?

Isuru Abeysekara


Isuru Abeysekara is a 19-year-old who just graduated from high school in Sri Lanka. He is involved in MUN, debating and several community service projects in his locality. His interests include economics, animal welfare and international peace and security.

 

 

 

 

www.young-diplomats.com
Catalan lawmakers voted on Friday to declare independence from Spain but Madrid moved swiftly to quash the breakaway bid in a sharp escalation of a crisis causing jitters in secession-wary Europe.
www.young-diplomats.com
The New Iberian Peninsula?
Credit : https://netivist.org

As thousands of pro-independence activists cheered outside, the regional parliament in Barcelona passed a resolution declaring Catalonia “a republic in the form of an independent and sovereign state”. Demonstrators broke out in ecstatic shouts of: “Independence!” as the vote count was announced, while MPs cheered, clapped and embraced before breaking out in the Catalan anthem.

Urging Spaniards to “remain calm” as the country heads into the unknown, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy insisted “the rule of law will restore legality in Catalonia”.Rajoy held a crisis meeting of his cabinet after the Senate gave his government powers to impose direct rule on the wealthy, semi-autonomous region. Madrid’s allies in the European Union and the United States rallied behind him, voicing alarm over the latest developments in the long-running standoff, and voicing their support for a united Spain.

‘Dark day for democracy’ 

The Catalan resolution, which analysts say the region has no legal power to execute, was passed by 70 votes to 10.There were two abstentions, but dozens of opposition MPs had walked out before the secret ballot in the 135-seat assembly, where 68 votes constitute a majority.

One lamented “a dark day” for democracy, and shares in Spanish companies, particularly Catalan banks, dropped sharply after the vote.Catalonia, a region of about 7.5 million people, accounts for about 16 percent of Spain’s population, a fifth of its economic output and attracts more foreign tourists than anywhere else in the country.The measures approved by the Senate under Article 155 of the constitution —  designed to rein in rebels among Spain’s 17 regions — could see Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont, his deputy and regional ministers out of a job by Saturday.

‘Rebellion’ charges 

Spain’s prosecuting authority also announced it would file charges of “rebellion” — punishable by up to 30 years in jail — against Puigdemont next week.Madrid could also seize control of Catalonia’s civil service, police and finances — measures that would remain in place until a new parliament is elected. But senators opted not to interfere with Catalonia’s public radio and television.Popping bottles of cava, Catalan sparkling wine, pro-secessionists waved the red-and-yellow Catalan flag and cheered as the vote count came up on big screens outside the regional parliament building, then sang the region’s anthem with raised fists.

In a bar in Madrid, however, lunch-goers were not happy, with several shouting “to jail with them all!” at the TV screen.EU President Donald Tusk insisted Madrid “remains our only interlocutor” in Spain after the independence vote that could test the stability of a key member of the bloc.Wary of nationalist and secessionist sentiment, particularly after Britain’s dramatic decision last year to leave the EU, the bloc has stood firmly behind Madrid in the escalating standoff.

Call for restraint

Tusk nevertheless urged Madrid to exercise restraint.”I hope the Spanish government favours force of argument, not argument of force,” he tweeted.Puigdemont also urged calm.

“We will have to maintain the momentum of this country (Catalonia) in the coming hours,” he told lawmakers and onlookers in Barcelona, while urging them to do so in the spirit of “peace, civic responsibility and dignity”.The United States, one of Spain’s Nato allies, declared its backing for Madrid using “constitutional measures to keep Spain strong and united”.Germany, France, and Britain, too, rejected the notion of Catalan independence.

To the wire

There are deep concerns over the economic impact of the showdown, with nearly 1,700 companies having recently moved their legal headquarters out of Catalonia, a region with an economic output equivalent to that of Portugal. Catalan resentment at Madrid’s perceived interference has been building for years, culminating in an October 1st independence vote deemed illegal by the central government and the courts.

