UN

Climate change isn’t something people get to choose to believe or not: it’s happening. Since pre-industrial times, human-caused climate change has resulted in an increase in greenhouse gas emissions that has led to an average temperature rise of over 1 degree Celsius on Earth. The next four decades have each been successively warmer than the decade before it since 1850. We are observing a warming atmosphere and changing climatic conditions worldwide as a result of climate change, which has serious consequences for our physical environment.

In 2021, the intergovernmental panel on climate change report sounded a red alert for humanity. It stressed how human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years. This left no room for doubt. The record concentration levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are unequivocally due to human activities rooted in the burning of fossil fuels. The goal of 2015 Paris agreement aims to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels; preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius. But at the current trajectory, the world is on, we are at risk of falling significantly short of these targets. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 2020, the global mean surface temperature was 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times. 2020 was also one of the three warmest years on record.

The impact humans have had on the climate has, and continues to, alter nature. We are inching closer and closer to ecological tipping points, many of which are irreversible. Changes in extreme weather are affecting every region of the world, making heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts more frequent and severe. This rise in global temperature aggravates the rate at which sea levels are rising, corals are bleaching, the ocean acidifying, biodiversity is being lost and heat waves, tropical cyclones, and fire-related events are taking place. Delicate ecosystems like small low-lying island states, semi-arid and arid areas, and arctic and tundra environments face a greater threat of climate change. However, the environment does not exist in a vacuum and neither does human society.

Everything is interconnected. Every single way in which climate change impacts our environment has a ripple effect that will manifest in the short, medium, or long term. As a threat multiplier, climate change puts us at risk of reversing the gains in growth and sustainable development made in the last few decades. This indicates that the effects of climate change are manifest throughout our social, economic, cultural, and political fabric in addition to affecting our weather patterns and physical surroundings. The way people feel the impacts of climate change and respond to it is determined by multidimensional and intersecting inequalities. If you think that the environment is less important than the economy, try holding your breath while you count your money. (Guy McPherson)

The climate crisis disproportionately affects women and girls as they tend to rely more heavily on natural resources, public services, and infrastructure. They are restricted to and very seldom controlled. They are also less represented in decision-making in general, so climate responses are no different. These processes are influenced by the very same socio-economic and cultural norms that discriminate against women and girls in other areas. When it comes to specific climate change impacts, women and girls are particularly affected in at least five areas: food security, water availability, health, gender-based violence, and climate-induced displacement and migration. Women play a critical role in global food security. Many smallholder farmers are women whose livelihoods and food sources are at risk from climate change. In addition, male-dominated structures often govern land ownership, making it hard for women to access the fertile plots that they require to produce food for their survival and that of their families.

Also, climate change is intensifying water scarcity, which adds to women’s time burden as it is often their responsibility to collect fresh water. In addition, high temperatures and salinization of sources of drinking water have a detrimental impact on maternal and child health. Linked to this, the increased incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and typhoid increases the risk of pregnant women contracting these diseases. This, combined with unequal care burdens, can disproportionately pressure women and girls to support their families. These demands on women are further intensified during disasters when the risk of sexual and gender-based violence is greatest. Child and forced marriages, as well as increased human trafficking, can occur as a harmful coping mechanism among those who suffer the most from climate change-related economic stress. These challenging economic conditions forced families out of their communities and most of the time, those displaced are women. As we can see, it is those who are least responsible that often bear the brunt of the most adverse effects of climate change. This can further deepen existing inequalities and affect the ability of women and society at large to manage and recover from the impacts of climate change. As former US President Barack Obama once said that “We are the first generation to feel the effect of climate change and the last generation who can do something about it”.

The fighting in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces has received regional and international attention since its outbreak on the fifteenth of April, especially as it threatens the security and stability of a fragile region.

The main players on the regional and international arenas did not hesitate to intervene in the conflict, whether directly or indirectly.

Egypt

Egypt has a long-term interest in Sudan’s stability, given the two countries’ common border and the strategic importance of the Nile River.

Egypt actively participated in the mediation between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, addressing the two parties to contain the crisis and reach a cease-fire agreement. Egypt’s primary motive is to prevent a large-scale civil war in Sudan, which could lead to an influx of refugees and negatively affect water security in Egypt.

