Young Diplomats

Attitude Estimation | The estimate deals with the upcoming general elections in Turkey, scheduled for mid-May, amid internal challenges that have resulted in a complex electoral map and increased polarization between the political forces. The estimate indicates several scenarios regarding the possible results of the upcoming electoral process.

Next May 14, the Turks will go to the polls to cast their votes in the presidential and parliamentary elections, and these elections will be held at a time when Turkey faces a set of important and urgent issues, especially the worsening economic situation and the repercussions of the devastating February earthquakes. Turkey will also decide the nature of its rule and what will become of its economic policies, in addition to determining the nature of the role that Turkey will play on the regional and international arenas, as these elections may lead to the continuation of the era of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who has been leading Turkey for two decades – if he wins. In it, but in the event that the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his alliance win, this will be a herald of the start of a different new era in Turkey, especially with the opposition’s pledge to undo many of Erdogan’s policies, return to the parliamentary system, implement stricter monetary policies, and restore the independence of the central bank, which raises questions. Concerning indicators of the strength and weakness of each party in this electoral race, and what are the expected scenarios that these elections may lead to?

Global dimensions

The impact of the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections of 2023 will not be limited to the level of internal files related to the usual political competition between parties, but rather will have an impact on a global level, as the Washington Post considered it the most important event in the year 2023; Because of the radical changes that will result in many of the region’s files. Turkey’s regional role did not suddenly take shape, as the active diplomacy adopted by the Justice and Development Party over the past two decades had a role in linking it to the security and stability of the region, in addition to its growing effectiveness in files outside its regional scope, such as its activity in Africa, and other files related to developments in the region such as the energy crisis and the cereal crisis. This regional role makes the presidential elections – in particular – a global event with its consequences. These results are fundamentally linked to the challenges that constitute the Turkish scene, which will have a degree of influence on the expected results, and the most prominent of these challenges are:

With the presidential and legislative elections approaching in Turkey, competition has escalated between parties and alliances, amid internal and external challenges. It is being held at a time when the country is facing the repercussions of the devastating earthquake that hit it last February, which is expected to exacerbate the economic crisis with inflation rates rising to high levels, in addition to security threats and fears of repeating terrorist attacks, the last of which was on November 13, 2022, after an explosion. A bomb in the Taksim area killed 6 people and injured more than 80. The elections also coincide with a remarkable development in Turkish foreign policy, revealed by Ankara’s tendency towards openness in its relations with regional countries.

Internally, recently, the Turkish government has sought to take several domestic policies to mitigate the tangible consequences of the unprecedented rise in inflation. It has worked to raise the minimum wage, and after the devastation caused by the earthquake, the government announced a major campaign for reconstruction in the affected areas.

The country witnessed a record wave of inflation about two years ago, and the leader of the Future Party, Hoca Oglu, considered that “Turkish public opinion feels the economic decline, the middle class has greatly diminished and the segment of the poor has increased,” adding that “the economy will greatly affect the Turkish voter.”

Writer Tahir Oglu expected the opposition to focus on the point where many of the promises and goals of 2023 have not been fulfilled, such as per capita income, reducing unemployment, inflation, and so on, although crises such as Corona and the Ukraine war contributed in some way to exacerbating the already existing economic crisis.

externally; Turkey continues its intensive moves in the region to strengthen its role as a mediator in the Ukrainian crisis, as well as to participate in the formulation of political and security arrangements related to many crises in the region, especially in Syria, Libya, and the eastern Mediterranean, which represent strategic cards for Turkish policy, and this was evident in its tendency to expand the scope of Its presence in Libya and northern Iraq, and the strengthening of its rapprochement with Damascus, as well as its role in preserving the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agreements.

For its part, the opposition mobilizes its efforts and expands the areas of coordination between them. In February 2022, it established the Six-Party Alliance (Table of six), or what is known as the “Six Table”, which seeks to secure a strong position for itself in the Turkish political arena. It is an extension of the opposition “Ummah” coalition, and includes parties (The Republican People, the Good Party, and the conservative Felicity Party, in addition to the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), the Future Party, and finally the Democratic Party). The Table Alliance raises the importance of returning to the parliamentary system, as well as stopping the interference of the executive authority in drawing up the country’s monetary policies, along with an emphasis on openness to Turkey’s neighboring countries, and the need to end Turkish military involvement in the region’s conflicts.

Complex Electoral Map

The upcoming Turkish elections, both the presidential and parliamentary, open to a map of new and complex political alliances, unlike the scene in the previous elections, as the arena witnesses a number of competing or interlocking electoral alliances, distributed between large and effective alliances, and small and ineffective ones, which can be divided as follows:

First: the large active alliances

A- “al-Jumhour” Public Alliance

It includes the parties: Justice and Development (the ruler), and its partner, the National Movement Party, in addition to the Great Unity Party (right), as well as the Free Dawa Party, or what is known in Turkish as “Huda Bar”, which is a Kurdish party with Islamic and nationalist leanings.

The popular base of this alliance is based on the national and Islamic dimensions, and these parties have agreed regarding the presidential elections to push the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to run for the presidential elections. Erbakan, son of former president Necmettin Erbakan, is running for president.

It is also expected that this coalition will repeat the scenario of the 2018 elections, and it will also run the legislative elections race in coordination and absolute consensus.

  B- The Ummah (Nation) Alliance

It includes parties: the Republican People, which represents an extension of the legacy of the founder of the Turkish Republic, Kemal Ataturk, the Good or Good Party, which was founded in 2017, and the Felicity Party, which represents an extension of the ideas of Necmettin Erbakan, in addition to the “center-right” Democratic Party.

