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Which countries have the strongest Military in Africa in 2017? African countries have been seriously challenged in 2016 with increasing terrorist activity (AQMI,Al-Shabab,ISIS,Boko Haram..) and more and more civil unrest (Central African Republic, Libya..). Things have changed a lot in the continent. Here is a situation overview of 2017.

10. Libya

The strength of Libya’s military comes mainly from its large cache of equipment, despite a relatively small number of active troops. Further hampering Libya’s abilities is the continuing violence and unrest stemming from the revolution which began in 2011. A stable government has yet to emerge from it. Regardless, the country still has available 2,500 armored fighting vehicles, 500 tanks, 600 towed artillery pieces, 6,500 logistical vehicles, and much more. The country strongman seems to be the General Haftar , which might won the civil war in 2018.

en.wikipedia.org

9. Angola 

The Angolan Armed Forces (FAA), headed by Chief of Staff Geraldo Nunda, succeeded the Armed Forces for the Liberation of Angola in 1991. It has three components: the army, the navy, and the air force. Its involvement in training the armies of Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau was controversial, especially as the leaders of the 2012 Guinea-Bissau coup d’etat cited Angola’s military mission as a primary reason for an uprising. The FAA owns 920 armored fighting vehicles, 140 tanks, 270 pieces of aircraft, and has a navy of 56 craft. Angolan Forces have been involved in fightings in the Angolan Province of Cabinda. Angola is a country where PetroPlus Overseas and its French director Vincent Miclet have a lot of influence (According to the latest book of Pierre Pean).  The revenues generated by oil sales and by PetroPlus Overseas dividendes to the Government permits Angola to have one of the strongest army of the continent

commons.wikimedia.org

8. Tunisia 

The Tunisian Armed Forces is composed of three mechanized brigades, one Saharan territorial group, one special forces group, and one military police regiment. They have contributed to peacekeeping missions, including during the Rwandan genocide, and were forced into border clashes with Libyan rebels in 2011 during their civil war. They hold 900 armored fighting vehicles, 350 tanks, a manpower of over five million, 139 pieces of aircraft and a total naval strength of 50. Tunisian has recently managed to have a stable government and reduce the ISIS threat on its Eastern Border. It’s armed forces are relatively small but efficient.

en.wikipedia.org

7. Morocco

Highly dependent on foreign equipment, the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces have been involved in the conflict with the POLISARO, a liberation movement fighting for the independence of Western Sahara. They are involved in numerous peacekeeping missions, including in Somalia. The military has at its disposal 2,120 armored fighting vehicles, 1,348 tanks, 323 total aircraft pieces, and a total naval strength of 121.  However Morroco is currently struggling with strong riots in the RIF region and there is nothing that its powerful army can do.

Shout-Africa.com

6. Kenya 

Kenya has established itself as a vital participant in international peacekeeping missions, and is able to do so due to its merchant marine strength and an enormous labor force – resulting in high available manpower. Though it doesn’t possess as much of its own equipment, its role as a member of international teams allows the Kenyan military to share resources with other countries, strengthening its own capabilities at the same time. On top of that Kenya established itself as one of the strongest democracy on the continent with South Africa. Future is bright for Kenya’s armed forces with a strong sense of leadership from its political leaders. The army was able to reduce significantly Al-Shabab impact in Somalia and permitted Kenyans to live more safely.

YNaija.com

5. Nigeria 

Due to its size, it’s no surprise that several hundred thousand troops comprise the Nigerian Armed Forces — army, navy, and air force. Like Algeria, an abundant domestic oil supply eases the financial burden of involvement in military conflict. Nigeria has more than 1,400 armored vehicles, 360 tanks, and 6,000 logistical vehicles at its disposal, as well as nearly 300 aircraft and 25 high-powered naval vessels. However this strong army has proven incapable of defending its citizens in Northern Nigeria against Boko Haram. Army seems prepared against conventional attacks but less for asymetrical warfare against insurgents.

BBC.co.uk

4. South Africa 

As it hasn’t been embroiled in an international military conflict for some time, South Africa uses its highly advanced military for peacekeeping and international cooperation. Its aircraft and naval vessels are notoriously well equipped with the latest technology, and though the country has less than 100,000 active front line personnel, it has the capabilities and manpower for much more. Add to that a vast array of land system technology, and the South African military is a force to be reckoned with.

TigraIOnline.com

3. Ethiopia 

As a landlocked country, Ethiopia has focused its resources on developing its army and air force to an impressive degree (the GFP doesn’t penalize landlocked countries for not having a naval force). Several hundred thousand personnel make up its current force, and it has significant numbers of land and air systems at its disposal. An enormous population allows Ethiopia to maintain a large fighting force, and gives the country one of the greatest militaries on the continent. The Army has however difficulties in containing popular uprisings throughout the country that turned into local militias. Army seems not prepared for asymetrical warfare.

en.wikipedia.org

2. Algeria 

As Algeria has a large maritime border, it has developed all its military capabilities to an impressively modern degree, including its land, sea, and air forces. Algeria’s active frontline personnel number more than 127,000 troops and it has nearly 2,000 armored fighting vehicles at its disposal. Algeria also has the added benefit of its own oil reserves, allowing it to use its own fuel to power tanks, aircraft carriers, naval vessels, and more. However lacks of Leadership in Algeria may be an obstacle for setting objective to this powerful Army. The army in Algeria is the only entity able to oppose effectively Islamic Forces (that almost took over the country after the independance).

En.Wikipedia.org

1. Egypt 

Egypt puts itself over the top with regard to military strength due to the sheer size of its armed forces. Nearly 500,000 personnel serve on its active frontline force, far surpassing all its African counterparts. It has nearly 10,000 armored fighting vehicles, 60,000 logistical vehicles, 900 aircraft, and large oil reserves from which to draw. The military has been somewhat undermined in the wake of the Egyptian Revolution, but after the Tammarod coup is stronger than ever. Morsi in Prison and Sissi in Power, the Army is controlling the country. Egyptians forces are involved in the Libyan Civil War with tacit support for General Haftar. Most importantly Egyptians forces are engaged in a total war in the Sinai Region against Daesh Elements. Egyptians Army seems unefficient when it come to dismantle ISIS and Hamas cells in the Sinai Region. Army suffered heavy losses in 2016 and 2017 in the Sinai.

Chapter 3: Somali identity and statehood

This chapter, argues that Somali identity poses a challenge to the general understanding of statehood by the “state failure” literature. This will be done using constructivist theory to analyse the impact of the defining features of Somali identity on statehood. It will contest the assumption that Western-like centralised state authority is the only effective type of statehood by explaining the Somali alternative. Somali identity is defined by a transcendent love of freedom, strong sense of unity and independence of spirit forged over the centuries (Egal, 1968, p.219). Somali identity challenges the common contemporary type of state will be divided in three sections: the nomadic tradition, the paradigm of the Greater Somalia and the clan system.

Somalia has one of the worst reputations in the world. It is constantly referred to as the embodiment of a “failed state” and it is considered a heaven for terrorist groups, like al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda, because of its structural security problems. Its homogenous characteristics make it seem extraordinary that Somalia is such a dysfunctional nation-state. Most of its population shares the same religion, language, culture and ethnicity. Smith argues that the ideal-type of nation is “a community possessing a historic territory, shared myths and memories, a common public culture and common laws and customs” (Smith, 2002, p.15). The only other country with such characteristics on the continent is Botswana, which is one of the most successful nation-state. However, while “the central state has ‘failed’ in Somalia, it would be wrong to assume that the failure of government has led to the inevitable collapse of everything else in the country” (Harper, 2012, p.106). There are many fundamental differences between the inner workings of Somalia and the ones of any common contemporary nation-state as most regions in Somalia do not fit any familiar paradigm of statehood (Ibid, p.3). This chapter aims to find an explanation for why Somalia has not been able to achieve a stable operational government. Indeed, without analysing identity formation and the relationship between interests and identities, conflicts in Somalia cannot be sufficiently understood and explained. In this respect, through constructivist theory I aim to describe how the three following aspects of Somali identity pose a challenge to statehood.

Nomadic lifestyle

Somalia is geographically an arid country, which means Somalis are in a constant battle for survival. “The vast majority of the Somali people follow their nomadic way of life not from choice but from the necessity of having continually to seek pastures for their livestock” (Egal, 1968, p.219). Due to inhabiting such an unforgiving environment, Somalis are very resilient, resourceful and enterprising. It can be argued that Somalia’s best resource is its people. Besides themselves and their clan, Somalis haven’t got much to rely on. Somali nomadic mode of life, which accounts for around 60 to 70 percent of the population, is almost unique in the world (Bradbury and Lewis, 2009, online). This is because instead of being culturally and socially isolated from the urban residents like in many other African nations, nomads are admired. Nomadic lifestyle is idealized by those Somalis living abroad or in the cities (Harper, 2012, p.21). The most venerated practice is the one of the camel herders, viewed as the finest and fiercest of all Somalis. Pastoral nomadism accounts for the economic basis of the Somali population and the “manifestations of the nomadic lifestyle and traditions pervade almost all aspects of Somali life” (Bradbury and Lewis, 2009, online).