And if the clashes in Sudan prolong and widen, this will also affect the trade partnership between the two countries, especially since an estimated part of Sudan’s agricultural and animal exports reach the Egyptian market, including what is re-exported to other countries in light of the sanctions imposed on Sudan.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia has concerns about the expansion of the Sudanese conflict, its extension, and the repercussions of that on stability in the region.

And as a neighbor of Sudan and a major player in the Nile River Basin, it has an interest in ensuring that the conflict does not escalate. In addition, the ongoing tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed Al-Fashqa region and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) make Ethiopia a stakeholder in Sudan’s stability.

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played an important role in Sudanese affairs, particularly in their support of the Rapid Support Forces. Both countries provided financial and military assistance to these forces, especially since they were the pillars of the Saudi-led coalition in the Yemen war, where Sudanese soldiers, most of whom were from the Rapid Support Forces, participated on the side of the coalition in the fight against the Ansar Allah Houthi movement, which strengthened the capabilities of the Rapid Support financially and militarily.

In addition to this, the UAE is interested in gold, in which the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hamedti), has large investments in it since the ousted President Omar al-Bashir granted him the rights to excavate it in Jabal Amer so that he could pay the salaries of his soldiers.

It is also possible that Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s support for the RSF was motivated by the two countries’ quest to counter Iranian influence in the region while maintaining a strong military presence in the Horn of Africa.

International players

United State

The United States expressed its concern about the situation in Sudan, and called on its Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who made phone calls with the army commander, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and with the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, during which he called for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the two parties.

Earlier, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said that the United States is in close contact with Sudanese military leaders and is pressing them to extend the ceasefire, and to explore options for restoring Sudan’s diplomatic and consular presence as soon as possible.

It was reported that the United States is currently studying the idea of imposing sanctions on members of the army and the Rapid Support Forces, although observers of the American affairs say that these sanctions will be useless if imposed by Washington and that it is too late to take such a step.

These observers and Sudanese and international human rights activists say that the United States does not want to impose any sanctions in Africa, and they add that if it wanted to do so, it would have imposed sanctions on the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces following the dispersal of the sit-in in front of the army command in Khartoum on June 3, 2019. In the same context, they point out that Washington did not impose sanctions on the Ethiopian leadership in the war against the Tigray region, which lasted two years and resulted in the deaths of more than 600,000 people, in addition to the US preoccupation with the war in Ukraine.

The United States’ interest in Sudan’s stability is likely driven by its broader strategic goals in the region, including combating terrorism, promoting democracy, and curbing the influence of China and Russia on the continent.

Russia

Russia’s interference in Sudanese affairs is more limited, as it formally focuses mainly on providing military assistance and training to the Sudanese army.

This support is consistent with Russia’s broader strategy to increase its influence in Africa and secure access to natural resources. It is noteworthy that the Rapid Support Commander visited Moscow in the last week of February 2022 in an eight-day visit that sparked widespread controversy, as there was talk at the time about the possibility of granting Moscow A military base in Port Sudan.

Therefore, Russia’s role in Sudan has been criticized by some Western countries, which argue that it will exacerbate tensions between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, especially since a close relationship linked the Russian Wagner Group and Rapid Support in the field of armament, training, guarding, and the gold sector.

Although the group and the RSF commander were quick to deny any role they had in the current fighting, the US CNN said, quoting Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources, that the Wagner Group is providing the RSF with missiles to help in its fight against the army.

The sources said that the surface-to-air missiles greatly enhanced the combat capabilities of the Rapid Support Forces.

CNN added that satellite images detected an unusual movement in Wagner bases in Libya, neighboring Sudan, reinforcing these allegations, as Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, who is supported by Wagner, controls swathes of Libyan territory.

It is noteworthy that the European Union imposed sanctions on Wagner’s branch in Sudan, after investigations revealed the group’s role in gold exploitation.

The Wagner Group played a central role in Moscow’s foreign military campaigns, specifically in Ukraine, and was repeatedly accused of atrocities. In Africa, Wagner contributed to the growing influence of Moscow and the seizure of resources.

China

China has adopted a more cautious approach to the conflict in Sudan, seeking to maintain a balance between its economic interests and a commitment to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.

While China continued to invest in Sudan’s oil and construction sectors, it also called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and offered to mediate between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces. China’s interest in Sudan’s stability stems primarily from its desire to secure access to natural resources and expand its economic influence in the region.

Needless to say, the conflict between the Sudanese army and the RSF has attracted significant participation from regional and international players, each with their own motivations and interests.