It is likely that the parties of the “Nation Alliance”, which was established on the eve of the 2018 elections, will participate in the parliamentary elections together and coordinate with each other.

Second: alliances of small parties

Several separate parties are participating in the upcoming Turkish elections, which may exceed ten parties with multiple orientations, and their participation is often seen as aiming to split the ranks of large alliances, namely:

1- The Left Alliance “Labour and Freedom”

It includes parties: the Democratic Peoples’ Party, the political wing of the Kurds, along with 5 left-wing parties, namely: “The Democratic Peoples”, “Turkish Workers TİP”, “EMEP Labor”, “Social Freedom TOP”, and “EHP Labor Movement”. And the Union of Socialist Councils.

This coalition was established in August 2022 and is scheduled to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections with a unified list, without agreeing on a presidential candidate.

2- Small secular alliance “ATA”

It includes parties: the “Victory” party led by Umit Ozdag, known for its hostility to foreigners, especially Syrians, in addition to the “Justice”, “Truth” and “Turkish Alliance” and “Baladi” parties. The alliance upholds the values of Ataturk and secularism over all others, and here the name of the alliance “Ata” can be interpreted, a word taken from the word “Ataturk”.

The limited ability of this coalition to compete in the upcoming elections is not limited to its presidential and parliamentary parts, but rather the programs and plans it presents and the visions it presents for managing the country. As the alliance appears to be elitist, ideologically remarkably, and even racist, which was revealed by the statements of the head of the Justice Party regarding the formation of the new alliance, when he said, “Anyone who will be with us must stand side by side with Ataturk. It cannot be the opponents of Ataturk and the opponents of secularism With us”, and the coalition parties may agree to nominate their candidate, Sinan Ogan, to run in the presidential elections.

3- Table of six

It includes parties: the Umma Alliance (Republican People’s Party and the National Good Party) and with it the Felicity Party, the Future Party founded by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and the Democracy and Progress Party led by Ali Baba Jan, both of which were previously part of the Justice and Development Party, along with the Democratic Party .

The table tends to strengthen the areas of coordination between them in the parliamentary elections, especially as they converged on pushing a joint candidate to represent them in the presidential elections, after they chose Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the Republican People’s Party.

The parties of the table of six converge on the importance of returning to the parliamentary system, and therefore many observers believe that the table of six coalition may push everything it has in the upcoming parliamentary elections, with the aim of returning once again to the parliamentary system that ended in 2018.

  4- Independent participation

In addition to the previous existing alliances, which are still in the process of being formed, there are parties that may prefer to contest the legislative elections without entering into electoral alliances, in the forefront of which are the Democracy and Progress Party and the Future Party. This possibility is reinforced by the nature of the political practice of these two parties since their emergence three years ago. They chose to play small and limited roles in the political arena, and focused most of their political efforts with the opposition on enhancing the chances of returning to the parliamentary system.

On the other hand, at the presidential level, candidate Muharram Anja, head of the Watan Party, is running the race individually, and he is the only individual candidate after the decline of other prominent candidates such as Meral Aksnar and Dogo Brink, leader of the left-wing Nationalist Homeland Party, Cem Ozan, former head of the Youth Party, and Ahmed Ozal. One party leader.

Possible scenarios

In light of the contexts governing the Turkish electoral scene, and the map of existing and potential electoral alliances, several scenarios can be indicated regarding the possible results of the upcoming electoral process, and the political weights of the participating alliances. In this context, several levels can be indicated.

The first scenario: the continued dominance of the People’s Alliance.

It is a very real possibility, and it is reinforced by several indicators:

First: The removal of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, from the scene of the presidential elections, especially after the Turkish judiciary ruled on December 14, 2020, that Imamoglu was imprisoned for two years on charges of insulting members of the Supreme Electoral Council. The ruling also included the activation of Article 35 of the Penal Code, which imposes a ban on political activity for those convicted with a sentence exceeding two years, which may prevent Davutoglu from running for the presidential elections.

Second: The remarkable shift in the popularity of the Justice and Development Party and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as a poll conducted by Metropoll in late October 2022 showed that the percentage of support for the Turkish president rose to 47.6%, up from 39% in early 2022. Perhaps the remarkable rise in the popularity of the Turkish president is due to His recent approval of a package of social and financial aid and incentives, the most important of which is raising the minimum wage by 55%, and raising the salaries and pensions of civil servants. An opinion poll published by the “Arida Survey” Research Center between February 23-27, in which 3,000 people participated, revealed that President Erdogan received 49.8%, compared to 21.1% for his rival Kemal Kılıcaroğlu.

Third: The potential improvement in economic indicators during the coming period, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Minister of Energy and Natural

Resources Fatih Donmez announced in August 2022 that the gas discovered in the “Sakarya 1” field in the Black Sea region will enter the pumping stage in the first quarter of this year 2023. And it accompanies This is with the return of investments and bank deposits from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the Russian-Turkish projects to make the latter a center for Russian natural gas exports. And if the scenario of starting to use domestic gas in March 2023 is realized along with foreign investments, the Turkish economy may witness sufficient positive indicators to cause a shift in the orientations of Turkish voters in favor of the Justice and Development Party.

Fourth: The success of the Turkish president in settling the issue of the Syrian refugees after the rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus, and the agreement on the return of nearly a million Syrians to their country. In addition to reducing tensions with regional and international countries, especially with the Gulf states, Egypt and Greece, after the visit of the Egyptian and Greek foreign ministers to Ankara to show sympathy and assistance after the devastating earthquake in February 2023.

Fifth: The Turkish government put forward rapid plans to recover from the losses caused by the earthquake, and plans to rebuild the destroyed cities and towns in southern Turkey in a record time within one year, in addition to compensating the financial losses incurred by citizens.