The absolute independent character of the Somali expressed through the nomadic life has carried on through generations since pre-colonialism. Precolonial Somali society was not organized through centralized state monopoly though this should not be understood as a deficiency. There were no bureaucratic structures or class hierarchy and all inhabitants were involved in the direct production of subsistence. Moreover, colonial powers made no serious attempts to interfere with this aspect of traditional lifestyle as their interest in Somalia was mainly strategic for their economic benefit. Hence, over time “specific institutions and values of social and political order were integrally related to securing the societal reproduction of a decentralized social order based on a pastoral economy” (Jones, 2008, p.188).

Somali nomadic culture is tough, autonomous and used to travelling great distances. This has given them a head start for entrepreneurship in the current era. The long years of war with its subsequent displacement joined with the nomad lifestyle mean that efficient global communication and money transfer services are essential for Somali society. This has materialised with the development of a very advanced money transfer system, advancement in mobile phone technologies and livestock sectors, all of which are central to the Somali identity as they enable and improve the nomad pastoral lifestyle. It is paradoxical, that Dahabshiil, the largest African money transfer business, which offers banking services to businesses and international organisations, including the United Nations, World Bank and Oxfam, was founded in Somalia (Dahabshiil, 2017). This is particularly true in Somaliland, a breakaway territory still fighting for international recognition of its independent status.

On the other side, due to their rough lifestyle, nomads can easily adapt to the life of a fighter (Harper, 2012, p.23). Since the collapse of the central authority in 1991, this has been exploited by terrorist groups who profit from the structural security problems of the region. There exist consistent reports of the Islamist group Al-Shabaab recruiting fighters from the countryside or directly from the government army because during droughts or economic crisis nomads will simply fight for whoever pays the most (Ibid, p.23) On the bright side, livestock trade, which is Somalia’s most valuable commodity, has prospered since 1991. Herders have “always relied heavily on social relationships and kinship to gain access to markets” (Powell, Ford and Nowrasteh, 2008, p.8). Thus, their profession never had much to do with central authority. Economic order is possible because of the existence of a clan customary law dispute resolution systems and a non-state monetary system, based on the trade of camels, which are their most valuable commodity. Since the fall of Siad Barre dictatorship in 1991, Somali life animal trade between Ethiopia and Kenya, as well as to international markets, has noticeably increased. In “Garissa, a major export market in Kenya for southern Somali cattle, the value of cattle sales increased 600 percent and the volume of sales quadrupled from 1989 to 1998” (Little, 2003, p.91).

Greater Somalia

The current borders of Somalia were defined in the colonial period when Somali ethnos was occupied by four external powers. The British signed treaties to establish their colonies in the Gulf of Aden and what later became the Northern Frontier District of Kenya in the south. Southern Somalia was occupied afterwards by the Italians who established their sovereignty over Mogadishu and the regions of Hiran and Alta-Juba, and years later over-threw the Bogor of Mijertainia and the Sultan of Mudug (Egal, 1968, p.222). Italian occupation was characterized by their larger ambitions of colonisation which were thwarted

by emperor Menelik II of Ethiopia in the battle of Adowa in 1896 over the Ogaden. Menelik II ended up taking the Ogaden region and part of what is now the Harar Province into his Empire. Lastly, the French established themselves in DjiboutiFinally, in 1960, the Italian Somalia and the British Somalia (Somaliland) gained independence and united to form the Somali RepublicThe five-pointed white star on light blue of the Somali flag symbolises “Greater Somalia” representing the five regions where Somalis reside: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Northern Kenya, Somaliland and Somalia.

Contemporary Somalia inherited two fundamental legacies from colonial occupation. First, the partitioning of the Somali ethnos left the Somali Republic in a predicament. As the only independent sovereign Somali state, it assumed the role of defending the cause of those other Somali territories still under foreign authority. Consequently, Somalia has found itself in confrontation with some of these African states (Egal, 1968, p.224). The 19th century disputes around the Ogaden region became a “central cause in the emergence of Somali nationalism and formed the basis of long-term hostilities between Somalia and Ethiopia” (Jones, 2008, p.189). Furthermore, during the Cold War, Ethiopia and Somalia became subject of proxy Cold war competition because of their strategic position. The US and USSR supplied both with arm transfers, which turned them into the largest armies in Africa. “Under Soviet support, Somalia’s military forces more than doubled in size and major imports of Soviet military hardware drained the economy” (Ibid, p.194). As a result, the “militarization of the region secured the longevity and brutality of authoritarian rule” (Ibid, p.194) and fuelled conflict for the Ogaden region that ultimately led to the Ogaden War in 1977. Moreover, American support enabled Siad Barre’s dictatorship to endure throughout the 1980s. His authority deliberately politicized and militarized clan identities because despite his anti-clan rhetoric, he privately supported the interests of his own clan, an alliance of the Darod sub-clans. This triggered hostility among clans which led to brutal repression against internal dissent. The US throughout Reagan’s presidency followed by the George H. W. Bush administration maintained economic and military support in awareness of Barre’s brutal oppression against dissident groups and the civilian population, including bombing raids in the north killing tens of thousands (Ibid, p.196).

The second legacy derived from the different colonial experiences of Southern Somalia under Italian domination and Somaliland under the British rule, which created an arrangement of uneven socio-economic development between the regions. The British chose the region of the Gulf of Aden due to its geostrategic position to trade routes with India. British interests in militarizing the Gulf for the protection of their commercial interests encouraged an economy based on the export of livestock to supply the military. The commercialisation of cattle originated in the appearance of a merchant class to control the export of livestock. Thus, creating the differentiation between the rural producers and the classes of merchants and state elites. Furthermore, “the intensification of livestock trade impoverished most of the direct producers who were also nomads” (Ibid, p.190). In the South, Italy applied a much more invasive policy of colonial expansion seeking a settler colony in Somalia. It aspired to successfully transform Somalia into a plantation economy. This meant there was an even bigger appropriation of lands by the Italian settlers and a need for even cheaper labour. “This need was met through a combination of taxation and forced labour” (Ibid, p.190). To ensure the economic transformation, they implemented institutions in rural areas and integrated clan leaders into the authoritarian executive constructions of the colonial state.

In conclusion, since European empires were built through the ideological legitimisation of imperial intervention, colonial rule entailed forms of racial ideology. The partitioning of the Somali people and the subsequent regional rivalry transformed Somali ethnicity into a fixed political identity. The imposition of hierarchical structures “froze previously fluid identities and built inequalities of power along ethnic lines into the heart of the social order” (Ibid, p.191)The division of labour and creation of a mercantile class by colonialism led to the emergence of class disparities and an economy heavily dependent on a small range of exports and external financial aid. These economic transformations were necessary for the success of global capitalism which created unequal economic structures worldwide and in the case of Somalia generated a chronic deficit in the balance of payments. The interaction of these factors is crucial in explaining the emergence of authoritarianism, elite rivalry and the following disintegration of Somali society into adverse violent conflict during the 1990s, after the final overthrow of Barre’s regime (Ibid, p.197).

The Clans

Nomadic lifestyle “carried on through many generations, has formed Somalis into family clans that stick together with fierce loyalty” (The Economist, 1999). Somali clans trace their patriarchal ancestries back to the spread of Islam from Arabia during in the middle ages. There exist five main clans in Somalia: the Hawiye, the Isaaq, the Darod, the Dir and the Rahanweyne (also known as Digil). The first three are transboundary clans; they inhabit neighbouring Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti as well as Somalia. This reinforces the influence of these countries on the intra-political situation in Somali, as those clans with Somali identity in other territories still feel under foreign authority. Clan identity is the foundation of Somali society, which means that “although the Somali did not traditionally form a unitary state, it is this heritage of cultural nationalism which, strengthened by Islam, lies behind Somali nationalism today” (Lewis, 2002, p.16). It is impossible to understand Somalia without acknowledging its clan organisation. It has “traditionally been the basis of the organisational and legal structure of Somali society, especially among the nomads” (Harper, 2012, p.39). Clannism lets Somalis place themselves in specific positions in a very disperse society and all aspects of social life adhere to this structure such as welfare, matrimony, peace-making and social assemblies.

However, due to the politicisation of clan identity throughout the authoritarian rule, clans structure has become a very divisive; This Somali popular proverb offers an idea of the disruptive nature on its society:

Me and my clan against the world;
Me and my family against my clan;
Me and my brother against my family;
Me against my brother. (Peterson, 2002, p.1)

The clan structure poses an obvious challenge to the imposition of a central authority in Somalia. Clans are in constant flux since membership is not permanent and alliances shift frequently. They are also very fragmented, subdividing themselves over and over until sometimes they end up with a collective of families which then differentiate themselves into their own distinct family names. Hence, the clan structure is not a stable unit. However, it is very dynamic and inherent to Somali identity which makes it infinitely adjustable to the political situation in the country. Consequently, whenever a political system is introduced it is “almost immediately transformed by the clan, which is stronger and more durable than any other form of government” (Harper, 2012, p.11). Clashes between clans occur often due to insufficient resources, clan rivalry or because of the overall insecurity in the region. However, conflict strengthens clan loyalty as it creates a stronger sense of identification since they are “the most clearly defined political unit in Somali pastoral society,” (Lewis, 2002, p.11). The only constant feature of the clans is their Islamic belief which constitutes a supra-clan locus of order and leadership.