While some actors, such as Egypt and Ethiopia, focus primarily on maintaining regional stability, others, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia, have more strategic goals in Sudan. The continued participation of these players in the conflict in Sudan underscores the complex and multidimensional nature of the crisis and highlights at the same time the challenges of finding an immediate solution to it and achieving a lasting peace that prevents the country from slipping into a civil war that is widening and protracted.

Sources:

https://www.bbc.com/arabic/middleeast-65360440  

 

https://www.alarabiya.net/arab-and-world/american-elections-2016/2023/04/24/

 

 

In a report published by Global Financial Integrity, the revenue generated by transnational crimes is estimated to be worth between $1.6 trillion and $2.2 trillion annually. Out of this value, it is appraised that the global illegal drug trade value is worth $426 billion to $652 billion (May, 2017). The value of the global illicit drug trade represents about one-third of the total value of transnational crimes (May, 2017). Globalization and the integration of the world economy can be seen as a significant catalyst to the growth of the illegal drug trade.

The United States of America Department of State and the United Nations labelled Guinea-Bissau as “Africa’s first narco-state” (BBC News, 2020) Furthermore, the report made by Global Financial Integrity suggests that Africa’s growing role as a transit point for drug trafficking has been a significant contributor to the growth of both drug smuggling and consumption over the last decade (May, 2017).

This essay seeks to identify Guinea-Bissau’s role in the global smuggling of drugs and suggest ways of resolving the issue. Consequently, this essay will argue that Guinea-Bissau has emerged to play a crucial role in drug trafficking due to its strategic location, historical linguistic relations, weak institutions and participating elite. However, these issues may possibly be combated through the re-establishment of a stable government that will enforce the rule of law, regeneration of the economy, investing in the security apparatus of the country, targeted campaigns to inform the population on the adverse effects of drugs and delegitimization the public support for controversial narcotic organizations.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes (UNODC) has defined drug trafficking as “a global illicit trade involving the cultivation, manufacture, distribution and sale of substances, which are subject to drug prohibition laws” (Drug trafficking, 2021). Globalization has “facilitated not only the movement of people, but also the flow of goods, capital, and services” (Petcu, C., 2017, p.2). Globalization also “had the negative effect of facilitating the expansion of transnational crime such as global terrorism, people and drug trafficking, immigrant smuggling and money laundering” (Petcu, C., 2017, p.2). The rapid development and growth of drug trafficking and other transnational crimes have had the consequences of increasing instability, corruption, and high levels of violence in producing and transit countries. (Petcu, C., 2017, p.3)

Since the 1990s, West Africa has been a significant trafficking hub for drugs originating from Latin America and Asia to European Consumers (Aning, K. and Pokoo, J., 2014). However, the “first significant contact between West African criminal organizations and Latin American countries emerged between 2000 and 2003” (Rousseau, R., 2017, p19). In addition, strong anti-laundering and anti-drug measures taken by other regions of the world can be seen as factors that have increased the importance of the West African region as a hub for drug trafficking (Shehu, A., 2009, p1).

Furthermore, the geographical location and well-established networks of smugglers and criminal syndicates have increased the region’s viability as a logistical and transit hub for drugs traffickers. (Aning, K. and Pokoo, J., 2014). Ashley Neese Bybee, in her dissertation, has also highlighted that the shift in demand for illegal drugs from the United States to Europe has forced traffickers to explore new routes to transport the drugs from Latin America to Europe. She also explains that “the realities that exist in Africa, such as its porous borders, lack of legitimate opportunities for economic advancement, abundant supply of unemployed, impoverished, and willing couriers and their existing diasporas networks in Europe, all facilitate the drug trade through West Africa.” (Bybee, A.N., 2011, p. 28-30)

UNODC has estimated that between 40 to 50 tons of cocaine destined to Europe pass through Africa each year. (UNODC, N., 2008. P1) the region has moved from not only being a transit route for these illegal drugs but also a final destination. UNODC has reported a marked increase in drugs consumption in Africa by 40%. (UNODC World Drug Report 2021)

With the increasing role that the West African region plays in the drug trafficking business, Guinea-Bissau has played a very prominent role in drug trafficking and has often been dubbed “Africa’s First Narco-State” by journalists. Guinea-Bissau has become a particularly strategic hub for drug traffickers due to the many islands dotting the Atlantic Ocean off the country’s coast. (DW, 2012). Ashley Neese Bybee also elaborates that “Guinea-Bissau has 350 km of unpatrolled coastline, and the Bijagós Archipelago has 88 unpoliced islands” (Bybee, A.N., 2011, p. 31). Many of these Islands have defunct airstrips left over by its former colonial power, Portugal, thereby allowing traffickers to use these airstrips to fly in their drugs without detection.