On a related note, it is not unlikely that the “Justice and Development Party” and its partner, the “National Movement”, will lose the absolute majority in Parliament, in light of the continuing state of discontent over the deterioration in living conditions.

This expectation means a repeat of what happened in the general elections in 2015, when the Justice and Development Party lost its parliamentary majority, and in the event of this scenario, it will be likely that the opposition, if it forms the majority, will propose a draft change to the constitution to restore the powers of parliament that were affected by the constitutional amendments that were carried out. In 2017, the country was transferred to presidential rule.

The second scenario: the opposition secures the largest number of parliamentary seats

Since the country’s transition to a presidential system in 2017, and the decline in economic indicators, the “Nation Alliance”, with the help of its partners in the “Table of Six”, has a potential opportunity to obtain a majority of the 600 seats in Parliament, at the expense of the “Justice and Development” Party and its partner, the “National Movement”. Whoever won the parliamentary majority. An opinion poll published by Aksoy Research, a research company in Turkey, on March 13, 2023, revealed that the main opposition bloc received 44.1% of support, the Democratic People’s Party 10.3%, and the Justice and Development Party and its ally the National Movement Party 38%.

This is related to several factors:

First: The opposition exploited the state of societal tension over the situation of the Syrian refugees at home, which may allow the opposition to secure the largest number of national votes and electoral sectors that are not ideologically opposed to the refugees.

Second: The opposition’s experience in the ability to coordinate regarding the candidacy process in electoral districts. This coordination took place for the first time in the municipal elections in 2019, which contributed to its victory in Turkey’s largest municipality. Similar to what happened in the municipalities, it is expected that the Ummah Alliance parties will not present candidates in states where the other enjoys a great chance of winning, in order to prevent votes from being fragmented. It is also expected that the Nation Alliance will also coordinate with the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, despite not joining the coalition, by not fielding the Kurds with candidates in areas that represent traditional constituencies for the parties of the Nation Alliance.

Third: The success of the Ummah Alliance and its partners in investing the negative effects of economic crises, by promoting the idea of the ruling party’s wrong economic behaviors in managing the economy, and emphasizing that President Erdogan’s interference in drawing up the country’s monetary policies increased the severity of the situation, and caused the collapse of the lira’s price, and the rise of rates Unemployment and inflation, which deepened the negative effects of the living conditions of the Turkish citizen.

On the other hand, the opposition forces, whether the “Umma Alliance” or the “Table of Six”, may fail to resolve the presidential seat, given the ideological and intellectual differences between their members, which represent a challenge to building a consensual base regarding the presidential entitlement.

The third scenario: the ruling coalition loses the electoral process

In this scenario, the “Justice and Development” party and the “al-Jumhour” coalition may lose the electoral process, in both its presidential and parliamentary parts, which means the formation of a government led by the opposition. However, this scenario seems unlikely, as the “Justice and Development” party and President Erdogan still enjoy wide acceptance in popular circles, in addition to the fact that the partnership with the “Nationalist Movement” party guarantees it securing the votes of the nationalist movement.

In addition, the successes of the Turkish president in settling controversial issues with the Turkish neighboring countries allowed for a remarkable recovery in the Turkish economy, as Ankara obtained financial deposits from Gulf countries, and the markets of these countries reopened to Turkish products after years of embargo, which contributed to Revitalizing the Turkish business environment.

Fourth scenario: The Democratic People’s Party crossed the electoral threshold and lost the presidential seat

It is expected that Salah al-Din Demirtas, who announced in early January 2023 from prison, will fail to run for the presidential elections, through his Twitter account, which is managed by his lawyer. However, it is highly likely that the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party will be able to cross the threshold of 7% of the total vote, which is set by Turkish electoral law as a condition for any party to enter parliament, and win a significant number of seats, perhaps up to about 80 seats, especially since there are There is a sure chance that the voter turnout among the Kurds will increase significantly during the upcoming elections.

In parallel with the above, there are potential opportunities for the presence and seats of the Democratic People’s Party to rise in the next parliament, and if it succeeds in winning a number of seats, it will push with the rest of the opposition forces towards a return to the parliamentary system. On the other hand, it is not likely that the “Democratic People’s Party” will expand the circle of political understandings with the “Table of Six”, if it passes the next parliament, against the background of its exclusion by the six-party alliance, which angered the Kurdish party, which is facing a lawsuit to dissolve it on charges of terrorism. .

Fifth scenario: the decline of the influence of “small parties”

There are expectations that small parties, whether integrated in leftist or secular alliances, will not have the chance to enter parliament, and that if these parties run for elections independently or meet in electoral alliances, they may not be able to enter parliament. It exceeds 5% of the total vote, and that its entry into the electoral process comes as a result of its endeavor to ensure presence in the political scene or impose its conditions, and to maximize its gains from the main political forces in the event that none of them is able to resolve the presidential elections in the first round.

Finally; It can be said that there are expectations of a change in the upcoming electoral scene represented in the rise of the opposition in Parliament, and obtaining a number of additional seats compared to the 2018 elections, in which it won 230 seats, including 138 seats for the Republican People’s Party, and 36 seats for the Good Party, compared to 56 seats for the Kurdish Democratic Peoples.

As for the presidential elections, the most likely scenario is that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins the presidential seat in the second round, even though the opposition was able to field a consensual candidate.

