This March, removal of the two-term limit on the presidency was approved in the annual sitting of the National People’s Congress of China paving the way for President Xi Jinping to be the lifetime president.  President Xi has been enjoying the position of power in the same way it was enjoyed by the Chairman Mao Zedong until 1976. However, removal of two-term limit gave president Xi central authority to continue his policies beyond 2023 which would have marked the end of his second term. Lifetime presidency, nonetheless, can be termed as a de facto monarchy as per the political science paradigm. Thus, this historical approval can be termed as the return of one man rule in China. 

China’s recent Past of One Man Rule:

After the Chinese Civil War (1949), Mao Zedong asserted the foundation of People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949. He became Chairman of the Communist Party of China in 1942 and held the position until his death in 1976. China was under one-man rule from 1949 to 1976. During that period, Chairman Mao held the central administrative as well symbolic authority over China. This two-term limit was enacted in 1982 under the rule of Deng Xiaoping who not only made political reforms in China but also liberalized Chinese economy.

Contemporary Wave of One Man Rule:

It would not be wrong to say that the current era of international politics is faced with the wave of one man rule. Vladimir Putin is ruling Russia since 2000 and he was elected again on March 18 Russian elections, Turkey is under Recep Tayyib Erdogan rule since 2003 and Erdogan has strengthened his grip after 2016 failed coup attempt and Angela Merkel has become German Chancellor for the fourth time (chosen democratically though). However, all these rulers are backed by their respective constitutions. China has joined the club with the abolishing of the two-term limit on the presidency and became of the part of the contemporary wave of one man rule. Monarchies are deliberately not discussed here.

Need for Return of One Man Rule in China:

Some analysts believe that China returned to one man rule to pose a challenge to the American leadership in the world. This may not be an explicit motive behind the return as China has been overtly claiming that it would not seek hegemony since former President Hu Jintao’s era. However, under Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, China needs to fill the gap. For that, one man with the authoritative position has to take the stand. Moreover, China needs Xi Jinping to materialize Xi’s ‘National Rejuvenation’ program and the ‘Road and Belt Initiative’ which he termed project of the Century. Additionally, in today’s geopolitics, countries are directing power in one hand and their leaders have assumed offices without any intention to leave. What matters to them is quality, not quantity. Similarly, China has followed  to concentrate power in one man’s hand.

Conclusion:

No one knows what this return of one man rule will bring for China and for the world in general in the future. However, in a trumped world, China needs to strengthen its position regarding long-term projects like the Belt and Road Initiative under the man who penned them. Return of one rule should not be surprising in the realist world where a president of a superpower terms global warming a hoax. States behave in their national interests and they would take all measures to secure their national interests. China did the same irrespective of how the world, especially western democracies (which are moving from liberal to illiberal democracies themselves), would perceive it.  As former American Ambassador to China, Gary Faye Locke said about China,

 

“China’s history is marked by thousands of years of world-changing innovations: from the compass and gunpowder to acupuncture and the printing press. No one should be surprised that China has re-emerged as an economic superpower.”

In the same passion, no one should be surprised the day China would emerge as a superpower in all aspects for which China is on its way under President Xi Jinping.

 

Muhammad Murad has been writing for different magazines and blogs since 2011. He initially started writing on social issues of Pakistan and later on, he began writing on internal and external issues related to Pakistan. Currently, he is Young Diplomats’ ambassador in Pakistan. He believes in a peaceful liberal democratic world away from war and conflict which would be possible by the power of the pen, not the gun. Muhammad is a business graduate turned  social scientist and aspires to be a writer.

 

It’s over two years now since the World trade organization ‘effectively’ ended negotiations on the Doha Rounds, but what Impact could it have had on global trade?

What are the Doha Rounds?

The Doha Development Round of WTO negotiations which started in 2001 essentially sought to tackle this, as a means of lowering Global trade barriers through cutting subsidies to a level where unsubsidized exports would have been competitive.

Image result for Doha rounds

The Doha ministerial declaration gave birth to the ‘Doha Rounds’ of multilateral trade negotiations with the main objective of lowering trade barriers among other things, thereby fundamentally tackling sticky issues like agricultural subsidies employed by developed nations which continues to empower their domestic agricultural sectors in an effort to create monopoly and drive out competition in global trade.

The Importance of Agriculture

The West spends billions of dollars in direct agricultural subsidies, annually, basically giving artificial economic power to their domestic agricultural sectors

Agriculture is arguably one aspect where developing and least developed countries enjoy a comparative advantage but remains a sector that is overwhelmingly subsidized in developed countries, something that global trade experts effectively considered as a barrier to trade.

The Doha Development Round of WTO negotiations which started in 2001 essentially sought to tackle this, as a means of lowering Global trade barriers through cutting subsidies to a level where unsubsidized exports would have been competitive.

The West spends billions of dollars in direct agricultural subsidies, annually, basically giving artificial economic power to their domestic agricultural sectors thus making it extremely difficult if not impossible for any outside competition.  In fact, such agricultural subsidies also continue to create what is termed as ‘international dumping’ whereby subsidized farmers ‘dump’low-cost agricultural goods in foreign markets and drives out local farmers from developing countries as these governments do not have the economic might to grant fat agricultural financial backing.

As Lord Mark Malloch Brown, former head of the UNDP succinctly puts it in one of his interviews: “it is this extraordinary distortion of global trade, where the West spends $360 billion a year on protecting its agriculture with a network of subsidies and tariffs that costs developing countries about US$50 billion in potential lost agricultural exports.”

And so the ‘death’ of this ambitious Doha Development Agenda (DDA) has grossly damaged the credibility of globalization and is profusely hurting the least-developed countries, which are increasingly becoming anxious to export some of their agricultural goods into the western markets.