Andreas Zeidler attributes the cultural and linguistic ties between Guinea-Bissau and other producing and destination countries as another reason why Guinea-Bissau has become an important transit hub for drug trafficking. (Zeidler, A., 2011, p. 61) The historical ties between Guinea-Bissau with Portugal and other drugs producing counties have made Guinea-Bissau a viable hub for drug smuggling.

The weak institutions of the country have also contributed to Guinea-Bissau becoming a “Narco-State”. Bybee illustrates this by giving an example of the police in the country who “are numerous yet under-resourced. The gendarmerie (military force with the responsibility to enforce the law with civilians) and police combined to give a ratio of 284 law enforcement officers per 100,000 citizens – one of the highest in West Africa and only slightly below the European average” (Bybee, A.N., 2011, p. 33). A large number of public officers, takes away a large portion of the budget leaving little for other aspects of operations. This can be seen with Judicial Police who “for example, have 60 agents, one vehicle and often no fuel. As a result, when culprits are apprehended, they are driven in a taxi to the police station – In the military, one rusty ship patrols the 350-kilometre coastline and 88 islands”; (Bybee, A.N., 2011, p. 31). This clearly illustrates how it has become almost impossible to enforce laws and provides an opportunity for drug smugglers to carry out their actions without any hindrance.

It is not only the police force that lacks the resources to carry out its operations. Insufficient resources and the lack of qualified personal have left the judiciary inefficient, ineffective and incapable of carrying out fair prosecution and sentencing of suspected criminals. (Zeidler, A., 2011, p. 65)

Bybee also views the activities of drug smugglers in fragile states such as Guinea-Bissau as one of the drivers of instability in the region. The instability of the area has, in turn, has become a hindrance to the strategic interest of the United States in Africa. (Bybee, A.N., 2011, p. 37). Thus, the concern of the United States in achieving their strategic interest in Africa, particularly in the areas of terrorism, explains the role of the United States in finding a solution to the problem of drug trafficking in the region.

Another impact of the drug trafficking business in Guinea-Bissau is the erosion of the rule of law in the country. Bybee argues that drug traffickers rely on the presence of corruption to carry out their activities (Bybee, A.N., 2011, p. 37). While the lack of the rule of law and good governance is why drug traffickers have picked countries like Guinea-Bissau to carry out their business, drug trafficking operation further impedes any development to improve the situation in the country. Often drug trafficking worsens the situation. The involvement of the political and security elite of Guinea-Bissau in the drug trafficking business has been widely reported. The ruling class have often leveraged the unstable political climate to increase their wealth by supporting the illicit drug trade, which (as previously stated) is highly lucrative.

Mette Kaalby Vestergaard reports that “It is common that the bigger seizures of drugs involve arresting government officials, who are later convicted for having played central roles in the organizing of the smuggling activities” (Kaal Vestergaard, 2021). Furthermore, the lack of adequate infrastructure Is further demonstrated in the fact that a country facing a big problem of drug trafficking only has two poorly equipped prisons in the whole country. Due to political instability, their upgrading has been put on hold. (BBC NEWS, 2021). It has also been reported that within the two prisons in the country, the guards have not been adequately equipped with sufficient tools to fully govern the prison and control the activities of their occupants (BBC NEWS, 2021). This has potentially disastrous consequences as convicted prisoners may continue to exercise considerable influence on society despite their incarceration.

The lack of resources for the security officials and Judiciary to carry out their tasks in eradicating the problem of drug trafficking, coupled with the absence of the rule of law and involvement of the political and security in the drug smuggling business, has made it difficult to combat the issue of drug trafficking in the country. Colonel Stephen K. Van Riper also sees the high profitability of drug smuggling and the low cost of conducting the business. The “it is not my problem” as other barriers which have made it challenging to tackle the issue of drug smuggling in Guinea-Bissau. (Van Riper, SK, 2014. P. 16-17)

However, great strides have been made to convict drug smugglers in the country. In September of 2019, the most significant drug bust in the country was carried out. An estimated 1.9 tons of cocaine were seized; the seizure also led to the arrest and conviction of 12 men of Bissau-Guinean, Colombian, Mexican and Portuguese nationalities. While the drug bust is seen as a significant achievement in the country’s fight against drug trafficking, there is concern that drug trafficking may increase with the controversial Umaro Cissoko Embaló becoming the country’s president. (BBC NEWS, 2021).