Resources:

https://strategiecs.com/ar/analyses/%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A-2023

https://1a1072.azureedge.net/politics/2023/3/14/%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%A3%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A6%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9

https://marsad.ecss.com.eg/76751/

https://fikercenter.com/2023/01/18/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-2023/

Since the sudden demise of Gambia’s Vice-President, Dr. Badara Joof, there have been wild rumours about his replacement; however, it appears that President Adama Barrow, who has the constitutional prerogative to appoint a Vice-President, is not in haste to name one, thus far. When the President paid a visit to the bereaved family to offer his condolences, he spoke at the event, touting the virtues of Mr. Joof and admitting that a replacement with similar expectations would be challenging. Among the most important criteria that the Mr. Barrow highlighted that informed his decision to tap Mr. Joof as his Vice-President is that the latter did not have his eyes set on his seat, in addition to his knowledge, integrity, experience, competence, diligence and selflessness. This is probably why the President is taking his time to find a suitable replacement for Mr. Joof, which suggests that the wait could be longer than expected.

The Office of Vice-President is essential for Section 70 (1) of the Constitution provides that: “ There shall be a Vice-President of The Gambia who shall be the principal assistant of the President in the discharge of his or her executive functions and shall exercise such other functions as may be conferred on him or her by this Constitution or assigned to him or her by the President.” Meanwhile, section (5) (c ) of the same Constitution stipulates that the President shall appoint a Vice-President in case of death.

Considering the aforementioned and the vacancy of the position of Vice-President, I believe it is paramount that the President expedite the process of finding and naming a new Vice-President to coordinate government affairs, particularly since the Vice-President is considered to be the middleman between the Executive and the Legislative authorities. The country is facing numerous challenges that need to be tackled head-on, including the skyrocketing inflation and attendant soaring commodity prices, the rise of crime rate, and the dilapidated health care system, to mention a few. A technocrat, level-headed and competent vice president can make a difference in overcoming the challenges mentioned above. While the Constitution does not specify any specific deadline for naming a Vice-President, in case of a death, the sooner the better.

By Basidia M Drammeh

The fighting in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces has received regional and international attention since its outbreak on the fifteenth of April, especially as it threatens the security and stability of a fragile region.

The main players on the regional and international arenas did not hesitate to intervene in the conflict, whether directly or indirectly.

Egypt

Egypt has a long-term interest in Sudan’s stability, given the two countries’ common border and the strategic importance of the Nile River.

Egypt actively participated in the mediation between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, addressing the two parties to contain the crisis and reach a cease-fire agreement. Egypt’s primary motive is to prevent a large-scale civil war in Sudan, which could lead to an influx of refugees and negatively affect water security in Egypt.

And if the clashes in Sudan prolong and widen, this will also affect the trade partnership between the two countries, especially since an estimated part of Sudan’s agricultural and animal exports reach the Egyptian market, including what is re-exported to other countries in light of the sanctions imposed on Sudan.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia has concerns about the expansion of the Sudanese conflict, its extension, and the repercussions of that on stability in the region.

And as a neighbor of Sudan and a major player in the Nile River Basin, it has an interest in ensuring that the conflict does not escalate. In addition, the ongoing tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed Al-Fashqa region and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) make Ethiopia a stakeholder in Sudan’s stability.

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played an important role in Sudanese affairs, particularly in their support of the Rapid Support Forces. Both countries provided financial and military assistance to these forces, especially since they were the pillars of the Saudi-led coalition in the Yemen war, where Sudanese soldiers, most of whom were from the Rapid Support Forces, participated on the side of the coalition in the fight against the Ansar Allah Houthi movement, which strengthened the capabilities of the Rapid Support financially and militarily.

In addition to this, the UAE is interested in gold, in which the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hamedti), has large investments in it since the ousted President Omar al-Bashir granted him the rights to excavate it in Jabal Amer so that he could pay the salaries of his soldiers.

It is also possible that Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s support for the RSF was motivated by the two countries’ quest to counter Iranian influence in the region while maintaining a strong military presence in the Horn of Africa.

International players

United State

The United States expressed its concern about the situation in Sudan, and called on its Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who made phone calls with the army commander, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and with the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, during which he called for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the two parties.

Earlier, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said that the United States is in close contact with Sudanese military leaders and is pressing them to extend the ceasefire, and to explore options for restoring Sudan’s diplomatic and consular presence as soon as possible.

It was reported that the United States is currently studying the idea of imposing sanctions on members of the army and the Rapid Support Forces, although observers of the American affairs say that these sanctions will be useless if imposed by Washington and that it is too late to take such a step.

These observers and Sudanese and international human rights activists say that the United States does not want to impose any sanctions in Africa, and they add that if it wanted to do so, it would have imposed sanctions on the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces following the dispersal of the sit-in in front of the army command in Khartoum on June 3, 2019. In the same context, they point out that Washington did not impose sanctions on the Ethiopian leadership in the war against the Tigray region, which lasted two years and resulted in the deaths of more than 600,000 people, in addition to the US preoccupation with the war in Ukraine.

The United States’ interest in Sudan’s stability is likely driven by its broader strategic goals in the region, including combating terrorism, promoting democracy, and curbing the influence of China and Russia on the continent.

Russia

Russia’s interference in Sudanese affairs is more limited, as it formally focuses mainly on providing military assistance and training to the Sudanese army.

This support is consistent with Russia’s broader strategy to increase its influence in Africa and secure access to natural resources. It is noteworthy that the Rapid Support Commander visited Moscow in the last week of February 2022 in an eight-day visit that sparked widespread controversy, as there was talk at the time about the possibility of granting Moscow A military base in Port Sudan.

Therefore, Russia’s role in Sudan has been criticized by some Western countries, which argue that it will exacerbate tensions between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, especially since a close relationship linked the Russian Wagner Group and Rapid Support in the field of armament, training, guarding, and the gold sector.