The 2008 economic crisis has compounded the bitterness, with Catalans feeling they contribute more to the central purse than they get back.But while fiercely protective of their language, culture and autonomy — restored at the end of the 1939-1975 dictatorship of Francisco Franco — Catalans are deeply divided on independence.Catalan authorities said 90 percent voted “Yes” in the unregulated plebiscite now held up by secessionist leaders as a mandate for independence.Only about 43 percent of voters turned out, however, with many anti-secessionists staying away and others prevented from casting their ballot by Spanish police in a crackdown that turned violent.

By AFP’s Daniel Bosque with Daniel Silva in Madrid

Original Article : https://www.thelocal.es/20171027/catalonia-declares-independence-but-spains-allies-back-madrid

Despite the announcement by the Hamas leadership that it was willing to disband the administrative committee for the Gaza Strip, which was founded six months ago as an act of defiance against PA President Mahmoud Abbas, the road to Palestinian reconciliation is still long.

Moreover, it is quite likely that Hamas has maneuvered skillfully, and has successfully caught Abbas and the PA in a honey trap, since if the PA-led Palestinian government returns to Gaza, it will assume the heavy responsibility for reconstruction in the Gaza Strip and the welfare of the population. This is liable to divert public criticism from Hamas to the Palestinian government. Israel has no substantive influence on the current maneuvers for reconciliation in the Palestinian arena, and should not intervene in them at this stage. At the same time, the PA is still the most comfortable partner for Israel in reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, following many years of cooperation in the civilian and security spheres.

The announcement by the Hamas leadership of its willingness to disband the administrative committee for the Gaza Strip, which was founded six months ago as an act of defiance against Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, resulted from a buildup of internal and external pressure and constraints on the organization. In its announcement, Hamas stressed that it was responding to the Egyptian effort to achieve internal Palestinian reconciliation, based primarily on the principal understandings achieved with the mediation of Egyptian intelligence: the Gaza Strip administrative committee, a quasi-alternative government, will be dismantled; the Palestinian government headed by Rami Hamdallah will be invited immediately to the Gaza Strip to fulfill its duties; general elections will be held; Hamas accepts the Egyptian invitation to discuss implementation of the 2011 Cairo agreement with Fatah; a national unity government will be formed on the basis of a partnership between the Palestinian factions that signed the agreement; and Abbas will cancel the sanctions he imposed on the Gaza Strip.

The road to reconciliation is still long. Past efforts at reconciliation, including the Mecca agreement (February 2007), the Sana’a declaration (August 2008), the Cairo agreement (May 2011), the Doha declaration (February 2012), and the Gaza agreement (April 2014), as well as other declarations and announcements designed to provide a basis for healing the rift between Fatah and Hamas, and between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, have all failed. Yet while prospects for the latest effort appear slim, it cannot be totally ruled out that the current circumstances will yield a different result.

In practice, Hamas is the sovereign ruler in the Gaza Strip, and as such, is responsible for the extreme distress of the population, the soaring unemployment, and the humanitarian crisis there. From a regional perspective, for some time Hamas has waged a political battle for survival, after having been left with problematic allies: Iran, whose ability to provide aid is limited; Turkey; and Qatar. Hamas’s announcement fits in well with the trend in its policy over the past year of seeking legitimacy in the Palestinian, regional, and global arenas. In this context, the burden of its governmental responsibility for the Gaza population, combined with its military and ideological resistance to Israel, has only grown. The document of principles issued by the organization in May reflected pragmatic moderation over the 1988 Hamas Covenant, and a switch from an emphasis on Islamic religious ideology to an emphasis on national political discourse. The revised document is designed to position Hamas as a legitimate player in the Palestinian and international arenas, and to pave the way for repairing relations with Egypt. Recent developments relating to the internal Palestinian arena should thus also be considered through this prism.

 

Egypt has three motives for the massive pressure on Hamas to disband the administrative committee and resume reconciliation talks: the drive to regain its leading status in the Arab world and the role of mediator in the Arab-Israeli conflict; the desire to dictate policy to Hamas; and the fear of being an outcast in the Arab world because it remained indifferent to Palestinian suffering in the Gaza Strip. For its part, Hamas surrendered to Cairo’s demands regarding security of their common border; a halt to cooperation with the Islamic State in Sinai; extradition of wanted Islamic State operatives; and sealing the tunnels, including those not in use, and stationing the PA presidential guard at the Gaza Strip border crossings. Tightening the connection with Egypt is the key to what Hamas’s leadership regards as most important of all at the present time – salaries for the 35,000 Hamas government workers to be paid by the PA, opening the Rafah border crossing to regular traffic, including movement of people and goods, and a steady supply of electricity to ease the severe humanitarian distress in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, Egypt benefited from Abbas’s efforts to maintain good relations with it in order to keep Egypt as an anchor for future diplomatic maneuvers. From now on, Egypt will be effectively involved in carrying out any agreement.