Van Riper insists that any significant effort that involves challenging the issue of drug smuggling in Guinea-Bissau must include the re-establishment of a stable government that will revive a robust culture of obedience to the rule of law in the state (Van Riper, 2014). This reformed government must also ensure to distance the military from all political affairs and introduce adequate checks and balances to assist the fight against corruption. While establishing a stable government is a significant step in eradicating the problem of drug smuggling in Guinea-Bissau, it is not sufficient. The new government must also revitalize the economy to provide the population with alternative ways to earn a living other than trafficking drugs. The government must collaborate with International Organizations such as the United Nations and regional organizations such as the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) in finding solutions to enhance the economy.

The newly re-established government must also find solutions to the chronic problem of the lack of security infrastructure. This can be done through investing in equipments for the security officials especially the border controls and custom officers. Training judicial officials and investing in new prisons and rehabilitation centres will also improve the situation of the Guinea-Bissau. While all these investments maybe capital intensive, the government may consider using confiscated drug money to rehabilitate the security infrastructure of the country. Considering that drug trafficking is a global problem that is affecting the whole world, Guinea-Bissau should also consider collaborating with other countries in tackling the problem and to learn from best practices of countries who have tackled the problem of drug smuggling.

Introduction of stricter punishment and penalty for people who have been involved in the business would deter individuals from participating in drug trafficking. To combat the drug trafficking problem, adequate sensitization campaigns will need to be launched and promoted to the broader public. Analysis of historical drug trafficking case studies has provided empirical evidence that the host transit countries will always suffer the adverse effects of drug trafficking (Van Riper, 2014).  This signifies that the transit countries will eventually experience issues such as a drastic increase in the local consumption of drugs and general societal effects on population stability and security. A vital example of this is Brazil, which as a major drug transit country, has become the second-largest consumer of cocaine in the world and payment for products is often done via drugs (Van Riper, 2014).

The sensitization campaigns will need to present evidence to convince people of the adverse effects of drugs in society. People will need to be sufficiently informed and educated on the impact of Guinea-Bissau being a transit country and future issues that could potentially arise from it. Concise, targeted efforts will need to be made to conceptualize drugs as taboo and ensure it viewed as a non-tradable commodity amongst people. Guinea-Bissau could leverage international bodies such as the ECOWAS – which is prevalent within West Africa – for support in terms of human capital and resources to ensure that drug trade is reduced within the region, to begin with.

Nonetheless, as previously noted, drugs are indisputably a local problem, which needs to be resolved. This is especially true as it has been estimated that approximately 8% of global cocaine users are West African, with Guinea-Bissau’s user growing exponentially (Brown, 2013, p37). Moreover, the sub-optimal state of public health infrastructure in Guinea-Bissau and other countries in the region signifies a growing need to resolve these issues as they are likely to have catastrophic effects on broader society.

Over ten years ago, Guinea-Bissau, a small state in the Western region of Africa, became the first narco-state in the continent. Multiple factors such as its geographical location, the lack of a stable government, lack of rule of law, and the military’s interference in the country’s politics have contributed to the increasingly prominent role the country is playing in drug trafficking. The new role of Guinea-Bissau as a hub for drug smuggling has worsened the situation of an already fragile state with the erosion of the rule of law and increasing the rate of corruption in the country.

While giant strides have been made in the fight against corruption, significantly more needs to be done. A reformed government that will enforce the rule of law in the country and revitalize the economy is required to win the battle against drug trafficking.  Other strategies such as upgrading the security infrastructure of the country, collaborating with the international community to tackle the problem of drug smuggling, introducing stricter punishment for individuals caught in the business, as well as sensitization of the general population about the ills of drug trafficking will also prove fruitful in fighting drug trafficking out of the country.