Although the group and the RSF commander were quick to deny any role they had in the current fighting, the US CNN said, quoting Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources, that the Wagner Group is providing the RSF with missiles to help in its fight against the army.

The sources said that the surface-to-air missiles greatly enhanced the combat capabilities of the Rapid Support Forces.

CNN added that satellite images detected an unusual movement in Wagner bases in Libya, neighboring Sudan, reinforcing these allegations, as Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, who is supported by Wagner, controls swathes of Libyan territory.

It is noteworthy that the European Union imposed sanctions on Wagner’s branch in Sudan, after investigations revealed the group’s role in gold exploitation.

The Wagner Group played a central role in Moscow’s foreign military campaigns, specifically in Ukraine, and was repeatedly accused of atrocities. In Africa, Wagner contributed to the growing influence of Moscow and the seizure of resources.

China

China has adopted a more cautious approach to the conflict in Sudan, seeking to maintain a balance between its economic interests and a commitment to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.

While China continued to invest in Sudan’s oil and construction sectors, it also called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and offered to mediate between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces. China’s interest in Sudan’s stability stems primarily from its desire to secure access to natural resources and expand its economic influence in the region.

Needless to say, the conflict between the Sudanese army and the RSF has attracted significant participation from regional and international players, each with their own motivations and interests.

While some actors, such as Egypt and Ethiopia, focus primarily on maintaining regional stability, others, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia, have more strategic goals in Sudan. The continued participation of these players in the conflict in Sudan underscores the complex and multidimensional nature of the crisis and highlights at the same time the challenges of finding an immediate solution to it and achieving a lasting peace that prevents the country from slipping into a civil war that is widening and protracted.

Sources:

https://www.bbc.com/arabic/middleeast-65360440  

https://www.alarabiya.net/arab-and-world/american-elections-2016/2023/04/24/

With the dawn of each “Independence” anniversary on February 18th, we, as Gambians, blow horns, sing, drum and cheer to celebrate “Independence Day.” This year shall be no exception.

Independence is defined as “freedom from being governed or ruled by another country, or the ability to live your life without being helped or influenced by other people: In other words, it is the status of being not subject to another’s authority or jurisdiction.

The jamboree begs the question: Are we truly independent? Yes, we seem to be free from being ruled by another country. Yes, we have our own State with defined boundaries called the Gambia. Yes, we have our democratically-elected Government and State institutions in place. Nevertheless, are we politically, culturally and economically independent?

Are we really independent when the Gambia is ranked 174 out of 189 countries and territories by the UNDP’s Human Development Index, HDI? Are we really independent when more than a third of The Gambia’s population lives below the U.N. poverty line of $1.25 per day? Are we really independent when the debt-to-GDP ratio is at 88%? Are we really independent when we still heavily rely on donor countries for budgetary support? Are we really independent when the bulk majority of the population does not have access to a decent healthcare system? Are we really independent when our people continue to die from curable diseases? Are we really independent when the education quality and standards are in sustained decline? Are we really independent when we cannot formulate an independent foreign policy? Are we really independent when English remains our official language and lingua franca? Are we really independent when hundreds of our young men perish in the so-called perilous backway journey to reach the shores of Europe in search of ”greener pastures”?

Yes, there is no doubt that our country has witnessed some progress, but the so-called independence leaves a lot to be desired. The Gambia continues to bank on donor handouts and loans for budgetary support to fund the bulk majority of its development projects. Successive Gambian administrations lamented the lack of resources; hence they had to reach out for foreign aid. Our leaders spend little time governing as they keep crisscrossing the world, soliciting aid packages. Sadly, the funds secured are largely siphoned into deep pockets. The rest is spent on endless conferences and flashy vehicles rather than ensuring that the funds trickle down to the actual beneficiaries who make up the majority of the population: The poor. We are still characterized as a heavily indebted nation.

It’s high time that our leaders came up with a sustainable development plan that would contain a long-term vision to generate wealth in order to lift the people out of abject poverty, among other things.

As we mark the 58th birthday of our nationhood, “Independence Day” should serve as a moment of sombre reflection for all of us, the rulers and the ruled alike, to ponder on our past and get answers for the critical questions above to forge ahead as a viable nation.

I finally take this opportunity to pay homage to our founding fathers, who have led the struggle for independence.

By Basidia M Drammeh

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into our daily lives is happening at a rapid pace, and its influence has spilled over into the realm of international politics. From shaping public opinion to altering the dynamics of competition between nations, AI has the potential to significantly impact the future of global relations. In the current global situation, we need to know the ways in which AI is transforming the world of international politics and the challenges and opportunities it presents.

One of the most pressing concerns with the use of AI in international politics is the potential for manipulation of public opinion. With advanced algorithms and vast amounts of data, AI systems can generate highly targeted and persuasive messages that can impact political discourse and even sway elections. As former Facebook data scientist Sophie Zhang warns, “The systems we’ve built at Facebook are just amplifying the worst of us.” The threat of AI being used for malicious purposes highlights the need for regulations and oversight to ensure that it is used ethically and for the betterment of society.

The impact of AI on the competitiveness between nations is another significant aspect to consider. With AI systems becoming increasingly advanced and capable of performing complex tasks, they have the potential to revolutionize industries and upset established power structures. This is particularly true in the realm of military technology, where AI is being used to develop autonomous weapons and other advanced technologies.

China’s investment in AI research and development with the goal of becoming a world leader in the field is an example of this. As Xiaoming Liu, a researcher at the University of Cambridge, states, “China’s rapid development in AI is likely to have significant implications for the global distribution of power.” This underlines the importance of cooperation and collaboration among nations to ensure that the benefits of AI are distributed equitably.