The Example of Haiti

A good example of a country adversely affected by agricultural subsidies in the developed world is Haiti. With a capacity to produce enough rice to feed its people, but it is now largely dependent on imported subsidized food as the unsubsidized local farmers can no more compete with the incursion of ‘international dumping’.

This is the magnitude of the trade barrier that the Doha Rounds intended to wipe out.

But these negotiations which were originally planned to conclude in 2005 continue to draw stalemate after more than a decade of the initially planned date of conclusion of talks.

There doesn’t seem to be any solution to the impasse and with over two years after the last WTO ministerial meeting in Nairobi, and with substantially no agreement thus far, we can safely say that the Doha Round has finally died. Developing countries will be looking across their shoulders at what could have been, as they continuously accede to agreements which essentially only allow the west to benefit.

Abraham Zaqi Kromah 

Director of Young Diplomats Liberia

Abraham Zaqi is passionate young Liberian about international affairs and diplomacy, especially economic diplomacy and the rising powers.My interest is how to be able to use diplomacy and global relations as a tool to promote equal opportunities for both the developing and developed states.As a law school graduate, I focus my research efforts mainly on the legal instruments that underlie international affairs.I am presently an LLM student with a very strong concentration on mainly the WTO and its various agreements as a means of promoting multilateral trade.

New trade agreements between Brazil and Israel are in the works, with new deals bestowing scientific and defense technologies on Brazil. In late February, the Brazilian Senate website announced that Israel would be offering guidance and technology to help with water sustainability, with a particular focus on desalinization technologies.

A few days later, Israel’s Minister of Science and Technology Ofir Akunis confirmed that defense technology would be another part of this deal. “We are among the ‘top 10’ in space and satellite technology, and we know there is a lot of interest in Brazil in this area,” he told Valor.

Akunis traveled to Brasília in early March on his first official visit, meeting with Brazil’s science minister Gilberto Kassab. The two ministers, along with director of the Israeli Space Agency Leo Vinovezky, visited Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Alerting Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and Embraer.

Jayme Blay, president of the Brazil-Israel Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CAMBICI), told The Brazilian Report that he believes the two countries have “complementary economies”, with new agreements bringing benefits to both parties.

“Israel exports technology, and Brazil benefits twice over, as much with the products developed there in the country as with those that are exporter. On the other hand, Israel tries to buy more Brazilian products to favor trade,” he said.

“Israel is strong in technology, but we are not growing coffee or producing meat,” Yossi Shelley, Israel’s ambassador to Brazil, told The Brazilian Report. “And now, those things are being brought here in good quantities. It’s a win-win.”

Shelley confirmed to The Brazilian Report that agreements have been signed between the two governments in relation to satellite technology, as well as defense technology including certain types of missiles, radars and high-tech surveillance cameras.

Brazil has historically imported weapons from Israel. According to the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Research, Brazil is Israel’s fifth largest weapons importer. This looks set to continue, as governments have now signed a security agreement recently developed under the supervision of Brazilian defense minister Raul Jungmann.

“In the last few years, Brazil has purchased a lot of surveillance equipment from Israel on account of the World Cup and the Olympics,” Maurício Santoro, an international relations professor at Rio de Janeiro state university (UERJ), explained to The Brazilian Report. “And of course, the demand may continue with the federal intervention in Rio.”

Meanwhile on March 14, CAMBICI representatives met with Dr. Ami Appelbaum, chief scientist at Israel’s Ministry of Economics and Industry and chairman of the Israel Innovation Authority. During the meeting, Appelbaum presented agribusiness, health, and cybersecurity as potential areas of collaboration between Brazil and Israel.

‘Friendlier relations’

The final agreements have now been signed by all parties involved, according to Blay, who says that this is a sign of a changing relationship between the two countries. “For fifteen years, [Brazil’s] governments had a negative attitude towards Israel,” he said. “This new government has changed its position. The position became friendlier.”

Shelley echoed Blay’s sentiments, describing current relations between Brazil and Israel as “the best that I remember”.

Diplomatic relations between the two countries have been shaky in recent years. In August 2016, Israel appointed Dani Dayen, a businessman and politician who was a key leadership figure in some violent Israeli settlement movements in Palestinian territories. Brazil refused to accept Dayen’s nomination, fearing it could destabilize its consistent two-state approach to Israeli and Palestinian territories and would serve as a recognition of Israel’s sovereignty.

At the time, a spokesperson for the Israeli foreign ministry responded by calling Brazil a “diplomatic dwarf.”

While Brazil counts itself among the nations that played a key role in founding the Israeli state, it has also maintained consistent diplomatic and trade relations with Arab nations. But it has historically supported a two-state approach, participating in peace missions in Egypt and Lebanon in the effort to reduce tensions with the Israeli military in the region.

Certain decisions have made Brazil unpopular with Israel. It reaffirmed its recognition of Palestine as a state as recently as 2010, and supported a UN resolution between 1975 and 1991 that designated Zionism as racism. Additionally, it has attempted to interact with countries that Israel labels enemies – such as recent attempts to mediate talks between Turkey and Iran on a nuclear power plant program.

However, trade deals have remained largely unaffected by diplomatic tiffs: bilateral trade surpassed 1 billion USD in the years running up to 2016, boosted by Israel’s standing as the only country outside of South America to enjoy free trade deals with Mercosur.

Nor have geopolitical disputes hindered relations significantly in the past. Despite recognizing the Palestinian state in 2010, Lula visited Israel in the same year, becoming the first Brazilian head of state to do so. Meanwhile, Brazilian imports of Israeli aviation components and Israel’s imports of Brazilian foods have remained strong throughout hiccups – so much so that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may visit Brazil this June.