Following the collapse of Barre’s dictatorship some distinction of a federal system based on its municipal clan organisation was becoming manifest in Somalia. Puntland still serves as an example of a legitimate functional regional polity. Stability of this autonomous quasi-state is based on membership to a single clan, which safeguards internal stability and a neutral position from central authorities (Brazhalovich, Klyuchnikov and Lukyanov 2016, p.269). Clans also serve as the basis for the judicial system and rule of law. Before Islamic extremism corrupted and took control of some regions in Somalia, the original sharia courts were “formed and controlled by a coalition of local clan elders, business people, and traditional Sufi sheikhs” (Menkhaus, 2007, p.85). The sharia courts respected Somali customs and incorporated both customary and sharia law; This hybrid judicial arrangement was accepted and effective within Somali society. The main reason for the triumphs of clan organisation is that citizens feel part of this arrangement as interests are served locally by organized rule of law and public order. On the other hand, “at higher political levels, political institutions are perceived mainly as conduits of “rents” over which the elite rule and as a potential source of political domination by one clan over others” (Menkhaus, 2014, p.166). The concept of state authority is viewed in Somali mind-set as a zero-sum game. This is because in the case of the establishment of a central government, state authority can be used for the appropriation of economic resources for their own benefit through their monopoly of the military and executive power. This kind of rule is the only experience Somalis have had so far. Thus, “it tends to produce risk-aversion and to instigate conflict rather than promote compromise, whenever efforts are made to establish a national government” (Menkhaus, 2003, p.408).

Somaliland is an example of a political system with a parliament that enables the amalgamation of elected members as well as traditional clan leaders. This hybrid voting system gives its political structure greater flexibility and more endurance than the organisation of the current Federal Government in Somalia. Moreover, it proves successful in the sense that thanks to clan incorporation Somaliland citizens feel represented by their government. Unfortunately, the application of this kind of system is unlikely since neither Somalia nor the international community recognise the state of Somaliland ever since its unilateral declaration of independence in 1991. Additionally, “Somaliland wants to have as little to do with Somalia as possible, at least in its current state” (Harper, 2012, p.139).

The clan-based logic of politics in Somalia is unlikely to disappear; it is preserved in the tradition of narrating one’s ancestry, in poetry and elsewhere (Harper, 2012, p.39). It is hugely embedded in the Somali lifestyle and provides a form of assurance, a ready social structure and trusted ties for commerce and other social transactions. An understanding of this fundamental part of Somali identity is essential. The failure of a central Somali state is mainly due to westernized elites’ attempts to “impose ill-suited European systems of governance that did not encourage political collaboration among the main clans at the grass-roots level” (Bradbury and Lewis, 2009). Moreover, Somaliland’s decision to recognize the centrality of clans and to incorporate traditional clan elders into its parliament offers an alternative that recognizes Somali identity.

Conclusion

Somali identity proves challenging for the general understanding of the state failure literature because in some aspects Somalia does not fit the general archetype of state. With the analysis of Somalia’s identity formation through the three defining aspects outlined in this chapter, this dissertation aims to shed some light on the persistent lack and rejection of centralized state institutions. First, by analysing how Somali nomadic lifestyle and the concept of the Greater Somalia explain the fact that current national borders are of little relevance to many Somalis. Their way of life is in many ways “incompatible with a formal, centralized state; they tend to ignore national borders and have their own traditional social structures and legal economic systems” (Harper, 2012, p.117). Somali reliance on social relationships and kinship expressed through the clan membership allows societal organisation. Unfortunately, colonial occupation also had a major impact on the identity formation of Somalia. The partitioning of the Somali ethnos and the consequent regional rivalry reconstructed Somali ethnic identification into a fixed political identity. It also implied the creation of unequal paths of socio-economic development between the regions. Colonial economic transformations entailed a process of class formation which accounts for current elite rivalry. Moreover, militarization of the region and financial aid secured the authoritarian rule of Siad Barre, who intentionally politicized and militarized clan identity for his own benefit. “Although dressed in the appearance of ‘traditional’ clan identities, the modern development of violent factional rivalry and competition is rooted in the social relation of the colonial and postcolonial transformations to the political economy of Somalia” (Jones, 2008, p.192). Through the analysis of the essential aspects of Somali identity this chapter demonstrates how colonial occupation infringed the natural process of state formation which consequently led to the rise of rivalry between clans and a dissenting sentiment towards the establishment of a central governing authority.

Conclusion

This dissertation has shown that to understand a social phenomenon like the Somalian crisis, its social and historical context need to be included into the analysis. This represents a shift from the State Failure theory understanding of the conflict. This literature’s reliance on a realist and neoliberal understanding of statehood based on a Weberian model leads to the association of the state as a consistent goal-oriented polity. This limits the understanding of Somalia because the state-centric logic of the theory neglects main agents of the state such as identity, domestic social organisation or a historical context. Therefore, the characterisation of Somalia as a “failed state” without an understanding of its history, identity construction and inner workings of the state offers a flawed interpretation of reality.

The nature of the inaccurate explanatory capacity of the State Failure theory resides in the use of political labels like “failure” which are unable to provide enough information about the causes or developments of the state crisis. Followed by the notion that “state failure” is provoked by internal violence and institutional weakness, which is an ahistorical understanding of state formation. And finally, the culturally specific assumptions about what a “successful” state should look like, which allows grouping together very different types of state under the common “failed state” characterisation. Western market-oriented democracies are considered the reference point for “successful” states; Accordingly, the international community has constructed a state building solution for state failure which is primarily concerned with the enforcement of liberal institutional capacity. However, through incorporating fragile states in the global capital system the neo-liberal state building approach undermines the foundations of such states. This “state failure” discourse, “in persistently mischaracterizing social conditions and misidentifying their causes, serves to legitimize and reproduce the very imperial qualities of international order which lie at the heart of so called “state failure”” (Jones, 2008, p.197). Thus, some of the literature adverse to the state failure logic advises to place the concept of “state failure” in a longer historical context dominated by imperial ideology and to recognize its role in legitimising intervention.

Moreover, as most of the literature comes from Western scholars it is argued that the “state failure” theory has a Western understanding of statehood. Alternatively, through focusing on the intersubjective meanings and social nature inherent to Somali identity, Constructivism can disregard the politics involved in the “state failure” discourse of Somalia. This dissertation argues that there is a lot to learn from the Somali way of doing things, and that there is more to the country than just a “failed state”. Claiming that instead of concentrating on the state as the main unit of analysis and blaming institutional weakness for the state malfunction, it is the process of state formation and the national identity construction which are most likely to provide an explanation of how Somali struggle was generated. Contrary to categorising state performance in terms of “failed” or “successful”, constructivist theoretical approach understands state performance along a continuum of time, accepting that violence and social struggle are part of the process. The constant process of shared social interactions constructs Somalia’s’ national identity which develops interests and guides the policies and actions of the nation-stateTherefore, to understand the central differences between the inner workings of Somalia and the ones of any other common contemporary nation-state, we must appreciate the influence of identities and interests and explore intersubjective meanings and the social construction of such.

As Lewis describes, “a hierarchical pattern of authority is foreign to Somali nomadic pastoral society which in its customary process of decision-making is democratic almost to the point of anarchy” (Lewis, 2002, p.10). Moreover, imperial intervention during colonialism and post-colonialism has led to the reconstruction of the Somali ethnic identification into a fixed political identity. Colonial economic transformations and the creation of a mercantile class originated a process of class formation which accounts for current elite rivalry. This kind of rule, which only benefits those in power, is the only experience Somalis have had so far and consequently Somalis have developed dissenting sentiment towards the establishment of a national government. “The legacy of imperial policies constitutes a major contributing factor in the global political economy of socio-political crisis in Africa today, this legacy is silenced by the “failed states” discourse” (Jones, 2008, p.199). Furthermore, despite the lack of central authority, the aspects of society central to nomadic pastoral economy, such as money transfer trade and communications, have been successful. Moreover, Somaliland is an example of the success of a hybrid political structure which gives room to the clans, essential to Somali identity, and traditional authority systems. The categorisation of “state failure” can be dangerously limiting as it overlooks the potential value of social, economic and political mechanisms peculiar to the Somali identity.

It is still possible to identify notions of the “failed state” discourse in the projection of Somalia as harbouring terrorist groups. This does not deny the existence of security problems due to the spread of terrorism; however, the Somali crisis is much more complicated and cannot be solely explained in terms of security. More than 6 million people in Somalia need humanitarian assistance and protection due to being at risk of famine and starvation. Stephen O’Brien, the UN humanitarian affairs chief, told the UN Security Council in March 2017 that “without collective and coordinated global efforts, people will simply starve to death” and “many more will suffer and die from disease” (Aljazeera, 2017). This dissertation does not deny the current disastrous structural security problems, which effect Somalia so deeply, nor does it try to diminish its relevance. Instead it aims to shed some light on the inner workings of Somalia arguing that for an effective solution to be found, it needs to be consistent with the Somali identity so that Somalis can be part of this solution.