 

Given its internal strategic predicament, Hamas had to yield to Abbas’s demand for a return of the Palestinian government to the Gaza Strip in order to renew the flow of essential funds. This move by Hamas, however, poses a difficult dilemma for Abbas: if the Palestinian government  under the military control of Hamas  indeed returns to the Gaza Strip, it will have to assume the heavy responsibility for reconstruction in the Gaza Strip and the welfare of the population. This is liable to divert public criticism from Hamas to the Palestinian government. Moreover, currently Abbas has no interest in either general elections, which he might well lose, or Hamas joining the PLO institutions, as stipulated in the Cairo agreement. If he refuses to fulfill his part of the understandings, he will be accused of thwarting reconciliation, which will arouse the anger of Egypt.

 

Fatah is already celebrating a victory (one senior official referred to “Hamas with its tail between its legs”), because the agreement is perceived as the result of the intensified sanctions against the Gaza Strip and Hamas in recent months. However, implementation of the reconciliation process and the restoration of the PA government’s effective control of the Gaza Strip is very unlikely. Hamas will not readily cede its most important strategic assets – its independent military power and its security control of the Gaza Strip – and the PA government will be subject to the good will of Hamas. Under these conditions, Hamas is disavowing civil responsibility for residents of the Gaza Strip and putting the entire burden on the PA, without the PA being able to fulfill this responsibility. The result stands to be a decline in Abbas’s status and the legitimacy of his government, and the acceptance of Hamas’s demands constitutes recognition of the organization’s enhanced status as a full, albeit junior, partner of Fatah in the Palestinian government.

 

Since the selection of Yahya Sinwar as head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Ismail Haniyeh as head of Hamas’s political bureau, the organization’s leadership has been in the hands of natives of the Gaza Strip, who are more sensitive to the events and hard times there, in contrast to the previous leadership led by Khaled Mashal, who is from the West Bank. Despite more militant opposition led by Mashal and Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’s leadership is moving the organization steadily in directions indicative of institutionalization and awareness of popular opinion. The military element and behavior patterns of a terrorist organization remain prominent, but they are curbed by the prevailing circumstances, and the Israeli deterrent against attempts to undermine the security calm is apparently still effective.

 

Although his name was not mentioned in the Hamas announcement, it appears that Mohammed Dahlan will assume an important role in the process, both as an emissary of Egypt, which is suspicious of Hamas, and the United Arab Emirates, and as the one responsible for the reconstruction funds. The inclusion of Dahlan in the new order is likely to make it easier for Hamas and Israel to expedite the reconstruction process in the Gaza Strip: it will be easier for both sides to operate through Dahlan, rather than directly. The importance of Dahlan, a bitter enemy and a threat to the status of Abbas, does not add to Abbas’s peace of mind. It is possible that in order to make the initiative more palatable to Fatah, Dahlan will operate through Samir Mashharawi, his right hand man.

 

Israel has no substantive influence on the current maneuvers for reconciliation in the Palestinian arena, and should not intervene in them at this stage. Israel is seeking to maintain its deterrence against Hamas and prevent the next round of violent conflict, or at least delay it for as long as possible. In addition to defense measures, such a building a new barrier along the Gaza Strip border, it is important and morally correct that Israel reduce as much as possible the humanitarian distress in the Gaza Strip, and help improve the population’s welfare and quality of life. At this stage, there is no change in the political view of Hamas: it refuses to recognize Israel, put aside its “weapon of resistance,” and be a full partner in a settlement based on the two-state principle. It is therefore desirable for Israel to demand that measures for more comprehensive reconstruction in the Gaza Strip, in which it will be a partner, be made contingent on a prolonged security lull and a halt in Hamas’s military buildup.