According to Santoro, Brazil’s powerful – and growing – evangelical caucus could be a factor in how relations between the two countries have eased in recent years.

“Brazilian evangelical politicians have sought out closeness with Israel,” UERJ’s Santoro explained. “Many of them take trips to Israel and are photographed bathing in the River Jordan, visiting Jerusalem. This is an important element, in the way that this religious group thinks about international relations in Brazil.”

“This could even have an impact on Brazilian diplomacy. This group is getting stronger, and so they are seeking more control with policy,” Santoro continued. “They could end up bringing Brazil’s foreign policy closer to Israel, and further away from Arab countries.”

This article, written by Ciara Long was originally published by The Brazilian Report and is available here.

Ramaphosa, the ANC, and the oppositions’ track record make it seem likely that the status quo will continue. Presumably, inter-party feuds are far from resolved with Zuma’s departure, and in these fights, the South African people stand to lose the most.

BY: KATIE DOBOSZ KENNEY

On February 15th, 2018, Jacob Zuma resigned from the office of president effective immediately, a position he has held since 2009. Over the past year, Zuma’s approval rating sank to an all-time low of 18%– he faced increased scrutiny by opposition parties for corruption, and barely survived a vote of no confidence in August 2017. His resignation came at the urging of his party, the African National Congress, to step down. The following day, Cyril Ramaphosa was elected by parliament to serve as interim president until the 2019 elections. The change in power was greeted by celebration from the ANC and cautious optimism from opposition parties eager to remove Zuma from power.

Effectively combating systemic corruption has been a failure of the South African government for years. Even out of office, Zuma still faces close to 800 charges of corruption, and as recently as last week, the government went after Zuma’s affiliates, including the Gupta business family for their long suspected influence over government contracts and political appointments. Widespread civilian discontent of government corruption has boiled over into protests over the last two years, including the clothing and textile labor unions and university students in the Fees Must Fallmovement. South Africa remains one of the most economically unequal nations in the world while over 7 million of its citizens are HIV positive. President Ramaphosa promises to end the era of state capture and to work with opposition leaders for the good of the South African people. But will we see much of the same corruption and in-fighting even with new leadership? Ramaphosa, the ANC, and the oppositions’ track record make it seem likely that the status quo will continue.

The deputy president since 2014, Cyril Ramaphosa was a devout labor unionist in the anti-Apartheid movement and founder of the National Union of Mineworkers in 1982. After being passed over for the position of deputy under Nelson Mandela, Ramaphosa became involved with the Black Economic Empowerment program, from which he benefited greatly. His net worth is now approximately $700 million; but it is wealth generated through his firm and Shanduka’s questionable investment in union-active industries like mining. At best, Ramaphosa’s corruption is limited to profiting from this conflict of interest. At worst, it implicates him in the murder of 34 miners during protests against the NUM’s perceived support of mine owners over laborers. Despite charges linking him to the incident being dropped, many still suspect his guilt, including opposition leader Julius Malema, with whom Ramaphosa is now supposedly dedicated to working with.

Julius Malema founded the Economic Freedom Fighters in 2013 after being ousted from the ANC for his incendiary personality and divisive viewpoints. Malema espouses a racially-leaning populist agenda, including nationalizing the mining industry. He was found guilty of hate speech against white South Africans in 2011 and charged for inciting violence in 2017 for encouraging black South Africans to take over unoccupied land. Though his fervor and personal mission to remove Zuma from power has gained Malema popularity, the EFF only earned 8% of the vote in the last election.

The largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has unfortunately functioned almost exclusively as a watchdog to the ANC’s political and financial corruption, a position to which they will hold steadfast even under Ramaphosa, according to party leader, Mmusi Maimane. Seen historically as the party of white South Africans, the DA has struggled to gain widespread support of the majority black population – a perception emboldened by the fact that it took until 2015 for the DA to elect its first black leader.

Presumably, inter-party feuds are far from resolved with Zuma’s departure, and in these fights, the South African people stand to lose the most. Unemployment consistently reported at around 27%, but when speaking with citizens of Kliptown and Soweto in June 2017, historically two of the poorest neighborhoods in South Africa, they expressed that many South Africans believe the rate to be much higher.

Additionally, Cape Town is about to become the first modern city to completely run out its water supply. The countdown to “Day Zero” or the day the city will officially run out of water is likely to occur sometime between April and June of 2018. Severe austerity measures are currently in place, limiting residents to approximately 6.5 gallons of water per day for everything from bathing to cooking.

Nelson Mandela would likely not recognize this South Africa from the one he liberated in 1994, and the citizens’ blatant cries for the South Africa of Madiba seem to have fallen on deaf ears. May the end of Jacob Zuma’s reign be the first step toward healing and a word of warning to Ramaphosa and his contemporaries who choose to neglect the will and well-being of South Africa.

Katie Dobosz Kenney holds an MS in Global Affairs from New York University with a concentration in Peacebuilding. An educator for almost 10 years, Katie had developed global and peace education curricula in Florida, Mississippi, and Timor-Leste. Katie currently works as a graduate program administrator at NYU’s Center for Global Affairs and has co-lead study abroad programs to South Africa and the UAE. 

This article was originally published by Political Insight and is available Here.

 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the global stage as a phenomenon that gripped India with approval ratings that have surpassed most Indian and international political figures. The rhetoric and ideology he espouses, however, pose a much more profound threat to the very democracy they pledge to protect.