However, AI also holds tremendous potential for bringing nations closer together and fostering cooperation. AI can be utilized to tackle global problems such as climate change and pandemics by providing countries with access to vast amounts of data and analytical tools. It can also play a role in promoting cross-cultural understanding and peace by breaking down linguistic and cultural barriers and promoting empathy between nations.

The impact of AI on international politics is complex and far-reaching, and it is crucial that nations approach its integration with care. By using AI in a responsible and ethical manner, we can reap its benefits and work towards a more peaceful and prosperous world. As former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates reminds us, “We must ensure that AI serves humanity, and not the other way around.” To achieve this, nations must take steps to regulate its use and promote transparency in its development and deployment. By taking a proactive approach to AI’s integration into international politics and considering its impact on society, we can ensure that its influence is positive and equitable for all.

Once again the African continent experiences a major regional tension as a result of colonialist

moves and decisions made throughout the last few centuries. The geo-political game played between

all European superpowers within the continent created a bunch of long-term consequences, which

are indeed still visible now a day.

There are infinite examples for proving this statement right. This article specifically is intended to

analyze one big conflict created out of the colonial era; the repercussions of which have recently

been reminded of in the media: the long-lasting rivalry over the Nile River amongst Egypt, Ethiopia

and Sudan.

An historical overview

Back in the 1950’s, Britain established its colonies around the Nile River, as this represented the most

crucial natural asset in the African continent. Once the imperialist époque was put to an end, this

valuable natural resource was divided into two, each attributed to Egypt and Sudan respectively.

However, just like the African countries’ borders were drawn in a very geometric random manner,

the Nile’s division was also made while completely ignoring the reality on the ground. In fact, the

Nile’s waters appeared to be, in a large part, under possession of the Ethiopian government, and

many more African countries around the Nile. Ethiopia could survive as a country precisely because

of its use of the Nile River as a major source for the maintenance of its social and political stability.

Actually, Ethiopia had even been the first African country able to escape the colonialist influence

thanks to the independence that the River provided her with. Thus, as soon as the British made

promises to their old colonies, leaving Ethiopia out of the picture, tensions between the three

countries commenced. All of a sudden, the Nile turned from a major energy source into a major

conflict source, which would last for thousands of years.

The quest for all the African countries to attain regional power and influence after their

independence was given from the colonial countries would create a race between all big countries to

ensure as many resources as possible. Egypt, on the one hand, had always ambitioned to be a leading

country in the continent. Ethiopia, on the other hand, had desired to follow a rapid development

path, a political transformation and to reach a respectable weight in the continent’s political

dynamics.

Recent advancements

Egypt had, since then, become extremely dependent on the Nile waters for drinking use, energy

purposes, agricultural matters and many more. All of which explains the very reluctant, nearly

repulsive, reaction of the Egyptian government in the moment Ethiopia announced, in 2011, its

intentions to build the biggest hydroelectric damn across the river’s largest tributary, the Blue Nile.

The so-called Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Damn (GERD) project—aimed at using water as a system

for energy production— sparked an imminent threat to Egypt, and represented an escalating factor

in the already tense Egypt-Ethiopia relations. During the last years this was considered to be an

element capable of triggering a regional war, would Egypt be interested in protecting its lifeline.

Nevertheless, out of a common interest to safeguard the region’s serenity and avoid the upset of the

geopolitical balance, such hypothetical war has been contained up until now.

According to Ethiopian authorities the GERD project is to be ready to produce electricity in 2017, and

will be the largest hydroelectric project in Africa, counting on some 8,500 laborers who are already

working around the clock to build it. 

The reason this issue has come back to the front pages in the media is the following: since the

beginning of 2015 Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and

Ethiopian Prime Minister Halemariam Desalegn signed a declaration in Sudan’s capital Khartoum,

pledging to better share the Nile’s waters. Such a deal could not have been reached before Sisi

replaced its predecessor Mohammed Morsi. Sisi’s policy towards the Ethiopian dam appeared to be

quite more appeased, as opposed to Morsi, who threatened the initiation of a war in repeated

occasions. “The lives of the Egyptians are connected around [the Nile]… If it diminishes by one drop

then our blood is the alternative,” he said in a broadcast speech at the time. But Mr. Sisi has put

forward a more conciliatory note with the Ethiopians, while Sudan, normally in line with Cairo’s

policy over the Nile, has been acting as an intermediary.

As such, the March 2015 agreement includes a consensus amongst the three leaders over a

“declaration of principles”. Given that the Nile issue has been touching upon the national security

concerns of the three countries, this agreement reached upon aims, above all, to rebuild a solid trust

between the three governments. This agreement outlines 10 principles determining the managerial

approach that Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt should adopt for the Eastern Nile waters. The principles:

common understanding, good faith, development, not causing significant damage, fair and

appropriate use of water, trust building, exchange of information and data, dam security,

sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of the state, and peaceful settlement of disputes.

However, given that previous agreements signed throughout history, including the colonial era, have

not been annulled by this new declaration of principles, we should highlight the importance of the

principle of good faith, the major pillar of respect for the signed agreement. 