 

Some will regard the Hamas announcement and the processes led by Egypt toward internal Palestinian reconciliation as an achievement for the hard-line policy of Abbas and the positions taken by Fatah and the PA. However, it is quite likely, rather, that Hamas has maneuvered skillfully, given the approach of its current leadership, and has successfully caught Abbas and the PA in a honey trap. Nonetheless, and despite the doubts concerning the PA’s ability to fulfill its obligations in the Gaza Strip according to the understandings, the PA is still the most comfortable partner for Israel in rebuilding the Gaza Strip, following many years of cooperation in the civilian and security spheres. If the PA is unable to return to the Gaza Strip, Israel will have to deal officially with Hamas, as it has done in practice in recent years. Israel’s interest mandates aid for reconstruction in the Gaza Strip and acceleration of the process, while trying to enlist Egypt in the undertaking and carefully overseeing the use of the raw materials sent into the Gaza Strip for reconstruction purposes.

This article was written by Gilead SherKobi MichaelLiran Ofek and published on the INSS website and available at this link :

http://www.inss.org.il/publication/hamas-toward-palestinian-reconciliation-abdication-governmental-responsibility/?utm_source=activetrail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=INSS%20Insight%20No.%20973

This article is a continuation of the previous article : Impact of SSBN on security : A case of India Part I

DOCTRINAL REQUIREMENT  

World Nuclear Weapons Stockpile

Are SSBNs commissioned?

SSBNs are commissioned not because the enemy has it but because the doctrine determines that it is needed. So, often doctrinal and policy level changes have accompanied their acquisition. Once inducted the way the submarine is deployed and how the security establishment articulates its usage determines its effectiveness. The aim is to get the other state do something they wouldn’t have done earlier or to enhance the security and thereby reduce the effectiveness of the threat levelled by an opponent.

Not all states need them. SAAB Kockums A-23[1] is a much suitable platform for littoral warfare in a European context. It can deploy saboteurs but also easily navigate the fjords and adjust according to the changes in salt content in water, temperature change, etc.

The Case of India

India’s NFU (No First Use) policy in nuclear doctrine made SSBN acquisition the next logical step (Crail & Lindsey, 2009). At this point of time, the general West led order is not securitising the rise of Indian military capabilities and hence this is an opportune moment for policymakers to scale up SSBN capability without being seen as a threat by West. This would appear as matching up to China before it deploys its SSBNs on deterrence patrols.

Nuclear Weapons Factsheet
Credit : Visual Capitalist

The Triad

The nuclear Triad

SSBNs complete the triad of land, air, and sea-based deterrence. While each has its benefits, underwater weapons are the fastest to launch and easy to hide. Their only issue is range and detection of the submarine once missiles have been fired.

“Intercontinental ballistic missiles provide prompt response, bombers provide flexibility, and submarines provide survivability” (Mies, 1999)

As per offensive realism, states are power maximizing agents and as per defensive realism states seek status quo. Offensive realism says states want hegemony and defensive realism implies that: excessive accumulation would compel other(s) to take countermeasures (Wohlworth, 2010). SSBNs can be seen as hegemonic as they nullify the strength of land-based ICBMs of the enemies and the cruise missiles that could have taken out the mobile launchers. They change the rules and incentivise behavior of ambiguity on the part of the enemy.

SSBNs are also instrumental for a state that cannot field a conventional force at par with the adversary. (Mies, 1999)

An assured and established hegemon may not pursue SSBNs. It is the hegemon that feels threatened by the power of another and develops SSBNs as a deterrent and, show, of its second strike capability. Further, the presence of a hegemon also incentivizes the development of SSBNs as a guarantee against its threats and coercions as it can take out all nuclear weapons of the lesser power in the first strike. Some would be left in the SSBNs for a credible second strike. This knowledge would hence prevent the attack against the lesser power.