BY: ANDREA GARCIA RODRIGUEZ

The 2014 Indian elections are already a reference point in the marketing world for the remarkable materialization of Narendra Modi as a brand. As David Aaker explains, the recipe had three main ingredients: making a regional brand national, cleaning the dirty past and connecting with urban and young voters, for in 2014, 150 million Indian people would have voted for the first time. These three lines were supported by extensive literature and propaganda, even featuring comic books where guided by a heroic behavior, a young Modi would save animals, pray in the temple or would prepare Ayurvedic medicine for his mother.

His many successes as the Chief Minister of Gujarat gave him the necessary political prestige. Touted as a good administrator with vivid ideas on development and economic growth, he won his nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the majority in the lower chamber of Parliament; a feat that has not happened in 30 years. Almost four years have passed since, and Narendra Modi continues to be the most popular Indian leader, with 88% on average favoring him, exceeding 90% in the Southern statesand even in Punjab, where the majority of the population profess the Sikh faith.

Data from the Pew Research Centre and the World Economic Forum revealed that only a year after the 2014 election most of the country believed India was on the right track, a still-present upward trend, versus the 29% existing in the pre-Modi era. Before Modi took office, India’s political scene was a sum of the Congress Party, the left who sought to represent the impoverished segments of society, and the BJP, apostles of Hindutva. The vacuum of power generated by the declining morale and appeal of the Congress Party amid the corruption scandals was the perfect breeding ground for the BJP victory in 2014; a party that rules in 19 out of 29 states after the Gujarat elections of December 2017.

The BJP has always criticized the secular policies of the Congress Party, advocating for the establishment and recognition of the Hindu culture for India. Accordingly, one of the landmarks for the party was in 1992 when the demolition of the Mosque of Bābur, where the concept of cultural nationalism overtook the ideological nationalism. The fall of the Babri Mosque, which was located in an area considered sacred by Hinduism, was the culmination of the Ram Janabhoomi (literally translating to Ram’s birthplace) movement with many BJP leaders at its helm. Albeit the party, due to criticism, later conceived Hindutva as a renaissance – abstract, engaging, to be developed organically – and less as a goal to be achieved by active means, the fall of the mosque marked a decisive shift towards identity politics. Since then, the lack of a serious condemnation of violence towards minorities by PM Modi was even noticed by then-President Barack Obama in 2015, who condemned the persecution of people “for their beliefs and heritage” in recent times. Modi, whose unapologetic attitude towards the 2002 Gujarat riots that saw the death of thousands, resulted in him being denied entry into the United States.

The vision that Narendra Modi has for the domestic India is complemented by international projections of power. He sees the military as a way to modernize and strengthen the country, as well as a  strategy to counterbalance the growing presence of China in the region, directly affecting the country by its northern border. Since Modi took power, military expenditure has expanded by an average of 10% per year, recently making India the 5th country in the world with the highest investment in the military. This trend breaks with that of the previous administrations that increasingly cut the budget allocated to this sector.

Moreover, the Prime Minister has also become the champion of the fight against corruption. The demonetization strategy of November 2016 left the 86% of the circulating banknotes useless overnight when all 500 and 1000-rupee bank notes were declared null. This measure sought to eliminate fake currency and force people to pay taxes, as well as a transition to digital money – though the latter was more of an organic reaction to the measure than one of the stated objectives. While some hailed demonetization as a genius move, others have pointed out its crippling effects on the lower classes. The impact of such policy continued to remain high as India still remains a cash-based economy. However, Modi’s brand of success masks the threat his rhetoric poses to the very foundations of democracy.

One can be a great manager, a superb speaker and a devoted Democrat. However, democracy implies the respect, recognition and admiration of the role of the opposition. “Congress-Mukt Bharat” is the slogan Modi used in the 2014 elections to attack India’s Congress Party and that has been recently revitalized by the BJP leader. Modi defends himself by labelling “Congress” as synonymous with a culture of corruption, of treachery and of casteism that seeks to keep complete control over power. His claim has been identified as a general call to end the Congress Party by its explicit reference and impossible-to-miss background of use. To define the opposition as dissidence, in the words of former Czech President Václav Havel, is the first step towards authoritarianism.

Were the BJP of Narendra Modi to obtain the majority in both chambers of the Indian parliament after the 2019 general elections, the new wave of nationalism could endanger the quality of Indian democracy, statically rated as 77/100 by Freedom House every year for, at least, the past decade. Provided that this brand of Hindu nationalism gains enough support to continue its ride in front of the executive, the minorities would surely have a tough time ahead. Religious violence could increase being the ratification of the BJP’s initiatives shown in the chambers, and its ideas could expand to India’s area of influence, namely, Southeast Asia, especially in fellow Hindu countries such as Nepal. Multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multilingual India, should not compromise its values and consolidated Democracy for an ideology that aggrandizes one group over another, for nationalism, quoting Tom Nairm in 1977, is “the pathology of modern developmental societies […] a similar built-in capacity for descent into dementia”. Let India react and correct this drift before it is too late.

Andrea G. Rodriguez is an international security analyst. She holds a B.A. in International Relations from the Complutense University of Madrid. She has been part of several mobility programs, including at Charles University in Prague, where she studied Geopolitics and International Security, and at the National Taiwan University, where she focused on Asian security issues.

This article was originally published by Political Insight and is available Here.

 

Fleeing the economic collapse that has been destroying Venezuela since 2015, Esmeralda,
21, quit nursing school and left for Brazil with hopes of pursuing her education, finding a job, and providing for her family.

In her suitcase, Esmeralda packed her scrubs and books. Yet in Roraima,
Brazil’s northernmost state, her work uniform became something different altogether: a
short, tight dress and heels. Without many job opportunities, and facing discrimination from
Brazilian employers, Esmeralda is one of the hundreds of Venezuelan women who have been
pushed into sex work to make ends meet.