THIS CONTENT WAS WRITTEN BY THE STUDENT CAROLINA MAÑOSO GIMENO
 The original article is available on : http://www.e-ir.info/2017/08/17/a-constructivist-approach-to-analysing-somalias-state-failure/

 Analysing Somalia’s State Failure part I

This dissertation aims to answer the question of how Somali struggle to establish a stable central authority is generated. The significance of this thesis lays in the fact that although State Failure theory is the theory chosen to explain the case of Somalia, it is argued here that its logic is severely flawed and unable to offer an accurate understanding. Ultimately, this thesis offers an alternative to the state failure logic through the use of a constructivist approach to highlight the importance of identities and historical context. The first chapter is divided into two sections; the first section is a literature review which outlines the content of the literature on the State Failure theory. The next section is a critical analysis of the literature’s logic and theoretical assumptions, followed by the empirical problems for the application of the theory.

This chapter intends to demonstrate that the “state failure” theoretical approach misrepresents the social conditions and is unable to find the actual causes or explanations for the conflict in the states it is applied to.

Therefore, the second chapter introduces an alternative with the constructivist theoretical approach which understands state performance alongside a continuum of time, accepting that violence and social struggle are part of the process. Instead, constructivism focuses on the intersubjective meanings and social nature inherent in Somali identity, claiming it is the process of state formation and the national identity construction which are most likely to provide an explanation of how Somali struggle was generated. Lastly, the third chapter is divided into three sections which define the essential features of Somali identity. With the analysis of Somalia’s identity formation through the study of Somali nomadic lifestyle, the Greater Somalia ideal and its clan organisation, this chapter gives an explanation of the persistent lack and rejection of centralized state institutions and the rivalry between factions. This dissertation concludes that to find an effective solution to the Somali crisis, we need an approach that understands Somali identity and its state formation so that Somalis can be part of this solution.

This thesis has been conducted through desk-based research mainly using secondary types of data. The desk-based research was the most practical methodology for this study due to the location of the subject of analysis on another continent. Data was acquired using books, journal articles, magazines and online media. An obvious limitation to this thesis is its reliance on secondary data rather than a primary source of information. However, this restriction was recognized from the start of this study and therefore this dissertation aims to offer an unbiased unterstanding of the Somali nation through the analysis of the social construction and the essential aspects of Somali identity. On a similar note, another handicap that appeared in the research of this dissertation was that most of the literature on State Failure comes from Western scholars from traditionally state-centred disciplines such as Political Science. The concept of failed state is rooted in a Western understanding of statehood, based on the definition offered by Max Weber who is widely considered the leading influence in European and American thought. Furthermore, Rotberg a prominent scholar of the State Failure literature was a professor of Political Science and History in the United States. Because of most of the literature being from a Western state-centric background, their understanding of the inner workings of Somalia in the absence of a central governing authority is very limited, and this bias is manifest in their writings on the matter.

Chapter 1: “State Failure”

Paul Cohen, the American historian argues:

“The West thinks of itself as probably the most cosmopolitan of all cultures. But it’s not. In many ways, it’s the most parochial, because for 200 years, the West has been so dominant in the world that it’s not really needed to understand other cultures, other civilizations. At the end of the day, it could, if necessary by force, get its own way. Whereas those cultures which have been in a far weaker position, vis-à-vis the West, have been thereby forced to understand the West, because of the West presence in those societies” (Martin, 2011).

This chapter starts with a literature review on the State Failure theory, as it is the theory that is most applied to the Somali case. For the purposes of this dissertation, the literature review section has focused more on the content of the literature and not so much on naming all the prominent scholars as they will inevitably be quoted or referred to throughout this chapter. In this sense, the whole chapter is also a literature review; Though instead of supporting this theory, it will criticise its main assumptions. Namely its adoption of Weberian approaches to the state, which limits its ability to recognise social constructions and historically specific agents of the state. This critical analysis will be divided into two sections, the first one outlining the three theoretical flaws within the theory and the latter will analyse the empirical problems for the application of the theory. The aim of this chapter is not to deny the reality of deficiencies within “failed states”, but the way this theory characterizes and explains the nature and production of such conditions.

Literature Review on State Failure Theory

The term “failed state” is only about a decade old, the concept gained momentum at the start of the 90’s with the article “Saving Failed States” by Helman and Ratner (1993)describing the “failed nation-state as utterly incapable of sustaining itself as a member of the international community” (1993, p.33). Although definitions of “state failure” vary throughout the literature, they all share a common feature: they rely on realist and neoliberal understandings and are built in opposition to the idea of “successful states”. The latter are assumed to be the norm and depart from the classical Weberian definition of statehood as “a human community that (successfully) claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory” (Gerth and Mills, 1946, p.77). Brooks, a prominent author within the literature, offers a Weberian understanding of “state failure” arguing it occurs when states “lose control over the means of violence, and cannot create peace or stability for their populations or control their territories” (2005, p.1160).

Overall, the “state failure” literature aims to identify specific traits that characterize those states unable or unwilling to perform according to the Weberian model. However, “failed states” do not remain fixed in their status or history and can show more than one “failing state” characteristic at once (Gros, 1996, p.461). Therefore, state performance is conceptualised in terms of the government effectiveness and states are divided between strong states, weak states, quasi-states or failed states accordingly. This way, Rotberg, one of the most eminent scholars, explains that strong states outperform weak states in performance of political will by delivering political goods, mainly security (Rotberg, 2004, p.2-4). Quasi-states stand in between, described by Jackson, as states with “limited empirical statehood operating without fulfilling the bare basics of positive sovereignty” (1996, p.21). However, the adoption of Weberian approaches by the “state failure” literature leads to the association of the state as a consistent goal-oriented polity, very much like the Western models of the state. This tendency limits state failure understanding as it neglects the differences and historical conflictual nature of the state.

Critical analysis of “state failure”

The main challenge when addressing “state failure” lays in its own definition. There exist many attempts for an official definition but there is no agreement within literature for the basis of the concept. This is illustrated by Zartman’s definition of a failed state: “state collapse occurs when it can no longer perform the functions required of them to pass as states” (1995, p.5). Nonetheless, Zartman does not explain which state functions must necessarily be lost for a state to be considered “collapsed”. “State failure” is a highly contested concept, yet this is not only because there is no official definition. Other scholars offer a more detailed definition like Branwen Gruffydd Jones, who frames the concept as to when a state is unable to maintain “secure boundaries, ensure the protection and security of all of the population, provide public goods and effective governance, maintain law and order throughout the territory” (Jones, 2008, p.180). However, it is possible to contest most of the requirements that encompass this definition. Specifically, in the case of Somalia this dissertation will show how boundaries or borders are one of the initial originators of the said “state failure” process. Next in order, we have security which is also a very contested concept as there are many aspects that influence security and several ways to achieve it, ergo actors might perceive security in different ways. Distinguished scholars of the Copenhagen School of Thought explained this: “the use of the security label does not merely reflect whether a problem is a security problem, it is also a political choice, that is, a decision for conceptualization in a special way” (Wæver, 1998, p.51). In other words, Branwen Gruffydd Jones understanding of security as a British Politics and International Studies lecturer will be completely different to the understanding of security of an actual citizen of Somalia as both citizens inhabit completely different political structures. The same logic can be applied to the understanding of effective governance and law and order. This means that to appropriately understand “state failure”, we must consider the epistemological underpinnings of the “state failure” literature. The main methodological burden of the “failed state” discourse is its inability to recognise social constructions and historically specific environments. In his writings, Jones presents an effective manner to define the ahistorical nature and inadequate analytical capabilities of the “failed states” discourse through the analysis of the following three defining features

Political Labelling

First, is the unnecessary reliance on an excessive amount of descriptive terminology. States are characterized as imploding, disintegrating, failed and collapsed throughout the literature, yet each scholar has its own way and argumentation for the attribution of each adjective (Clapham, 1996; Zartman, 1995; Rotberg, 2002; Carment, 2003). “The “failed states” discourse is characterized by a tendency to relegate history to adjectival explicatives” (Jones, 2008, p.184). It is quite incoherent to believe that adjectives have the capacity to provide enough information about variations of state capacity across functions. Moreover, these qualifications emerged and entered the political lexicon in the post-Cold War era as an attempt to encourage new strategic action in security and development (Nay, 2013, p.329-30). On the one hand, through the realist conception of state failure as a threat to peace and international security expressed by the Bush Administration (Rotberg, 2003). Especially since 9/11, failed states have been associated with extremism and terrorist groups. “In the absence of effective governmental control…both terrorist groups and the leaders of rogue states take ready advantage of the prevailing anarchy” (Brooks, 2005, p.1162). On the other hand, there is the neoliberal approach associating the concept with state institutional weakness and underdevelopment. Development is understood as consisting of building institutions to generate and manage economic policies and processes (Call, 2008). This was first incited by the creation of a programme on “fragile states” by the UK Department for International Development (DFID, 2005)

Social struggle and “state failure”

Furthermore, the following defining feature of “state failure” focuses on its portrayal as coming primarily from within the state. In this respect, one of the most prominent authors on this topic Robert Rotberg states: “Destructive decisions by individual leaders have almost always paved the way to state failure” (2002a, p.1) and “failed states are tense, deeply conflicted, dangerous, and bitterly contested by warring factions” (2003, p.3). The idea that internal social struggle or repression is a fundamental indicator of “failure” is an ahistorical proposition. Evidence throughout history demonstrates that the process of state formation has been scattered with conflict as power struggles appear repeatedly through history. In the past, before democracy became the main source of legitimate government rule, due to the uncertainty around the state institutional infrastructure, the different social groupings fought to establish themselves in the legitimate position of power (Cramer, 2006). Most of the developed states nowadays were formed through a process of social struggle. Thus, it is inaccurate to equate violence with “state failure”. Instead, it would be more accurate to pay attention to the duration of such violence, its direction, whether it is aimed at the government infrastructure or the regime in place, its demands, causes and justifications. This alternative, would offer a more rational explanation of the assumed “state failure”.