As the Taliban continues to be diplomatically marginalized, they made a request to the world community, asking them to recognize their “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” The international community has pushed the group to build a government that includes everyone and to guarantee that women’s rights are protected; however, the Taliban appears to have disregarded these demands.
The de facto authorities published a decree on the 24th of December prohibiting women from working in NGOs. This most recent directive came after an earlier one that barred women from attending universities and prevented girls from attending secondary schools.By preventing women from enrolling in higher education programmes, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan delivered what was likely the death blow to the cause of educating women. After making pledges to protect women’s rights the new authorities of Afghanistan have ultimately decided to close all of the schools in the country, forcing female students in grades seven through twelve to remain at home.
The Taliban have reneged on the majority of the pledges they made shortly after their return to power in August of 2021. Thousands of  Afghans, including women, have fled the nation out of fear that the Taliban would return to power and continue the bloody rule they established in the 1990s. The Taliban’s policy of systemic discrimination is being carried on in its current iteration, which prohibits women from entering universities.
Since August 2021, Taliban have prevented girls from attending secondary schools, limited women’s and girls’ freedom of movement, excluded women from the majority of available jobs.  Since the Taliban have taken control of Afghanistan, women and girls have been effectively excluded from Afghani public life. In the beginning, the Taliban made hollow claims that women would be able to “enjoy their rights within Sharia law,” which included the ability to work and study. However, these assurances turned out to be nothing more than hollow promises. Women are expected to conceal their faces in public and must have a male chaperone whenever they travel, and they are prohibited from working outside the home for the most part. In addition, women are not permitted to vote or hold public office.

In most professions, women were not allowed to work outside the home. Only women whose occupations could not be done by men were allowed to come to work, for example, limited jobs in education, health, and some jobs in the police force. The same proclamation also stated that the sole employment that women were permitted to do for the government of Kabul was to clean female restrooms. Women who had positions as judges, prosecutors, and attorneys have either departed the country or been demoted and replaced by former Taliban fighters and graduates of Madrasas (traditional schools) who have no prior experience in the judicial system. Initially, and prior to the implementation of the new limits in December 2022, the Taliban enforced a prohibition on girls participating in secondary education, which included grades 7 through 12. Girls were not permitted to return to secondary schools, despite the fact that the de facto authorities had previously committed to doing so.

The Taliban adhere to a puritanical interpretation of Islam, and the supreme head of the movement, Hibatullah Akhundzada, along with his inner circle of Afghan clerics, are staunch opponents of modern education, particularly for girls and women.
It is imperative that the Taliban immediately lift their ban on the enrollment of women in universities and allow secondary schools for female students in Afghanistan to reopen. It is imperative that the international community, as well as the countries that provide aid to Afghanistan, make it clear to the Taliban how damaging it will be for not only Afghan women and girls, but for the entire population of Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s army is one of the largest armies in the world. Historically, the reason behind the creation of armies was to protect society from any external threats. With the change in the war dynamics and the nature of the threats to any state, the responsibilities of the armies have also expanded. Pakistan has been mired in internal as well as external challenges enhancing the army’s responsibilities. Whenever there is a disaster, the army is called, for the traditional and non-traditional security threats army is looked at. But with such vast responsibilities, it looks like the army wold has asked for a huge proportion of the country’s budget. But, this is not the case. Pakistan army under current COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa has not just asked for a limited budget but contributed also through other means to protect the economy.

Over the past fifty years, looking at the enfeebling economy, the army’s budget has also decreased. In the 1970s army’s budget was 6.5% of the total GDP, compared to 2.54% in 2021. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Pakistan spends much lesser than other countries, despite being 7th largest army in the world. Oman spends 12%, Lebanon 10.5%, Saudi Arabia 8%, Kuwait 7.1%, Algeria 6.7%, Iraq 5.8%, UAE 5.6%, Azerbaijan 4%, Turkey 2.77%, Morocco 5.3%, Israel 5.2%, Jordan 4.9%. Armenia 4.8%, Mali 4.5%, Qatar 4.4%, Russia 3.9%, US 3.4%, and India 3.1%. Pakistan spends much lesser on its soldiers compared to the other countries, which ultimately spares room for the economy to allocate the budget for other developmental projects. In the fiscal year 2020/21, the Pakistan army contributed PKR 28bn to the country’s economy through direct tax.

Also read: Walking in The Narrow Corridor: Pakistan Government and the Balochistan Problem

Besides, the Pakistan army is also contributing to welfare as well as creating job opportunities. Fauji Foundation is perceived as a business venture of the Pakistan army. But the reality is something else. Fauji Foundation is a charitable trust working under the Charitable Endowment Act of 1890 whose more than 73% of its income is directly spent on Shuhada, war wounded, and disabled soldiers. In 2021, FF’s contribution to welfare activities has reached RS 1 billion per annum. Moreover, Fauji Group is among the highest taxpayers. The number of civilian employees in FG is more than military workers. There are 22,652 civilians and around 4000 ex-servicemen in Fauji Foundation. DHAs are also a self-sustaining initiative that not only supports society but also provides economic opportunities. Special Communication Organization (SCO) is another organization that has generated 4612 jobs in the communication sector. It is a telecom network in AJ&K and GB. Besides these organizations, FWO, NLC, and ITS are other organizations and systems that help the country in infrastructural development and also in bringing social stability through economic and job opportunities.

Pakistan army has played important role in resolving international disputes that could cost Pakistan badly through economic penalties. Karkey Karadeniz Electrik Uterim, Rekodiq, and FATF are some important issues. Karkey Karadeni Electrik Uterim, a Turkish company was involved in corruption in Turkey, Switzerland, Lebanon, Panama, and Dubai. When the evidence was produced in front of the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes Tribunal, Pakistan was fined $1.2 bn. This could shrink Pakistan’s economy by 2%. Pakistan army resolved the disputes through negotiations. In the Rekodiq case, Pakistan was fined $11 bn, but negotiations with all the relevant stakeholders helped in resolving the dispute. Several rounds of negotiations were held to resolve the matter. After the resolution, the project brought economic and social opportunities for the people of Baluchistan. The government of Pakistan will pay a revenue stream to the Government of Baluchistan. It will create 8000 job opportunities for skilled labor while for the non-skilled labor, the project will create 12000 jobs. Pakistan has been relieved from the FATF Grey List. This has only become possible because of efforts from the political and military institutions. Counter-terrorism was the most specific concern of the FATF authorities, and the world knows the contributions the Pakistan army has made in countering extremist and terrorist factions in the country.