“My family doesn’t know I work like this, it would bring them shame. I didn’t study to have
this life,” she says, after hopping out of a client’s vehicle. Shame – and fear – are common
feelings among women like Esmeralda, especially when they have families waiting for them
in their home country. To avoid exposing her identity, Esmeralda chose not to disclose her
surname.

“I’m pregnant, and I don’t know what I’m going to do moving forward,” says Maria, a 36-yearold
former hairdresser who declines to give her last name. “[The baby is] my husband’s,” she
then explains, as if trying to set the record straight.

Maria has mailed food to her three kids, who are 14, 18, and 21 years old, and her husband,
all of whom are still living in Venezuela. She hasn’t told them how she earns the money to pay
for the goods she sends them. Some of Maria’s income still stems from her former trade: in
cities located on the outskirts of Boa Vista, she gives manicures and haircuts to her fellow
sex workers.

Since Venezuela’s economic collapse began in 2015, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan
migrants have crossed the Brazilian border. According to data from the International
Monetary Fund, Venezuela has the world’s worst economic growth. Inflation rates should
spiral to 13,000 percent this year, and its currency has lost 99 percent of its value since
2012. As Matt O’Brien wrote for The Independent in 2016: “Venezuela is the answer to what
would happen if an economically illiterate drug cartel took over a country.”
Despite the migration free-flow that has been occurring for more than two years, it is only
now that the Brazilian government has decided to act on the migration crisis in northern
Brazil. President Michel Temer recently declared a “state of social calamity” and will send
resources to help the state government deal with the situation. Justice Minister Raul
Jungmann announced that 200 military troops will act on the border “not to forbid their
entry in Brazil, but to give some order to this process.”

Risky bussiness

In 2017 alone, more than 70,000 Venezuelan nationals have passed through Roraima –
especially now that Colombia has imposed barriers at its border. Over the past 45 days,
18,000 Venezuelans have applied for a Brazilian visa.

Around 40,000 of these refugees have stayed in Boa Vista, the state capital. Roraima is
isolated from other states by vast stretches of treacherous rainforest. A plane ticket to São
Paulo, for instance, usually costs over 1,000 BRL – more than the country’s minimum wage.
The sheer lack of options forces many Venezuelans to settle in Boa Vista, and they now
amount to over ten percent of the city’s population.

But though it is a state capital, Boa Vista is by no means a dynamic urban center – and
employment is lacking, with formal opportunities scarcer than many other cities in
Brazil. Unemployment rates have surpassed 11 percent, the highest of the state’s history.
The few available jobs often impose degrading work conditions. Aware of the desperation of
migrants, many Brazilian employers offer salaries far below normal rates, and for long hours.
The same happens in the sex work industry.

Since the 1990s, when gold miners started to occupy the region, the Caimbé district has
gained notoriety for its brothels and street prostitution. But since 2015, those activities have
intensified. Previously, sexual services were sold in the Caimbé district of Boa Vista for an
average of 100 BRL – that is, until the arrival of the Spanish-speaking call girls.
As the numbers of foreign women working in the streets have surged, the average price has
fallen to 80 BRL – a number that has become these women’s nickname: the ochenta(eighty, in
Spanish). The epithet has turned into a song, Xote das Ochenta, a ballad about a mean-spirited
man bargaining to lower a Venezuelan sex worker’s rate.

But in addition to payment problems, the ochenta are often forced to deal with violence.
Several of them are controlled by pimps, who lurk around the women disguised as coffee or
chocolate vendors. Whenever a man enquires about rates, the pimps approach to sell a treat
– but they are actually controlling how much the woman is charging for her services. Last
year, three men were arrested by the Federal Police for pimping and extorting women.
Nor are the clients any less dangerous.

Back in December, a Venezuelan woman was raped, stabbed and abandoned in a roadway
outside of Boa Vista. Yet despite the severity of the attack, she survived – and told the police
that the man attacked her after she refused to have sexual relations without a condom. The
suspect was identified, but he has not been arrested.

To avoid a similar fate, other girls have a security system. Whenever one of them hops into
the car of a client, the others use a rock to write the car’s license plate on the wall. “If she’s
away for too long, we call the cops,” explains Maria.

For many of the ochentas, like Michele and Valencia, the daily routine starts as early as 7 a.m.
The two 20-year-old friends arrived in Boa Vista two weeks ago, from the Venezuelan city of
Maracay. Their clients start coming soon after, looking for sex before going off to work. They
come back during lunchtime, and then again from 5 p.m. until the early hours of the next day.
Michele, a former nurse, is nostalgic about her days in Venezuela. “I loved my work helping
women to give birth. I had always dreamt of being a nurse,” she said as she headed towards
her next client’s car.

 

This article, written by Eliane Rocha was originally published by The Brazilian Report and is available here.

With Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia’s elections set to take place in 2018, the South Caucasus could face some significant security risk. As changes in the U.S.-Russia and Europe-Russia relations continue to influence the region’s politics, the fragile state of the internal politics can leave a lasting impact on the stability of the region.

BY: ANI KARAPETYAN

The three countries of the South Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia – are set to have presidential elections in 2018 in the mentioned order. While Georgia is scheduled to have its elections in October of this year, Armenia and Azerbaijan are confirmed to have their presidential elections in March and April respectively, both of which will possibly have larger geopolitical implications than the Georgian elections.

The 2017 amendments in the Georgian constitution have shifted the country’s governing structure to a fully proportional system, not lacking in controversy; some even predict considerable shifts in the political landscape of the country. Georgia, however, unlike Armenia and Azerbaijan, is not involved in a regional inter-state conflict (the brief war with Russia in 2018 reached further than the borders of South Caucasus). Georgia’s presidential elections, therefore, although equally important for the country’s internal affairs, are less likely to have security-related consequences for the region.