Nuclear Power and the Hegemon 

On the other hand for a hegemon;

“Nuclear weapons serve as a hedge against an uncertain future, a guarantee of our security commitments to allies, and a disincentive to those who would contemplate developing or otherwise acquiring their own nuclear weapons.” – A National Security Strategy for a New Century, 1998 (Mies, 1999)

SSBNs also make for efficient machines and are faster, cleaner as there is fission going on in the reactors. Greater access is ensured as most of the seas are part of global commons and there is no need for regular refuelling and the life of submarines also comes to a close earlier than ships.

SSBNs become important as India inches towards its goal of becoming a blue water navy.

A submarine is most vulnerable to detection and destruction when in the harbour or a crowded zone near harbour with a high density of maritime activity but in deep seas, it is free to move. Nuclear power allows this freedom and safety not just to the submarine but also to the warheads.

Unlike a carrier that needs a carrier battle group to provide an umbrella of safety, a submarine is de facto autonomous for its safety requirements because it moves undetected and carries a payload to destroy major sections of a state and has its complement of torpedoes and mines. The greatest threat to a submarine is aircraft based ASW platforms and maritime patrol aircrafts that deploy sonobuoys and torpedoes. This can be offsetted by deploying anti-aircraft SAMs on subs, but that would give away the submarine location.

SSBNs need support infrastructure to use them to the best of their capability.

There is a need for nuclear sanitisation chambers, demagnetization facilities, missile storage and loading, caverns to ensure that submarines are not noticed when they are entering or leaving the base (Kristensen, China SSBN Fleet Getting Ready – But For What?, 2014), allowing the ambiguity of their location or deployment. China has bases at Qingdao (Kristensen & FAS, 2006) and Hainan (Tweed, 2014) with these facilities. India is building INS Varsha at Rambili for this purpose. Also, are needed VLF (very low frequency) and ELF (extremely low frequency) communication facilities on land to maintain communication. During a war these facilities need protection. (VLF Transmitting Station Commissioned at Tamil Nadu, 2014) Also needed is the training of the crew to operate a nuclear submarine with expertise, which can take years to master.

Possession of SSBNs and the political will to use them to successively retaliate is possible if some nuclear forces, warheads, and systems of delivery in close proximity survive and being close these three can fire the systems. The probability of this happening is highest in SSBN.

“The basic theory of an SSBN is that it can hide in the vastness of the ocean and therefore it is almost impossible to predict where it may be or it may not be possible to detect it at all.” –  (McDevit, 2016)

The mating of warhead and delivery system is a significant step, and in the submarine, it is mated by default. To avoid an unintentional firing different countries have different launch protocols. While states like the USA take to multiple levels of redundancy (Merrill, Syeed, & Harris, 2017).

UK depends on the authority of PM or person designated. China and India are creating their protocols. In the case of China, the Rocket Forces handle this part (McDevit, 2016).

The SLBM is a ballistic missile. It can have MIRVs (multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles) and like most nuclear warheads will have a cloud of missile defence umbrella (Taylor, Tamerlani, & Farnsworth, 2013).

INFLUENCE AT LEVELS OTHER THAN STATE 

SSBNs function at the level of states but have an impact at the level of individuals and societies as well. States use them but there is a community of nuclear submariners that operate these and then there is a community of submarine builders that eke a living by working at shipyards. There is also a question of their job security and the job security of nuclear engineers and marine engineers who specialize in nuclear submarine construction and maintenance. The design bureaus and the corporations that build them make profits but in states like India and Russia the lead integrators are state owned, but a lot of work is subcontracted to the private sector. Incidents like the Kursk where more than a hundred submariners were lost are a constant reminder of the effects of improper maintenance (Gidadhubli, 2000). This is a more insecure situation than not possessing SSBNs: the loss of nuclear reactors and warheads in the deep sea. The environmental ramifications and human losses are irreversible, and they can occur in wars where both sides deploy these platforms.

SSBNs have emerged in the age of states because the technological revolution of Industrialisation

3.0 has coincided with the modern post-colonial era. Even if states didn’t exist one day or had not existed at all, the level of technological advancement in the presence of the overarching rivalry between powerful organisations capable of fighting wars would have led to their advent. In this day and age, they, however, reinforce sovereignty and state security.