Western-centrism

Finally, the third feature relates to the descriptive approach of the concept and argues that the basis of this sense of “failure” is by cause of the comparison with an ideal notion of what the state is or should be. Clapham (1996) epitomises this way of thinking in his book, arguing that some nations like Somalia were destined to fail from its inception. He argues that this is because only societies with precolonial echoes of state formation are capable of effective statehood. This is relevant as Clapham assumes that state formation in such “failed states” is non-existent, nonetheless this dissertation will prove otherwise. In this manner, it is argued that the concept contains culturally specific assumptions about what a “successful” state should look like and groups together different states with diverse problems characterising them under the mutual condition of “failure” (Call, 2008, p.1495). Moreover, the state failure literature in the matter of state formation assumes there is a certain kind of good governance finality and that this movement is somehow a natural process for all states. Just like “the ‘modern’ standard of three decades ago, the ‘successful state’ standard of today is based on the features of the dominant Western states” (Call,2008, p.1499). In practice, Western democratic and market-oriented states are considered the reference point with which to assess the goal of state building. However, it is important to point out the lack of analysis or discussion within state failure literature about Western states partial failures, such as “The Troubles” or the Northern Ireland Conflict of the 1960’s. If included, these would serve as proof that “successful states” can go through a plethora of forms of violence, political conflict and social struggle and thus, there is more beyond the narrow narratives of either “successful” or “failed states”.

Empirical analysis of “state failure”

Rotberg (2004) designed a ranking of “positive” state functions with security at the top, followed by regulatory institutions, the rule of law, secure property rights and contract enforcement. In third position he chose political participation, followed by social service delivery, infrastructure and regulation of the economy. There is criticism around the division of state functions into categories arguing that “[g]iven the variation in state capacity across sectors, aggregate measures or categorisations of “failure” can be misleading” (Di John, 2010, p.14). Thus, Rotberg then rightfully clarified that it is fundamental to look at the indicators together, as just one is unable to provide enough proof about the states’ decline. Moreover, he emphasizes that to get an accurate understanding of “state failure” it needs to be specific in which dimension it fails. For instance, a nation can suffer an economic crisis without experiencing large-scale political conflict, such as the cases of Tanzania or Zambia or in the case of Colombia where “the state has an effective macroeconomic management despite being unable to control substantial parts of its territory” (Di John, 2010). Although this dissertation argues the concept “state failure” is severely flawed, the idea that it should be broken down into sub-categories is useful for analysis. There have been many attempts within the “state failure” literature to divide its different realms. However, this dissertation will use the Failed State Index produced by the Fund for Peace. It is the most accurate as it includes over 100 sub-indicators grouped into twelve key political, social and economic categories and the best one yet to incorporate the historical nature of the concept. Its 12 categories are:

  1. DP: Demographic pressures (i.e. water scarcity, mortality, population growth)
  2. REF: Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (i.e. displacement, disease flow)
  3. GG: History of aggrieved communal groups based on past injustices (i.e. powerlessness, ethnic violence)
  4. HF: Human flight & Brain drain (i.e. vacuum of human capital)
  5. UED: Uneven Economic Development (i.e. rural vs. urban distribution of services, slum population)
  6. ECO: Poverty & Economic Decline (i.e. unemployment, inflation)
  7. SL: State Legitimacy (i.e. increased corruption, institutionalised political exclusion)
  8. PS: Public Services (i.e. literacy, water and sanitation)
  9. HR: Human Rights & Rule of Law (i.e. civil liberties, political prisoners)
  10. SEC: Security Apparatus (i.e. internal conflict, appearance of private militias)
  11. FE: Factionalized Elites (i.e. political competition, defectors)
  12. EXT: External Intervention (i.e. UN Missions, Foreign Assistance)

The FSI specifies not only that a bottom up approach for state strengthening is the key to tackle “state failure” but also recommends which parts of the body politic should receive more attention. Moreover, the FSI top 10 ranking displays a wide range of distinct states such as Sudan, Syria, Haiti and Somalia as the number one. Given that the manifestations of states failure range from ethnic violence to unequal distribution of services to unemployment or presence of UN Missions, the idea that a single policy applied to the same institutions will solve the problem proves quite unrealistic. “The one-size-fits-all state-building answer to failed states misses important tensions and trade-offs in pursuing state strength” (Call, 2008, p. 1497).

The literature has come to understand “state failure” as an after-effect of underdevelopment and violent conflict. Consequently, the international community has constructed the state-building solution for addressing state failure concerned primarily with the institutional capacity of a state as conflict and violence are perceived as manifestations of institutional weakness. When scholars such as Di John (2010) refer to this logic as misleading, it is because for some “failed states” like Somalia or Syria the strength of state institutions is far less relevant than how those same state institutions address and reflect popular aspirations, needs and identity. This goes to say that although the obvious response to “state failure” points towards state building or state strengthening, institutional change or improvement is still not enough.

Going back to the analysis of the epistemological foundations of the “state failure”, in this aspect the literature often confuses or wrongly applies the concepts of state building and state formation. State building comprises a set of technical interventions, typically coming from external sources and is not considered a long process. It is described by Call and Cousens as “actions undertaken by international or national actors to establish, reform, or strengthen the institutions of the state which may or may not contribute to peacebuilding” (2008, p.4). On the other hand, “state formation is a historical, highly varied, non-linear and conflictual, typically more internal process” (Di John, 2010, p.26). It is argued in this dissertation, that what makes “failed states” distinct lays on its process of state formation, not state building. State building by its nature cannot account for what kind of regime is appropriate for each case or even for instance the proper implementation of minority group rights. In fact, if it is inadequately done state-building can even threaten peace and contribute to insecurity and group tensions (Call, 2008, p.1497-8) ashistory has shown us in the cases of Iran and Iraq. Iraq in particular is a clear example of an obvious state building approach aiming for a radical transformation into a market-oriented liberal democracy; however, it achieved the opposite. It is fundamental to understand that by exposing fragile rebuilt states to the powerful economic forces of our globalised international system, neo-liberal state building weakens the foundations of the very states that it aims to help. Putzel explains “with markets overwhelmingly stronger than states, the international organisations’ advice to state leaders about strengthening the regulatory functions of the state seems, in retrospect, either dis ingenuous or entirely naïve” (2005, p.10). External contributions for state building in those cases also led to the escalation of conflict, as the implemented state did not acknowledge the needs of its citizens.

Moreover, related to the formation of states, this dissertation finds ranking entities using the terminology of “failure index” problematic. State formation is a long term ongoing historical process, yet the terms “state failure” or “failed stare” suggest the state has reached its ultimate form implying that there is an “end state”. To avoid this, scholars like Dorff (2000) propose to use the term “failing” instead as it incorporates the idea of a continuum in which the state may go through transformations throughout its governing capacities. Regardless how we choose to interpret failure, it must be understood in the historical context in which it occurs. It is incorrect to define a state as “failed” if we only understand state formation through the neo-liberal approach. Since developed states, which are mostly Western, are represented as the key to modernity, it simultaneously supports the discourse on African failed states reinforcing the stereotype that Africans are unfit for modernity (Duffield, 2005, p.294). Nevertheless, it is crucial to understand the differences between the state formation of post-colonial states and European states, which developed gradually from empirical to judicial statehood. In contrast, African states suddenly came into existence by colonial fiat. In these cases, external factors are more likely to provide an adequate explanation of the formation and persistence of states (Jackson and Rosberg, 1982, p.23). Finally, the portrayal of statehood associated with Western standards of the state, perpetuates the Euro-centric vision of modernisation theories and hides post-colonial practices.

Likewise, “state failure literature does not acknowledge other forms of state authority organised outside the state, sub-state or transnational authority arrangements” (Call, 2008, p.1499) even when these prove more helpful than the traditional forms of state authority. This is of extreme importance in Somalia as it is a profoundly decentralised society. Before the implementation of the Transnational Federal Government (TFG), the Somali people had no stable, hierarchical political units and no chiefs wielding centralised power in the familiar European pattern, this Somali peculiarity constitutes a defining feature (Lewis, 2011). Instead, Somalis would naturally organise themselves socio-politically through patrilineal descent or clan gatherings, constructing a very flexible political system adapted to Somali nomadic life. However, the realist and neoliberal logics of “state failure” regard the state as the primary unit of analysis. Thus, they associate the absence of a legitimate central government with anarchy and consequently classify such polity in this case Somalia, as a ‘failed’ or ‘collapsed’ entity. We find evidence of this logic being embedded in the understanding of state failure by Rotberg, who describes collapsed states as “a total vacuum of authority…. a black hole into which a failed polity has fallen” (2002b, p.90). One of the findings that appeared in the research of this dissertation was that most of the literature on “state failure” comes from mainly Western scholars from traditionally state-centred disciplines such as political science. Therefore, due to their background, they have great difficulty imagining that life may continue in the absence of the state and this bias is manifest in their writings on the matter.