 

 

 

Bibliography

BBC News. 2021. Cocaine and Guinea-Bissau: How Africa’s ‘narco-state’ is trying to kick its habit. [online] Available at: <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52569130> [Accessed 9 November 2021].
May, C., 2017. Transnational Crime and the Developing World. [online] Global Financial Integrity, p.xi. Available at: <https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.97/34n.8bd.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Transnational_Crime-final.pdf> [Accessed 9 November 2021].
Petcu, C., 2017. Globalization and Drug Trafficking. The New School University.
United Nations: Office on Drugs and Crime. 2021. Drug trafficking. [online] Available at: <https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/drug-trafficking/> [Accessed 10 November 2021].
Aning, K. and Pokoo, J., 2014. Understanding the nature and threats of drug trafficking to national and regional security in West Africa. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, 3(1).
Shehu, A., 2009, July. Drug Trafficking and its impact on West Africa. In Meeting of the Joint Committee on Political Affairs, Peace and Security/NEPAD and Africa Peer Review Mechanism of the ECOWAS Parliament, Katsina, Nigeria, on July (Vol. 28).
Rousseau, R., 2017. West Africa–the Region’s Pivotal Role in International Drug Trafficking.
UNODC, N., 2008. Drug trafficking as a security threat in West Africa. Vienna: UNODC.
Bybee, A.N., 2011. Narco state or failed state? narcotics and politics in Guinea-Bissau. George Mason University.
DW.COM. 2021. West Africa is hub for international drug trafficking | DW | 01.03.2012. [online] Available at: <https://www.dw.com/en/west-africa-is-hub-for-international-drug-trafficking/a-15776001> [Accessed 11 November 2021].
Kaal Vestergaard, M., 2021. Europe’s back door left wide open: The role of Guinea-Bissau in drug trafficking – Human Security Centre. [online] Human Security Centre. Available at: <http://www.hscentre.org/africa/europes-back-door-left-wide-open-the-role-of-guinea-bissau-in-drug-trafficking/> [Accessed 13 November 2021].
Zeidler, A., 2011. The state as a facilitator in the illicit global political economy: Guinea-Bissau and the global cocaine trade (Doctoral dissertation, Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch).
Van Riper, S.K., 2014. Tackling Africa’s First Narco-State: Guinea-Bissau in West Africa. Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, US Army War College.
Brown,. 2014. The Challenge of Drug Trafficking to Democratic Governance and Human Security in West Africa.

 

 

By Bello Jibir Kabir

 

 

 

 

On August 13, 2020, Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to normalize diplomatic relations. The general agreement was as follows: The United Arab Emirates will formally recognize Israel, in exchange for Israel suspending all plans to annex the West Bank indefinitely. While a formal treaty has yet to be signed, already media restrictions on Israeli television have been lifted in the United Arab Emirates, and discussions for regular flights between David Ben Gurion International Airport and Dubai International Airport.

So, what will the impact be?

Well, nothing immediate. The United Arab Emirates and Israel have never gone to war. In fact, they have for some time been engaging in secret negotiations and alliances, something that was known to everyone who had been following this stuff even casually. This is not unique to the United Arab Emirates. Many Gulf countries have had open-secret relations with Israel for decades, long before the rise of Iran, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman. Good relations with Israel were viewed by the Arab monarchies as a counterbalance to the Pan- Arab governments of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and others. The governments of Israel an Jordan were engaging in secret dialogue, even as their armies were fighting each other across the battlefield.

However, this may prove to start a cascade impact across the Gulf. Oman has endorsed the Trump peace plan, and has embraced the decision by the United Arab Emirates to recognize the state of Israel, even as Oman herself has never formally recognized the Jewish state. Bahrain and Sudan have also expressed support, and may follow suit.

However, in this gossip and rumor about who will be next in line to gain access to Israeli markets in the Arab World, one country is missing: Saudi Arabia.

There have been secret bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel in recent years. And Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel with be game, set, match for the Jewish state. And Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are both allies in the civil war in Yemen, of which no outside nation has been more invested in than both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

And yet, there is a huge rift between the two countries. Mainly, the United Arab Emirates supports the southern separatist movements, who want to see South Yemen an independent nation again, while Saudi Arabia does not.

Although there is a peace deal between the internationally-recognized government and the Southern separatists, there is no way of knowing whether it will hold. It is quite possible that Saudi-UAE alliance will break down, and the UAE may drop out of the war. Add to this the recognition of Israel by the United Arab Emirates, and you could have a recipe for a fall out. After all, Saudi Arabia would not want to do anything that upsets its status as the protectors of Islam.