CONCLUSION 

The world of submarines has moved a long way from the days of Nikonov[2]’s submarine for Peter the Great and America’s Turtle, Alligator and Intelligent Whale[3]. But SSBNs have created a world of their own with the capability to destroy sections of humanity while moving silently hidden under the seas. The submarine has redefined its role from a tactical vehicle to a strategic asset. States have sought them in the name of enhancement of strategic capability, but they are also psychological warfare systems. An impression is sent to the adversary that the balance has tilted and is not easy to offset. By procuring a similar system, the adversary can at the very best place the other in a similar situation. The credibility of threat and the uncertainty of the extent of truth can lead to miscalculation and unnecessary adventures (Kumar, 2009). Often emergency politics incentivises assumptions and presumptions.

A ‘term insurance’ can be used only when the insured person is no more but a life insurance matures at the end of its period, and the insured get a sum of money that they would have got if the issue covered in insurance had happened. SSBNs were developed as term insurances for security, but greed can lead to them being used as life insurances.  

 

Jyoti Ranjan Pradhan

Jyoti Ranjan Pradhan

Will join MA in Security and Diplomacy studies at Tel Aviv University (2017-18) on October 16, 2018.
Have studied International Relations for two semesters at South Asian University, New Delhi.
B. Tech in Mechanical Engineering.

This paper looks at SSBNs (Ship Submersible, ballistic, nuclear) with India in mind. India planned to build nuclear-enabled propulsion in the 1970s and launched its SSBN; INS Arihant on July 26, 2009 (Kumar, 2009). Before this India has operated two SSNs both named INS Chakra, on lease from USSR (Jiampietro, 1988) and Russia respectively. The second of which is currently in service. India also has two more SSBNs at different stages of development (Davenport, 2015). 

Scheme of a nuclear Submarine.

What are SSBNs?

While many have claimed this development to be in response to China’s capability in this domain, the Indian SSBN has become a reason for Pakistan to seek similar platforms (Singh, 2012).

SSBNs are strategic platforms. States like India would not want to depend on a security umbrella for their strategic needs because often the dependence has its limitations and costs. Also, a threat can never be properly understood till it manifests in one form and then also there is no guarantee that it will manifest in the same form again. While attempting to address security concerns, SSBNs enlarge the perception of retribution to others. It is a promise that there will be a reply in kind if red lines are crossed.

By securitization theory, the referent object, in this case, is a state, but during a war, the referent object can change based on the perception of the leadership (Peoples & Vaughan-Williams, 2015). If there is significant damage to the national security architecture that disables the conventional defensive capabilities, a state may be compelled to take actions that it might have reserved for a nuclear attack on its territory. Nuclear weapons are a product of securitisation against an enemy that has nuclear weapons or a latent capacity to develop them.

India is the newest entrant to the club of SSBN operators but its weapon systems, primarily the SLBMs; K-15 and K-4 have not been fully operationalized (Gady, 2016).The Nirbhay and submarine-launched Brahmos cruise missiles are under development (Davenport, 2015). Within the region, India is fairly status quo-ist (Ahmed, 2014) but in the wider world, it is revisionist (Paranjpe, 2013), in that it seeks a place at the UN Security Council and seeks exceptions from the world order to make India a more mainstream power. India has been moving away from the bracket of NAM and other Afro-Asian countries (Paranjpe, 2013). The possession of SSBNs doesn’t make it a global power; it does expand the region of influence.

Focus on Delivery Platforms

In a world where most advanced possessors of atomic bombs are not testing the bombs anymore, the scope for improvement of bomb design and effectiveness is theoretical and untested (Clarke, 2004) but this has led to greater focus on improvement of delivery platforms. SSBNs derive their primacy from the ultimately destructive nature of thermonuclear warheads that they carry (Clarke, 2004).