Conclusion

The cultural specific and associated terminology of the “failed state” concept has led to the widespread portrayal of conditions of crisis in the Global South, especially in Africa. African societies are constantly subjected to the misuse of the “failed state” discourse. In fact, Africa has been referred to as a “failed continent” by British MP Clare Short (Short 2002). Rather than identifying states as “failed” or “successful”, the analytical framework should consider state performance along a continuum of time, accepting that violence and social struggle are part of the process. Moreover, it should avoid the assumption that Western-like centralised state authority is the only effective type of statehood but allow for an interrelated but differentiated production of forms of state sovereignty. Jones advises that to do so requires “locating the notion of “failed state” in a longer history of imperial ideology, and emphasizing its current role in legitimizing intervention” (Jones, 2008, p.182). This however, does not deny the reality of a deep social and political African crisis but disputes its characterization in terms of “failure”. What this dissertation aims to criticise about the ‘failed state’ discourse has nothing to do with its empirical identification of flaws within state performance but with the manner in which it characterises and explains the nature and production of such conditions. “The notion of ‘state failure’ has been so easily adopted precisely because it holds a self-evident appeal” (Jones, 2008, p.182). The reality is that the system of nation states was created by Europeans, they even drew the borders of the African continent, promoted colonial institutions and its leaders. This needs to be included in the understanding of African state formation, because it greatly handicapped the natural “emergence of plural and civil societies that might have diminished poverty, warfare and weak institutions” (Call, 2008, p.1500).

Chapter 2: Constructivist approach

This chapter reviews constructivist contributions to the analysis of state failure arguing that it is the best theoretical approach because it uses identity as an alternative explanation for struggle, peace, alliances and warfare. Constructivists argue that “identity relations explain both enduring rivalries and security communities, cooperation on security and non-security issues, and failure to reach such agreements” (Hopf and Allan, 2016, p.4). National identity involves some sense of continuity of a political community through its history, territory and common values and ideals. Understood as a “measure of common culture and a civic ideology, a set of common understandings and aspirations, sentiments and ideas that bind the population together in their homeland” (Smith, 1991, p.11). It is materialised with one’s identification of oneself in relationship to the other. Thus, states identities and interests are constructed through social interaction with other states. Identities and interests become a “social fact” through an ongoing process of shared interactions and knowledge (Wendt, 1999, p.327-333). Any political actor or state has multiple identities because its identity changes with different types of interaction. Ultimately, political actors “adopt and follow norms because to do so is consistent with their identities” (Hopf and Allan, 2016, p.7) This will be further explained and exemplified throughout this chapter and dissertation through the constructivist analysis of the Somali identity formation. The aim is to prove that constructivism can offer a more complete and substantive understanding of the Somali dilemma.

Constructivist theoretical approach

Based on the analysis of “state failure” theory it is arguable that its logic comes from positive-rationalist international relation theories such as realism and neoliberalism. In this sense, from realism we identify the notion of state as the main actor and survival as the main goal. Realism assumes “states are rational actors, which is to say they are capable of coming up with sound strategies that maximize their prospects for survival” (Mearsheimer, 2013, p.74). Realism’s emphasis on state survival explains the employment of the concept of failure. Moreover, neoliberalist influence becomes evident in “state failure” criteria as it is concerned with democratic government structures and a liberal type of economic development. However, these theoretical foundations offer a flawed analysis of the case at hand because they focus mainly on the state system as the primary unit of analysis. Thus, they are unable to incorporate main agents such as identity, other forms of social organisation or a historical method. This is because rationalists recognise the social experiences as explained in the same way as the natural world and do not consider facts and values as as important. Therefore, they believe that “actors act in this pre-given world according to the demands of instrumental reason” (Zehfuss, 2002, p.3).

On the other hand, constructivism focuses on the intersubjective meanings and the social nature of identity, state interaction, norms, culture, knowledge and history. Post-positivist theories like Constructivism stress the dual character of the social and material world. Adler argues that “the material world shapes human interaction and vice versa” (Ikenberry, Adler and Barnett, 1999, p.12-13). In this sense, constructivism can omit the politics already involved in representing reality to achieve a more accurate understanding of its subject of analysis. This is useful in the case study of this project since the concept of failed state is based on a Western understanding of statehood as most of the literature comes from Western scholars. This offers a limited version of reality because knowledge is socially constructed as constructivism explains. It is our experience which over a longer period, makes us construct knowledge and the meanings of ideas through ongoing interactions of various modalities. Constructivism does not ask the question “What is knowledge?” but “How is knowledge generated?” (Riegler, 2001, p.10). In this case, how is Somali struggle generated will be the subject of analysis. In Riegler’s words, “meaning is a human construct; it does not reside somewhere else and is not independent of the person who makes it” (Riegler, 2001, p.6). Thus, to avoid limited versions of reality and understand whether Somalia is a failed state or not, we must first understand its identity and how it is socially constructed.

Constructivism believes the social world is constructed, not given (Wendt, 1999, p.1-4). The structure of the international system is primarily cultural rather than material. Hopf illustrates how contrarily to realist theory, security dilemmas do not occur because of state’s norms, instead it is “by providing meaning, identities diminish uncertainty” (Hopf, 1998, p.186-188). Identity can explain, for example, why France does not fear UK nuclear weapons but Pakistan and India mutually fear each other’s possession of nuclear weapons. Uncertainty depends on the meaning of the other’s identity, whether it is understood as a friend or a foe. “Change becomes possible because people and states can start thinking about each other in new ways and thus create new norms” (Jackson and Sørensen, 2006, p.162). Thus, political actors can redefine their identities and shared norms through social construction. To appreciate the influence of identities and/or norms, it is necessary to explore intersubjective meanings and the social construction of such. “The meaning of these material forces depends largely on shared ideas in which they are embedded” (Wendt, 1999, p.193). State identities allows them to understand who they are and identify their interests. After all, it is the socially constructed identity that develops interests and guides the policies and actions of states.

Moreover, constructivism proves helpful because although it acknowledges that states are important actors, it believes non-state actors and the structure of the international system also constitute identities and interests. This is relevant because positive-rationalist approaches, which consider the state as the main unit of analysis, are unable to offer a proper understanding of the situation in cases of state collapse or absence of a central authority. Instead, identity is always present in a political entity regardless of its political stance. “Once one has uncovered a prevailing discourse of national identity, one can expect that discourse to both persist over time and explain a broad range of outcomes, regardless of who is making foreign policy in that state” (Hopf and Allan, 2016, p.11).

Conclusion

State failure theory has a positive-rationalist theoretical background which constricts its understanding of such states because it focuses mainly on the state as the primary unit of analysis. However, constructivism offers an alternative by focusing on identity and the intersubjective meanings of social constructions. Instead of arguing weather a political entity has succeeded or failed, it is able to offer explanations on why and how such entity is going through said “success” or “failure”. Hence, it avoids the simplistic political labelling this dissertation condemned in the first chapter. Constructivism underlines the duality of the social and material world. In a solely material world, the absence of the state would imply the dissolution of the nation-state. Alternatively, constructivism can offer an explanation in those situations where national identity is shared among individuals belonging to a community with a dysfunctional state. Identity reflects the sentiment of belonging to the nation regardless of whether it has or does not have an operational state of its own. National identity involves some sense of continuity of a political community where the population share history and the collective destiny of its culture (Smith 1991, p.25). Thus, to understand whether Somalia is a failed state or not, we must first understand its identity and how it is socially constructed.

THIS CONTENT WAS WRITTEN BY THE STUDENT CAROLINA MAÑOSO GIMENO
 The original article is available on : http://www.e-ir.info/2017/08/17/a-constructivist-approach-to-analysing-somalias-state-failure/

India historically has been a supporter of Myanmar and didn’t even shy from dealing with Myanmar’s dictatotrial Military Junta government despite US objections.It is because India can’t let it’s eastern neighbour slip into Chinese hands which is looking for influence there.

​Though it’s quite heartening to see that the same award wapsi brigade which once declared India intolerant for minorities is asking to give Rohingyas refuge in this country exhorting and venerating it’s pluralistic and secularist ethos.

With out delving too much into political rhetoric I want to focus on geopolitical and security aspect of this.India gave refuge to Tamils of Sri Lanka and refrained from condemnation of Tamil terrorism in Sri Lanka for a long time. Even when it recognised LTTE a terrorist organisation it kept ostracizing Sri Lanka on human rights violations.It even voted against Sri Lanka in UNHRC on implemantation of 13th amendment of Sri Lankan constitution.