Meanwhile, Armenia and Azerbaijan are parties to the unresolved conflict of more than three decadesDeadly clashes in the border between the disputed breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan occur frequently. Consequently, the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidential elections in the upcoming months can potentially influence the security of the region as prospects for peace remain fragile and commitment to democracy by both governments doubtful.

After the constitutional referendum in 2015, Armenia transitioned from a semi-presidential form of governance into a parliamentary republic. Opposing political figures, European observers and the public grew concerned with the results making serious allegations of fraud and vote rigging; the proponents of the “No” campaign soon formed public resistance. The constitutional referendum was largely seen as a means to extend the political power of the incumbent president Serj Sargsyan and his ruling Republican Party. Sargsyan’s second and last term ends in 2018, and he had to step down if not for the constitutional referendum results.

None of the reported irregularities and public outcry gained enough momentum to generate change or reverse the referendum results. The public movement soon died down after facing the ruling party’s usual and often violent crackdown on the critical members of the public and political opposition.

Based on procedures established in the aftermath of the constitutional referendum- on March 9, 2018, for the first time in the history of the Republic of Armenia the president will be elected by the Parliament and not by popular vote. The incumbent president has already nominated Armen Sarkissian, an independent politician and a former ambassador of Armenia to the UK, for the largely ceremonial role of the president. On February 16, 2018, Sarkissian accepted the nomination to be the Republican Party’s candidate and is projected to be the winner of the parliamentary vote.

In the upcoming Azerbaijani presidential elections on April 11, 2018, Ilham Aliyev is so far the only candidate. The incumbent president of Azerbaijan is projected to win his fourth term of presidency; Ilham Aliyev succeeded his father, Heydar Aliyev, in 2003 when he won the presidential elections by a landslide following his father’s death.

The Azerbaijani elections are less rich in context. Besides Aliyev’s decree to move the election from October 17, 2018 to April 11, 2018, and the possibility of human rights violations that usually accompany the elections, the pre-election months have been uneventful.

It is apparent, in these contexts, that the South Caucasus’ politics do not happen in isolation. The region’s Soviet legacy has implied Russia’s interest in maintaining a strong presence in all three countries. Armenia, as a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union as well as the host of a Russian military base, has traditionally strong relations with Russia. The ties with the Europe are of considerable interest to Armenia as well, and the recent Association Agreement with the European Union serve as a testament to that.

Azerbaijan’s wealth in oil and natural gas has always been a concern for Russia and of significant interest to the U.S. and Europe. The West has often been criticized for ignoring the numerous human rights violations by the Azeri authorities for the sake of the country’s oil and gas exports; both EU and U.S. have interests in leveraging Azerbaijan’s exports of the natural resources to mitigate the dependence on Russia’s oil and natural gas.

Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan, on the other hand, are complex. Azerbaijan’s unique non-aligned status speaks to the fact that the two countries’ declarations of commitment to military and trade cooperation are fragile.

Armenian-Russian relations seem to have entered a rough patch in the recent years. Russia’s declining economic strength and Armenia’s reducing remittances coupled with Russia’s failure to act as a security guarantor in what came to be known as the four-day-war in April, 2016, have influenced the countries’ relations negatively.

With the latest regional and larger geopolitical developments, it is clear that the region of the South Caucasus is in the midst of a security crisis. Changes in Russia-U.S. and Europe-Russia relations have a track-record of influencing the regional politics. And the closely following presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan could potentially increase security risks. With Russia under pressure to rebalance its relations with Armenia alongside maintaining the traditional security role in the country and the desired influence in the region, the possibility for a peaceful 2018 is decreasing. Although elections in both Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to end in the leading political powers’ win, the fragile state of the internal politics of the countries can lead to developments that have the potential to leave a lasting impact on the stability of the region.

Ani Karapetyan holds a Master of Science degree in Global Affairs from New York University. She has received NYU provost’s Global Research Initiatives fellowship to analyze UN’s social and environmental accountability and has published Democracy and Civil Rights related articles.

This article was originally published by Political Insight and is available Here.

 

The Arctic region has been a source of concern in terms of climate change, resource abundance and the growing security concerns. Energy Analyst Jude Buenaseda takes a look at the growing competition in the region with Russia at the forefront and the role that the Arctic Council could play in navigating a plethora of issues. 

By: JUDE BUENASEDA

Climate change and the rapid and exponential melting of ice it has caused in the region has put the Arctic in the spotlight for individual states. Frozen pathways are now becoming accessible by ships, and possible new resource reserves and trade routes are on the horizon. The overarching effect has been that it has transformed the Arctic into a potential battleground between the various nations that are situated and operate within the Arctic. Everyone has their eye on this largely untouched territory. However, Russia’s activities and expanding influence in the region poses a threat to other Arctic nations. As a result, it has brought to light several unanswered questions specifically relating to the controls over natural resource exploration and production in the region. Arctic policies are hinged on multiple interlinked factors, which include climate change, resource security, land and food security.

With an estimated 90 billion barrels of oil, 48 tons of cubic meter gas and two trade routes connecting most of the continents in the Arctic, there is no question of the appeal of this region – and it is only a matter of time before nations take immediate action to start exploiting these resources. Approximately $17.3 trillion in resources remain up for grabs in the region. These new economic opportunities in the Arctic have given Russia enough reason to mobilize its military by building and re-opening naval bases, deploying icebreakers, and enduring harsh weather training. Canada and Denmark both have denied Russia’s claim of three ridges in the Arctic which is allegedly connected to the Russian continent. President Putin has since continued to expand his military and secure Russia’s interest in the region. In Russia’s federal program to boost tourism from 2019 to 2025, the Arctic is deemed a separate region in which it aims to bolster tourism. In the recent months, Russia has continued to build its military presence in the region, while Chinese  research icebreaker, the Xue Long made its first voyage through the Northwest Passage in October. Russia, on the other hand, has more than 40 icebreakers, including four operational heavy ones. Due to sanctions imposed by the United States amongst other political issues, Russia has even more incentives to push for further exploration of resources northward.