SSBNs derive their primacy from the ultimately destructive nature of thermonuclear warheads that they carry

During the cold war, security studies were preoccupied with the four Ss, namely, states, strategy, science and status quo (Williams, 2008). The SSBN, popularly called ballistic missile submarine or a boomer reflects this thinking very well. It defends the state, is always a strategic asset(in most countries the submarines are operated by the Navy, but the strategic forces always have a hand. Ex. India, China, USA, Russia) (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Under New START | Arms Control Association, 2017). When the first nuclear submarine the USS Nautilus was completed in 1955, it weighed around 2800 tons, cost $40,000,000. (Nautilus Goes to Sea to Test Equipment, 1955)  (Submarine Force Museum Home of Historic Ship Nautilus, 2017) and produced enough energy for a city of 20000. (New Machines and Gadgets, 1956). The Indian Arihant is 6000 tons, and its birth has taken place at a time when China is increasingly becoming more assertive and is expanding its maritime assets to the Indian Ocean, the way Soviet navy was asserting itself in the 1960s.

The Power of Submarines

SSBNs have often led to the greater accumulation of submarines by competitive powers. The USS Nautilus was a technological marvel, and it distorted the existing status quo compelling the USSR to come up with its first nuclear-powered submarine. None of them were SSBNs. They were torpedo attack submarines. The first SSBN was the USS George Washington commissioned in 1959 which was followed by the K-19 of USSR. With both powers building up their SSBN fleets a form of dynamic equilibrium came into being with the USA always having an edge regarding number of submarines deployed and range of SLBMs on board (Blair, Feiveson, & Hippel, 1997)

Often, to reemphasize security and inform your opponent of your capabilities, there is an effort of the overt display by organizing exercises or publicly announcing successful missile or weapons commissioning. But in the case of SSBNs, it is about staying hidden with the capacity to hit at the deepest cores of the enemy for it carries SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles). India did not even officially declare the commissioning of Arihant. Though every future or tentative opponent has an idea of the ships and submarines of its enemy, what’s unclear is the capability and capacity of the opponent. The critical issue is not just the submarines theoretical capability but also the crew’s ability to use the submarine to its highest potential. This requires ample training and capacity development through regular exercises and deployments. The aim is to fit into the doctrine of the state and attaining the laid down objectives. While during cold war there was an accumulation spree. SSBN effectiveness is increased by greater stealth. They, however, can be supplemented by larger number of SSNs and SSKs (diesel-electric hunter-killer submarines)

SLBMs, considered safer from a first strike than land-based ICBM, are a backup deterrent (Kristensen & FAS, China’s Nuclear Missile Submarine Base, 2006). They guarantee a second strike and the destruction of human life at a magnitude that has not happened in the recorded history and hence prevent the first strike by an opponent. A situation is created where the possessor is seen as a threat by those well beyond the borders as a nuclear submarine is only constrained in range and endurance by the amount of supplies (food) it can carry. SSBNs can create their oxygen, and all personnel on board carry an emergency supply with themselves. SLBMs allow a willingness to absorb the first strike and then hit back. This stems from a realization that the enemy can successfully deploy and detonate a nuclear warhead on the territory of the said state. SLBMs are retaliatory weapons. This happens to be the rationale behind India’s quest for SSBNs. These platforms provide a flexibility of reaching any point on earth. The farthest place on land from the seas is Lat. 46º16.8’N, Long. 86º40.2’E in Dzungarian Basin in China at 2,648 km (Land farthest from sea, 2017). So with a 3000 km, SLBM like the K-4, any place on earth can be targeted. They are less likely to be pre-empted or tracked than ship-based, flight based or land based ICBMs. (Kumar, 2009)

Having an SSBN is not a promise of credible sea-based deterrence.

Having an SSBN is not a promise of credible sea-based deterrence. The enemy may well know the positions of submarines if it has been quietly trailing the few SSBNs that a country might possess. This is especially the case when the adversary is advanced in quantitative and more essentially technologically qualitative ways.

Possessions of SSBNs can always be construed as a threat, but their non-possessing can also lead to a situation of absence of deterrence, for other platforms can be more easily compromised. A state can tilt the balance so against itself in a total war situation that it will have to surrender as was in the case of Japan in World War II.

Jyoti Ranjan Pradhan

Jyoti Ranjan Pradhan

Will join MA in Security and Diplomacy studies at Tel Aviv University (2017-18) on October 16, 2018.
Have studied International Relations for two semesters at South Asian University, New Delhi.
B. Tech in Mechanical Engineering.