India Vs China in Sri Lanka

On the other hand China and Pakistan continued to support Sri Lanka military and morally.Result was Pakistani subs and ships docked in Sri Lanka in 1965 and 1971 wars and in recent times growing influence of China on Sri Lanka.Sri Lanka’s has become a victim of loan warfare of Chinese and it’s HAMBANTOTA port has become a diamond in China’s string of pearls. Though Sri Lanka’s has recently announced its not for Chinese military allaying the growing resentment of locals but it continues to give severe headache to Luteyns Hawks designing India’s Defense and foreign policy. Feel how throttling it is to have your enemy around every corner of your house and in this case at your doorsteps.

India Vs China in Myanmar

Same goes with Myanmar , India historically has been a supporter of Myanmar and didn’t even shy from dealing with Myanmar’s dictatotrial Military Junta government despite US objections.It is because India can’t let it’s eastern neighbour slip into Chinese hands which is looking for influence there.Earlier this year China has sought over 80% stake in a port in Rakhine province in  Myanmar .Now those who know a iota of foreign policy matters won’t deny that it’s all about give and take.India has high stakes in Mynamar and its stability is crucial for India because it has invested a lot in sittwe Island and infrastructure including highways and hyder power plants.It’s crucial for India’s Act East policy and is India’s natural gateway to southeast Asia.

Now Mynamar in wake of this Rohingya crisis has now sought China’s help in blocking the UNHRC sanctions against it.China being a permanent memeber of security council can come quite handy to Myanmar given its history of playing down India’s interests.Also India’s rebuttal of Myanmar in its fight against terrorism at this crucial stage of the crisis may not go down well with Myammar govt. and it will only result in sabotaging India’s relentless efforts to counter Chinese influence in IOR region.

The origin of conflict goes back to 1943-44 when British armed the Rohingyas to wage a guerrilla war against the occupying Japanese

The origin of conflict goes back to 1943-44 when British armed the Rohingyas to wage a guerrilla war against the occupying Japanese.The Rohingya leadership howerver turned on local Buddhists and triggered a civil war .In 1947-1948 the Rohingya leadership sought the merger of Rakhine with the erstwhile East Pakistan , an I’ll considered move that opened the community to the charges of disloyalty and separatism.Since 1980’s Rohingyas separatism has steadily acquired an Islamic dimensions.

“According to an international crisis group report of 2016 , Harakah-al-Yaqin(HaY) is controlled by 20 man group of Rohingya expatriates based in Mecca and Medina .Many of them have recieved military training by ISI in Pakistan , this is the another reason why India doesn’t want to whittle down it’s tough stand on Rohingyas extremism.”

Those who remain unremindful of the fact that 1st surgical strike by the MODI govt. was against the NSCN-K terrorists in Myanmar which couldn’t have been possible without Myanmars military assistance.In the past also Myanmar army has launched offensive against north east separatists who take refuge in border areas of Myanmar on India’s insistence.

” India can’t afford the dichotomy of preaching Myanmar on human right violations in its fight against Islamic terrorism also when she keeps raking up the issue of Pakistan sponso

Blocking them can’t Undo the injustice happened to Kashmiri Hindus

red Islamic terrorism at each and every International faura.”

Around 40,000 Rohingyas have illegally entered in India,half of them living in Jammu and Ladakh.Most of these have entered during last few years that is during Modi’s rule and will continue to do so and there is no way India can deport them back because they are stateless according to UN conventions and but this ‘proverbial’ tough stand against them will serve a strong blow to nefarious designs of separatists in Kashmir who dont want Indians to settle in their own land and Hindu refugees from Pakistan but are garlanding Rohingyas.

 

“It is high time that India calls separatist’s bluff and expose this facade called ‘Azaadi’ which is nothing but Islamisation of Valley”

Another important factor is the demographical changes brought by Bangladeshi refugees in ASSAM and West Bengal.Assam riots in 2012 were a result of  resentment among indegenous Assamese Bodo population accusing Bangladeshi refugees of illegally settling in the state.On parting note this govt. is known for not mincing the words and calling a spade a spade and despite being lampooned by Islamists over recent historical visit to Israel it made a point that it will not carry the historical baggage of placating Indian Muslims over Palestinian cause because Nation and it’s interests are above all and everything. National security and human rights can and will have to walk hand in hand and policy on Palestanine and Rohingyas bears a testimony to this fact.

 

This article was written by Anurag Sharma and published on his blog : https://anuragtalks.wordpress.com/2017/09/08/india-and-rohingyas/  

 

As the dust settles in on President Donald Trump’s Afghanistan speech there has been quite a lot of fuss about Pakistan’s role in providing support to militants in Afghanistan.  That this allegation comes up again is nothing new or earth shattering. It has been a tried and tested formula for the United States (US) to lash out at Pakistan publicly.

Key Balancing

Yet scratching beneath the surface and behind the headlines, one will notice reliance on the Pakistan military and its intelligence services for American and British security since 9/11. Further to this, the Pakistani army are the leading trainers of Arab militaries and a key balancing act between the tinder box of tensions between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Pakistan’s Army has undergone a transition post- the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Prior to the terrorist attacks in the United States, Pakistan’s army had trained for conventional war against its arch enemy India.

Furthermore, the Pakistani Army has become the first Army from the Islamic world to train British and international officer cadets at the world’s oldest elite military training school the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (RMAS). Aside from this, the United Nations’ centre for excellence for peace keeping training is located in Pakistan where officers from all over the world come to be trained in conflict resolution. This article analyzes the Pakistan Army’s role in securing stability around the world, in the West and Middle East in particular.

Dick Cheney in Pakistan
 Pakistan’s Army transition post 9/11Pakistan’s Army has undergone a transition post- the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Prior to the terrorist attacks in the United States, Pakistan’s army had trained for conventional war against its arch enemy India. Indeed, it had fought three major wars against India. Yet as the insurgents fled from Afghanistan into Pakistan, the Pakistanis had to re-train their doctrinal ethos into sub-conventional warfare and counter insurgency. After initial failures in the tribal areas and Swat Valley, the Army turned a significant corner by routing the insurgency from 2014 onwards. Some of the leading Western sceptics wrote openly how the Pakistan Army had won its war on terror.

During this time according to Lt-General Patrick Sanders, Commander Field Army of the British Armed forces said that the Pakistan Army achieved in Waziristan what the British could not achieve in 200 years. The Pakistan Army has one of the highest casualty rates on the Afghan border. This meant they have become extremely battle hardened and sought after as trainers in the Arab world and beyond. The Czech Republic and Germany are both seeking training from the Pakistani military following in the footsteps of the British Army; despite German media pressure to not to get too close to the Pakistani military. So why are so many countries and militaries cozying up to the Pakistani Army despite pressure to do the opposite?

Despite the politics and headlines, senior American officials and leaders have gone quite far to praise the Pakistani military’s fight against terror and the capture of senior al Qaeda leadership.

Dick Cheney

Former Vice President Dick Cheney in particular went into some detail about decisions taken by Pakistani generals despite militant threats against their personal lives and their children. General Tommy Franks talks about the key air and land corridors that were provided by the Pakistan military that led to the first push into Afghanistan to fight Al Qaeda.

So how does this sit with the allegations of Pakistani duplicity in Afghanistan?

One cannot argue against those allegations within the parameters of this article but again senior Western generals have come into the defence of the Pakistani military.Former commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan and ex CIA director David Petraeus in a public lecture at the Royal United Services Institution (RUSI) said that in his time he saw no evidence of direct Pakistani involvement in Afghanistan. Britain’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Sherard Cowper-Coles in his book mentioned that the British Army and its Generals were always concerned about making the Pakistan Army happy much to the disappointment of President Karazai. British former Chief of Defence Staff, General Lord David Richards also worked very closely with the Pakistan Army to ensure the Afghan operations were not compromised.

In the Middle East, the Pakistan Army is no longer taking sides with any one country and instead providing balance to tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan is also at the moment of writing training 156 Saudi Cadets in its academy in Abbottabad and also dozens of Iraqis and Arab militaries both in country and abroad.  Pakistan was also one of the few countries that Iraq thanked after the liberation of Mosul last month that was not part of the overall international coalition to fight ISIL in Iraq.

This was also a result of the extensive training that the Pakistanis have been providing to the Iraqi Air Force. The veteran British Afghan expert and journalist Sandy Gall in his book on the Taliban actually starts out by saying how much the Jordanians respect and like the Pakistan Army for helping them fight the PLO during Black September. One of Pakistan’s leading pilots was given full honours and highest military awards by Jordan as he helped their King train the Jordanian air force during the war against Israel.

The key to the Pakistan Army’s strategic importance lies in what Churchill called importance of having an Army that can help stability in the Middle East and West Asia.

As an army that inherited most if not all of its regiments from the British in India, it has strived for excellence in training and performing in multiple arenas around the globe. Purely as a fighting force and in matters of intelligence sharing, it remains critical to security in the West and the Middle East. Away from the politics it shall continue to dominate the defence diplomacy with the West and evolve with its handling of international relations. Whilst the Islamic State spread rapidly throughout non-Arab Muslim countries it has failed to take root in Pakistan.