The formation of the Arctic Council in 1996 marked the beginning of a change in the politics of the Arctic region as a whole. The assembly is comprised of eight nations: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States. The council also has representation from six indigenous groups and as of recently, added six observer states that are affected by decisions made in this region: China, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. The council discusses all matters relating to the Arctic whether it is economics, habitats, or climate change. Disputes over boundaries have been ongoing between countries; but it is the decreasing landmass in the Arctic that has made it somewhat more difficult for the council to agree and decide each country’s land rights. Within the past weeks, a new agreement has been brought to the fore limiting trawling in the region to protect fish and their habitat. Despite its weak stance on climate change, the US did agree to focus on conservation efforts through this treaty.

The United States, as the current chair of the Council, could have used this as an opportunity to put Arctic policy at the forefront, but has been failing at doing so. Limited leadership in the Arctic by the United States has caused other states like Russia and Norway to rise to the challenge. At the same time, leadership is needed on matters beyond resource management and conservation. The Arctic Council has placed a significant amount of focus on the aspects of climate change and climate security that could be debilitating to the region. In their most recent report, the Arctic Monitoring Assessment Programme address the widespread impact of climate change on the region, which can jeopardize the physical and economic security of the Arctic along with many other regions in the world. The report calls for immediate action on carbon reduction to control the warming of the Arctic, listing the tremendous impact it can have on the community. Simultaneously, security-related uncertainty has increased in the region with Russia’s projects to develop a fully autonomous submarine to operate underwater in the Arctic, which some claim might be a smokescreen for the development of underwater military systems. Whether or not one factor takes precedence over the other is not the question at hand; it is apparent that the politics in the Arctic have the propensity to cause global upheaval. To have the Arctic reach its full potential, it will be essential to address all these issues in a joint and concerted manner, with the Arctic Council and its affiliates at the center.

 

 

 

Jude Buenaseda (Political Insight) is a Fellow at Advanced Energy Group and also works at the Austrian Mission to the United Nations. He is currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Energy. 

This article was originally published by Political Insight , and is available Here.

 

What’s going on in Syria? How long has the current President Bashar al-Asad been governing? Why is it credited with launching chemical weapons over the Shayrat region? How much support does Vladimir Putin give to his Syrian counterpart and what role does he play in the war? How long has the’ civil war’ been going on in the Arab country and what are its possible conclusions?

What’s going on in Syria?

Fifty-nine (59) Tomahawks missiles from the USS Porter and USS Ross naval destroyers from the Mediterranean Sea have been the response of the United States to the clear crime against humanity that occurred in the city of Homs, but less clearly the authorship or attribution (from my point of view).

The people of Syria have since 2011 immersed in what they call a” civil war”, which I call rather an intra-Islamic war. A war between the two main factions of the Islamist religion: the Sunni and Shia. The latter represented by the government, quantified in a population of 13% and the Sunnis (the majority) who represent 70% of the population adding the presence of 10% Christians.

President Bashar al-Asad is an alawist Shia faction, a people that has been repressed over time by the Sunni majority from Iraq, Lebanon, Iran to Syria. The Al-Asad family under the genesis of their father Hafez al-Asad, a soldier and politician trained in Soviet military academies over the past century, has held the country under the yoke of his rule since the 1970 under the leadership developed in the syrian armed forces.

Sarin Gas Attacks

Most Western countries like the United States attribute the Sarin gas attack a few days ago to Al-Asad’s regime and his army. I would like to point out that among all this jigsaw puzzle of interests there is the presence of the Jihadist group ISIS, better known in Spanish as the Islamic State or Daesh in arab language . The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is an armed group of radical Sunni belief specifically fundamentalist and takfirist characteristic. Sunnis and Shia have thrived since ancient times in an increasingly intense and gradual confrontation since the beginnings of Islam but the emergence of this type of extremist movement has in recent years created a joint struggle and thus seen as the vertex of support of both doctrines for their survival within their own lands.

The Role of Russia

Now let us see the role that Russia plays in all this success…..

Russia is the most important ally of the Bashar regime. The Kremlin brings its military, logistical, technical support and arms supply support to the government regime (exported as trade) in parallel with an alliance of countries of the European – North American – Arabian axis in the war against the Islamic State. Now, the most relevant question would be:

What does Russia get from this bilateral agreement beyond trade and/or export of needs for Syria?

The answer is: presence in the Mediterranean Sea with the administration and modernization of the Port of Tartus.

The port of Tartus means for Russia the most important presence in foreign waters within the Middle East since the time of the Soviet Union (USSR) in the 20 century. The relevance of the Port of Tartus means the most strategic maritime communication channel in the eastern hemisphere which helps the Russians to establish a route from Middle East to the Eurozone and North Africa with exit to the Atlantic Ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar.

If we look at it from a holistic patriotic point of view, Putin’s Russia has been in recent times reprojecting (the essence of the former USSR) a unification of its surrounding territories, two examples would quickly be the annexation of Crimea and Sebastopol to the Russian Federation accompanied in parallel by a greater geopolitical presence throughout the world.

Really, what is the long-term future of Syria?

It is 38 hours from the Syria West Coast in a southerly direction through Lebanon, Israel, Egypt to Libya.