Last but not the least, under the current COAS, the government has been paying a lot of attention to the security of CPEC. Baluchistan is the most destabilized province due to extremist organizations. It enhances the army’s responsibilities to provide extra protection to foreign workers and developmental projects. Because these extremist factions have been targeting foreign nationals and developmental projects. So, 2 exclusive SSD units have been raised for CPEC security and also a comprehensive security mechanism has been evolved for protecting foreign nationals.

It shows how Pakistan’s army has evolved effectively among the world’s best armies with the minimum budget required for such initiatives.

Ferguson was very right when he elaborated state is comprised of two entities, society, and government. Society is comprised of people, institutions, cultures, different ethnic and pressure groups, etc. While the government is the ruler of the state. Ferguson said that the efficiency and the working of the state depend upon the relations of the society with the government. They walk in a narrow corridor holding each other accountable for their actions and asking to fulfill their duties as explained in Rousseau’s social contract. Pakistan is also such a state where the groups and the government are in a tussle with each other. Balochistan has indulged in insurgencies against the state leaving vulnerabilities for external actors to exploit them. Now, walking in the narrow corridor, society and the government do not cross the limits. There are duties and responsibilities lying at each other’s end. There are ways to cater to each other and if anyone goes beyond, the balance in the state comes under trouble. What is happening in Balochistan is the result of entities crossing their limits and that is why the balance is distorted.

Also read: Developing Balochistan: Answering Baloch Grievances 

Right after the inception, there started insurgencies in Balochistan against the center. Hitherto, these insurgencies were led by Sardars who held political influence in the region. But what is happening today in Balochistan is violent where non-state extremist actors are running campaigns against the center. The first limit is crossed by these groups. Instead of opting for a political solution, the government chose military means to suppress the insurgency. In some ways, the military aspect of the counterinsurgency can be justified as there is multiple evidence proving foreign intervention through these proxies in destabilizing Balochistan. Kulbhushan Yadav was just one example of India supporting Baloch insurgents. Aslam Baloch, the commander of the Majeed Brigade of BLA is notorious for its attacks on foreign citizens, and security personnel often seeks his medical treatment in India. So, it is necessary to cut these insurgent groups to their size through military means.

Under current COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the military has contributed a lot in catering to this insurgency issue. But only military means cannot resolve the Balochistan issue. Analysts have variously recommended that the military can bring only short-term peace in the region. The Baloch insurgent groups can be banished, but as these groups have local support, it will be impossible to have it all resolved by military might.

Until the social and economic grievances of the Baloch people are not answered through political means, the troubled world remains there. Whether it is the political representation of the Baloch, providing economic opportunities for them, giving them shares in the CPEC, and bringing development, the states must change their policies towards Balochistan. One of the major concerns of Baloch is the establishment of extensive check posts and military checks. Although these checks are necessary amidst threats from foreign proxies, to compensate and consolidate the Baloch, some check posts must be eradicated. The government must prove that insurgent groups are not serving the interest of Baloch but rather instigating instability. This cannot be proven by hard means but rather by engaging them softly to show up they matter to the government.

Sometimes, one has to sacrifice and be intimate to collaborate with others to benefit all. If the government does not take this initiative, it will keep on costing the state because insurgent groups are neither interested in negotiation nor they serve the interests of Baloch. So it’s up to the government how it should engage the Baloch people, and ask of their grievances to be answered. Otherwise, the balance in Pakistan relative to relations between society and government will remain troubled. Walking in the narrow corridor has some principles to be followed to benefit the whole house.

The conference and exhibition aims were to stimulate a new vision of health through information technology, building on the experience of Tunisia and others who will share their knowledge and expertise during the event. AMDHC is designed to enable attendees to learn from other Digital Health transformation strategies and programmes, as well as understanding the services and applications that can be used, standards that need to be applied and interoperability, the event desired to stimulate and accelerate the digitalisation of healthcare across the region.

With over 500m2 of exhibition space and over 40 exhibitors, attendees of the conference and exhibition were able to see systems in operation and speak to those who can provide solutions to digitalise healthcare. With 50 speakers from across the world, and a programme of tailored events, the conference and exhibition hosted over 150 doctors, IT engineers, digital health experts also atttended. Indeed, it’s been a great opportunity to listen to experienced experts from across the world as well as meet and network with innovative suppliers and build a regional digital healthcare community across Africa and the Middle East.

The recent global pandemic has highlighted the importance being able to collect and collate data from across a broad area so it can be analysed and used in the fight of diseases and illness. Digital healthcare systems can enable this and thus facilitate a focus of resources into keenly affected areas and allow decision makers to be able to make crucial decisions, with facts. More broadly, digital healthcare systems create an ability to care for more people across a broader geography. It allows access to medical records, which can be crucial when treating the sick, and eases access to healthcare.

Mr Izhar Mahjoub, AMDHC Head of Scientific Committee, said, “Tunisia has a huge amount of experience in the digitalisation of healthcare systems and is well placed to become a hub from which Africa and the Middle East can build and expand their digital healthcare systems. The Africa and Middle East Digital Health Conference and Exhibition is the perfect opportunity for experts and healthcare professionals to come together, learn from other programmes and see the latest innovation in this space.

During the conference and exhibition, there was a coordinated B2B and B2C opportunity to meet with speakers and experts through the AMDHC Fireside Chat programme. This opportunity was a chance to discuss ideas and technologies with experts.