But that is not all. The United Arab Emirates is diversifying, looking into a post-oil future. Seeing the attention oil has brought in, and seeing its status as a major airline hub, the UAE is growing its service sector. The UAE is a rising star in the Gulf.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is declining. It is suffering from a lack of young people willing to work in difficult services, a consequence of the Expat economy that has defined the Gulf. It’s international reputation has been severely tarnished. All of its economic reform plans have failed.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates may in the end work to check Saudi Islamist movements as the United Arab Emirates, although an ally of Saudi Arabia in Yemen and have a joint interest in deterring Iran, does not want to fund Islamist movements, unlike it’s neighbors, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran. In the end, more and more Gulf nations recognizing Israel May serve as a containment strategy against Saudi Arabia.

But, nowhere is more affected than the Palestinians, who have already rejected the peace agreement. However, they will soon realize that even they have little choice but to change their strategy. As more and more Arab nations open up to Israel, the Palestinians will learn the hard way that they, like the Kurds, have no friends but the mountains.

The Arab league can and use its position to pressure the Palestinians into making concessions. This ultimately must be done in conjunction with the United States putting pressure on the Israelis to end construction of West Bank settlements. Especially considering that West Bank annexation was incredibly unpopular with the Israelis, and the normalization of diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, on the other hand, is incredibly popular.

The agreement can also provide further co-operation between the Israelis and the Palestinians. After all, the agreement was based on the promise that Israel would suspend West Bank annexation. However, Netanyahu has stated that he has no plans to cancel his ambitions of West Bank annexation. Yet, should he decide to go ahead with West Bank annexation, something he planned to do in July, the United Arab Emirates will go ahead with the plan.

This is, in many ways, a continuation of the “land for peace” proposal that began when Israel gave back the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in exchange for Egyptian recognition of the Jewish state. Followed up by Jordanian recognition of Israel in exchange for the established of the Palestinian authority. Or Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005.

If these things can make Arab states recognize Israel, would a settlement freeze make more states recognize Israel? Would Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Sudan, Tunisia, Morocco, and Lebanon recognize Israel if Israel agreed to a settlement freeze?

This can ultimately mean the final peace accord between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and with that, the last of the Arab states will have no choice but to recognize Israel.

Since the UN came into existence in 1945, the organization has proved to be an extremely effective tool to prevent peace and the raise of new conflicts around the world. Among the UN most significant achievements it is worth remembering its involvement in the Korean War (1950-1953) and the Persian Gulf War (1991), where it authorized the international coalitions that fought in both. Additionally, the UN served as a hub for mediation during the Arab-Israeli conflict, whose intervention lead to numerous peace accords and kept the tension localized in the Middle East. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the UN was used as a platform by the United States to challenge the Soviet Union’s placements of nuclear missiles in Cuba. Overall, the UN military forces provided by member states have carried out more than 35 peacekeeping missions which enhanced the level of security and mitigate conflicts. For this exceptional commitment, the UN Peace-Keeping Forces received the Nobel Prize for Peace in 1988. But the UN also demonstrated to be an essential pillar to foster a deeper understanding of human rights and promoting improvements linked to the health of people, such as in the case of the creation of the UNICEF, the aid provided to refugees and the support given to end the apartheid in South Africa.

Without this kind of mediation from the UN, these tensions would have otherwise resulted in endangering the population in an escalating threat for the entire world. Despite these successes, the UN has also been subjected to some criticism, for instance after the Somali civil war, the Rwandan genocide and the Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar. Taking this into account, the UN recognizes that, in order to better acting in accordance with the founding principles, it is essential to find more ways to expand its action worldwide. For this reason, the organization has officially launched a new initiative called ‘UN 75’, the biggest ever global conversation on the role of international cooperation in building the future everyone is hoping to have.
Announced by UN Secretary General António Guterres, the project aims to gather the voices of various people from different backgrounds who will share their ideas and visions for shaping a more inclusive and safe world by 2045. Created to mark the UN seventy-fifth anniversary that will occur in 2020, ‘UN 75’ represents an outstanding chance to connect the worldwide population inside a network that allows the participants to imagine future scenarios based on their past experiences and current perspectives. In this way, the whole society is considered, and even groups that are often unheard in global affairs such as people with disabilities or refugees can exchange opinions that are useful to source solutions for collective actions.