We must support the diplomatic solutions, we like international comunnity should engage the different parts in Syria (civil sociaty , goverment and private sector) into the diplomatic negotiation process for conquer the peace that the country deserves

If occidental forces of North America, Europe and Russia continue to disrupt Syria’s internal conflicts and dialogue we’ll find a new Libya in Syria in a near future, a failed state absent of ethic and good management for legislative or executive powers, devastated since infrastructures until the soul of its citizens turning 38 hours into more than a decade of national suffering.

Moisés A. Cabrera

About the Author

Moisés A. Cabrera  is from Santiago Providence, Dominican Republic and  is an Electromechanical Engineer and a Foreign Policy Policy Blogger. He has a blog called PuntoReferendum focus on International Security and Defense.

Getting a Bachelor’s Degree in political science is a good investment in your future, as this is a versatile field with several possible career paths. Just make sure to choose your university wisely so that you do not go broke while studying.

Studying political science opens doors to many possible jobs, but it can also lead to mountains of debt. On average, obtaining a political science (also known as “poli-sci”) degree in the United States costs US$37,000-US$48,000 just in annual tuition alone. Added to that will be your living expenses and book costs.

In the UK, there are universities charging tuition fees that go up to £18,000 a year, which is close to US$24,000. This all might make you wonder if a political science degree is worth it.

Well, here’s a little secret: Yes, it’s worth it, but not all schools are created equal. Some universities definitely offer better value than others.

So what are these schools? And why should you study political science in the first place? In what fields are the job openings for political science majors?

Let’s find out.

The Basics of Studying Political Science

During political science studies, you will research and analyze fundamental issues affecting how the world works, such as international trade, government policies and laws, economics and globalization. Political science looks at every aspect that impacts the wellbeing of nations, such as the education and health care system, and the general employment situation. This is a superb degree for people who are curious about the world and current events.

Career Options and Salary Prospects

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a political scientist’s salary in the USA ranged from about US$47,000 to US$162,000 in 2015. This includes both entry-level political science jobs as well as posts that require a Master’s Degree.

Studying political science is a natural first step if you dream of going into politics. Entry-level jobs in the government include being a lobbyist assistant or a political campaign staff member, and then progressing onto a political campaign manager or a lobbyist. As per the BLS data, the 2016 median income of lobbyists was just over US$66,000.

Other possible jobs for political science majors right out of college include becoming a teacher, a journalist or a public relations specialist. Elementary school teachers earned a median salary of almost US$55,000 in 2015, according to the BLS. The salaries for journalists during that same year ranged from US$21,000 to US$81,000. Public relations specialists earned about US$57,000, on average.

Additional career options include going into business as poli-sci graduates often have great communication skills and a thorough understanding of economics. A legal career is also possible, though becoming a lawyer requires continuing on to law school.

Keep in mind that these salary figures are just rough estimates of what you can expect to earn with a political science degree. They also only refer to jobs in the USA, so salaries elsewhere may be lower or higher, depending on the country’s economy.

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Affordable Political Science Universities

While studying at a university is always a big financial investment, there are luckily lots of bargains out there when it comes to political science degrees. Here are our top picks.

1. San José State University 

This is a bustling institution of 30,000 students, located in the famous Silicon Valley in Northern California. San José State University (SJSU) was founded in 1857 and is ranked among the top 200 American universities. Considering these facts, SJSU’s political science program is a bargain at US$16,306 per year.

In addition to other topics, the major includes instruction in political philosophy and theory, political parties and interest groups, and the politics of different countries. This international approach makes SJSU a particularly good match for international students.

2. Western State Colorado University

Another solid US-based option is the Western State Colorado University (WSCU), located in the small town of Gunnison in Colorado. The school has about 2,500 students who represent 15 different countries.

There are four possible poli-sci Bachelor’s Degrees to pursue. There is a basic option called “Politics & Government,” but the most international option is a program called “Politics & Government: Global Studies.” This is ideal for students who are interested in human rights issues and the social movement of people. A year at WSCU comes with a price tag of US$18,096, meaning you pay about half of what you normally would for college in the US.

3. Carleton University

Affordable political science programs can also be found just north of the US border, in Canada. The political science degree of Carleton University costs CAD$24,000, which is roughly US$18,600. Carleton’s students have the added benefit of the university being located in Ottawa, Canada’s capital. This means students can get a close look at national and international politics.

The university’s political science program is very comprehensive. It includes researching international relations, transitions to democracy, globalization and the culture of politics. Carleton also has a bachelor’s program called Global Politics, which might be interesting to  students who are interested in working for the United Nations or international NGOs. It focuses on the politics of war and peace, ethnic conflicts and environmental issues.

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  4. Middlesex University

One way to save on tuition costs is to study on the old continent: the political science program at Middlesex University in north London costs just US$11,500 per year. The Times’ Good University Guide 2017 ranked Middlesex to be London’s top modern university. Boasting 145 different student nationalities, it’s also one of the most diverse institutions in the world.

The university’s poli-sci program focuses on the study of political institutions and philosophy, comparative government, public opinion and the politics of specific countries.

5. London South Bank University

If you really want to study political science in the heart of it all, the centrally located London South Bank University (LSBU) is your place. The tuition fees are slightly higher than those of Middlesex at £12,900, translating to about US$17,200. However, the Sunday Times League Table 2016 ranked LSBU the best modern university in London for its graduate career prospects and the highest graduate starting salaries.

LSBU offers a Bachelor’s Degree in politics, which examines the key political issues affecting today’s global community. The program combines political science and theory as well as international relations.

Get in touch with an education advisor to learn more about Political Science

About the Writer: Mirva Lempiäinen is a US-educated freelance journalist from Finland. After calling New York City home for about a decade, she now resides on the French-Caribbean island of Guadeloupe.