Joining the dialogue is quite simple and can be done online with campaigns or surveys, offline, in formal or informal ways and in many settings, from parliaments to classrooms, from halls to villages. What the ‘UN 75’ hopes to achieve is to find an answer to matters that are crucial to improve international relations, such as what should be the role of governments, businesses, civil society and individuals. A special emphasis will be placed on the thoughts of youth and marginalized groups to listen to their proposals and concerns. Consequently, the role of ‘UN 75’ will be twofold: being able to inspire a broader civic engagement throughout the various communities of the world and to build a more robust and reliable organization at the same time. In fact, especially in recent years there have been many calls to push the United Nations to reform itself, from the Security Council’s membership to bureaucracy. Moreover, in many countries public trust in institutions is declining rapidly and relations between nations are under strain. In addition to this, global challenges continue to be daunting. Examples include fighting climate change, reducing poverty and discrimination, attain an higher level of democratization and making access to education wider. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that dialogue is urgent. In this sense, the ‘UN 75’ initiative will function as a global reality check to spark conversations around. In fact, only through encouraging public debate the UN can become more aware of the hopes and fears of people, as well as monitoring possible threats that could compromise a secure and peaceful world.

The results generated by ‘UN 75’ will form a group of data captured by innovative streams. The outcome may inspire new programs, investments, partnerships and campaigns.
Despite recent difficulties, the UN is proving another time to be a key actor to in the international scene, since the main idea behind the project is that no country or community could be able to solve the complex problems of the globe alone. Rather, the world keeps needing an institution such as the UN, which is continuing to engage tirelessly to reach goals such as fostering cooperation between nations and guarantee to every individual a more stable and secure world.

The United Nations have a long-standing tradition of observances linked to particular days, weeks, years or even decades. These occasions are usually proposed by Member States, and then set by the General Assembly through a resolution. Some example include the Disarmament Week, World Earth Day, International Mother Earth Day, International Day of Democracy and Human Rights Day, each of which perfectly represent the UN goals to transform our current world. Established also with the aim of spreading greater awareness about the UN objectives, the above mentioned  celebrations always resulted in a huge success, and they keep going in order to remember to the people the outstanding accomplishments that the UN has been able to achieve over the years.

In this sense, the next 24 October will celebrate the UN Day, that marks the anniversary of the UN Charter’s entry into force. This founding document was initially signed in San Francisco on 26 June 1945, to then start its effects in October of the same year, which officially gave birth to the United Nations as are known today. Even tough there were some divergencies and serious clashes of opinions, the outcome of the conference was eventually positive, and lead to a completely new era for the international relations. In fact, from that moment onwards, this new organization would have had to face extremely demanding challenges, especially in the new context of the post-World War two, which prospected itself to be highly arduous for both Europe and overseas countries. Essentially, the aftermath of the conflict was significant in a twofold way: on one side, there were entire cities destroyed, millions of civilian killed due to bombing raids and the big collapse of the economy. On the other side, it was the beginning of a new era, defined by the decline of all European colonial empires and the rise of two rival superpowers, respectively the Soviet Union and the United State. In addition, the menace of new nuclear weapons, which for instance were tested during the Nagasaki and Hiroshima attacks against Japan, contributed significantly to increase concerns around what would have been the proper measures to adopt in this hostile picture.

Consequently, the primary purpose after the war was to restore faith among the people and provide a safer world for everyone. Ensuring peace became a pillar of the UN goals, and even today the organization is managing to attain this and other tasks in order to create a community in which fundamental freedom and human rights are respected. Despite obstacles in some critical areas of the world, the UN continues to show its unwavering commitment to the principle stated in the Charter on a daily basis, and has been able to resolve issues that have positively shaped crucial fields for a more stable existence, such as counter terrorism, sustainable development and disaster relief.

For all these reasons, the celebration of the UN Day is something to which everyone can relate, regardless of culture, background, social status and religion. Each year, a global network of the UN organizes events such as ceremonies, panel discussions, briefings for students, film screenings, photo exhibitions and campaigns, both on the press and in social media. This year, the UN Day is part of a longer week that will take place between the 20 and the 26 of October. Since another key point of the UN mission is inclusion, cultural diversity is immensely taken into account. Hence, the event will be held across the globe, and will also include food festivals and concerts. More specifically, for this year is planned a special exhibition at the UN headquarter in New York, which will feature the Qatar Philharmonic Orchestra. This will be an exceptional occasion in which different people can gather together, proving that in our increasingly globalized world, being tolerant, respectful and open-minded can be a force behind greater development. Moreover, with threats and countries that still face a high degree of instability, it is of paramount importance to remember to celebrate the United Nations, which is looking continuously to innovative solutions to improve the general well-being of all humans, avoid conflicts and provide a safer world for this and for all the future generations.