The Saudis and other Arab states have noticed the army’s success in overturning the insurgency and hence made a Pakistani general in charge of its ‘Islamic NATO’. Ironically whilst the West criticises the Army interfering in politics, prominent US Senator John McCain called for General Raheel Sharif to have his tenure extendedin 2016. Similarly a leading editorial in Washington Post argued that the General‘s departure could be bad news. Hence to conclude we can say that, Pakistan Army is leading the fight and is playing a key role in warfare and security provision in an increasingly volatile world.

 

This article was written by KAMAL ALAM and published on e-ir.info. The original article is available here.

Will Angela Merkel respond to voters’ concerns or keep ignoring them? German chancellor Angela Merkel has paid a steep price for her controversial 2015 decision to let in millions of people fleeing Middle Eastern and African countries. Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, came in first in Sunday’s elections, but its 33 percent haul was its worst result since the party’s founding in 1945, at the end of WWII. (The opposition Social Democrats also turned in their worst post-war result.)

Merkel’s policies on refugees and, in particular, her poor record on assimilation of migrants led 1.1 million of her party’s 2013 voters to flee to the nationalist Alternative for Germany, which won a stunning 13 percent of the vote. Merkel’s failure to stand up for free-market policies caused an additional 1.3 million of her party’s previous voters to plump for the pro-market Free Democrats, who doubled their 2013 vote and reentered parliament. The big news out of the election is that Merkel is now weakened and will probably have to take on the odd couple of the Free Democrats and the left-wing Greens to form a government. She has ruled out having any alliance with Alternative for Germany, which polite society in Germany brands as anti-democratic, racist, and xenophobic. Its political opponents tar it with even worse names.

Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Cem Özdemir, co-leaders of the Green party, used their post-election speeches to tell supporters that there were “again Nazis in parliament.” 00:00 00:33 Powered by That sort of name-calling obscures the real reasons for the rise of the Alternative for Germany party. More than 80 percent of Germans are satisfied with their economic condition, but in the formerly Communist eastern states that reunited with Germany in 1990, life has been tough and employment prospects limited. In those areas, the Alternative party won 22 percent of the vote (it placed first with male voters at 27 percent). Similarly, many Germans believed that the “grand coalition” of Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the left-wing Social Democrats had suffocated political debate in Germany, closing out real discussion over the migrant problem, crime, bailouts of countries hurt by the faltering euro, and the loss of German sovereignty.

Everyone who voted for the Alternative knew they wouldn’t enter government, but many wanted them to have a voice. Groups that have felt behind by economic and cultural change were especially attracted by its promise to upset the cozy political culture of the capital in Berlin. Consider that the Alternative party won support across the political spectrum. While 1,070,000 voters left Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union to vote for them, almost as many voters (970,000) abandoned the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the Left party (which has it roots in the old Communist regime of East Germany) to vote for a nationalist party that combines hostility to radical Islam with opposition to bigger government.

After the votes were in, Left-party leader Katja Kipping mourned that “the progressive Left has fallen below 40 percent of the vote” for the first time in any modern German election. How to explain these head-spinning developments?

Henry Olsen, the editor of the Flyover Country blog at the current-affairs website UnHerd, explained to me that the German elections bear a resemblance to the Brexit results in Britain and to the Trump victory in the U.S. “For the same reason you had Labour-party voters going for Brexit and Obama voters abandoning Hillary, politics in Western countries is increasingly not about Left v. Right but about Ins v. Outs. If you are part of the elite, you have likely backed policies that the working class thinks hurt them.” Olsen isn’t sure how Merkel and her chastened conservatives will handle their slap from the voters.

He thinks that if an unwieldy coalition of Conservatives, Free Democrats, and Greens is cobbled together but doesn’t deliver fundamental change, the forces fueling the Alternative for Germany will only accelerate. “Merkel might be unable to stomach the moves toward economic liberalism and cultural conservatism the election results show Germans want,” Olsen says. “But if she can’t handle it, the Christian Democrats will have only one choice: Find someone who can.”
This article was published by the National Review
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/451678/german-voters-rattle-elites-merkel-loses-strength

Central African Republic (CAR) has descended into a civil war in 2013 when Seleka rebels took power, toppling President Francois Bozize and wreaked devastation on the country’s fragile economy. However, in November 2016, CAR was at the heart of a donor conference in Brussels which led to the establishment of a five year recovery plan estimated budget of 3.1 billion dollars.

Image result for central african republic crisis

CAR’s National Assembly has approved a finance bill which provides important investments in the country by 2017, as the CAR government believes that a gradual return to peace will push development, despite thousands of men, women, and children still displaced by violence.

Martin Ziguélé is a widely respected Central African politician and economist, successful former Prime Minister, argued that since he is the current President of Finance, Economic and Planning Commission at the National Assembly of the CAR; his public support to his MP colleagues was clear to vote for the 2017 budget. He believes that this budget is credible, even though some points still need to be improved.

“The 2017 budget plans to tackle the economic downturn through huge investments in economic recovery: launching agriculture and export products such as cotton and coffee, repairing roads and transport infrastructures, paying last year’s depths to farmers in cotton sectors. The budget registers an increase of 27, 88% of domestic incomes compared to last year, which records 137 billion of CFA francs in 2017 against 105 billion in 2016.” Ziguélé stressed

The plan is crucial and necessary for the country

Muhammad Zakaria, economist and senior researcher at the CEMAC region, thinks that economic revitalization is impossible without encouraging domestic production and granting facilities to the productive sector of the economy. It requires free movement of people and capitals, which is Bangui government is unable to achieve it at the moment.

“There may be a relatively effect in revitalizing the economy in the short term, however, the new plan considered to be an economic dilemma in the long term of a different kind.” Zakaria said.

Mr. Ziguélé views the recovery plan as necessity and crucial for the country, it is a matter of life and death for CAR. “I just want to remind you the figures of our GDP in the last four years during the crisis, it is as follows: -36.7 % in 2013. 1 % in 2014, 4.8 % by 2015, and + 5.7% in 2016. And according to this year; the 2017 GDP growth is expected to be 4, 8% at least.” Ziguélé said in an interview.

The current government is able to push the economy forward

Mr. Ziguélé thinks that the current economic and financial ministers are well aware of the global economic challenges; they have the right experience to boost the economy. But as far as everybody knows, there are some internal issues such as insecurity which has a decisive influence on the trend of economic and financial recovery.

Zakaria seems to be aware of the CAR problems on the ground; he argued that the absence of the government control on the ground led to the emergence of many monopolistic groups took over the control of goods circulation, which horrendously led to the raise of goods and services prices.

“Foreign grants and aids are useless without the activation of local production. And the biggest proof of that is the failure of 2015 aids that totaled 43.4 billion CFA francs according to the French Treasury.” Zakaria said

“The budget has been well planned”

Mr. Ziguélé explained that this budget has been well planned to solve administrative, social and security challenges. But obviously, it cannot solve all the problems during this year as the budget deficit is at 2.9% of the GDP, less than the limit of 3% defined with the IMF. He recalls that the country is under FEC Program with the fund since 2016.

Eleven percent of the budget has been allocated to the ministry of defense making a total of 27 billion CFA francs which will be used to pay the salaries of the security forces.

“On 237 billion CFA of expenses; the budget is as follows: 145 billion (61, 2% on domestic expenses), 72 billion (30, 37%) to investments expenses and 19 billion (8% to debt payments).” Said Ziguélé

Additional actions needed

Mr. Ziguélé argued that Even though support from donors still a good solution because of the urgencies faced the country, however, it cannot be sufficient because the economic downturn is rooted far back since 1990’s. The need for total and complete recovery is evaluated to about 20 000 billion CFA francs during the next five years, which cannot totally resolved today. “So we have to take also drastic domestic measures to increase national fiscal income.” Ziguélé stressed.

Report of fraying ties comes as US President Donald Trump presses Beijing to apply pressure on Pyongyang

China and North Korea have reached “a near-total breakdown of high-level diplomacy” just as the White House is demanding that Beijing apply more pressure to rein in its onetime close ally, Reuters reported on Friday.

Since Kim Jong-Un’s 2013 execution of his uncle Jang Song Thaek, who was Pyongyang’s chief liaison with Beijing, relations have turned for the worse, Reuters said. Some diplomats and experts think Kim may begin to see China as an enemy, according to the report.

Image result for china north korea map
The Chinese army has deployed 150,000 troops to the Yalu River Bridge at the North Korean border in anticipation of a wave of refugees from North Korea if war breaks out. Meanwhile, the US Navy has moved the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group from Singapore to the North Korean peninsula Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4400100/North-Korea-warns-ready-war-U-S-deployed-warships.html#ixzz4td08iarz Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

“There has never existed a subordinate relationship between the two sides,” Jin Canrong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, told the news agency. “Never. Especially after the end of the Cold War, the North Koreans fell into a difficult situation and could not get enough help from China, so they determined to help themselves.”

A series of floods and droughts in North Korea was partially responsible for a famine that killed hundreds of thousands between 1994-98, with the loss of Soviet support exacerbating the situation, and forcing the government to incorporate certain elements of market economics.

Pyongyang’s rapidly escalating missile and nuclear tests have led to increasing strained relations with Beijing. China in August halted iron, iron ore, and seafood imports from North Korea in accordance with United Nations sanctions.

This week China signaled it would support the United Nations taking further measures against North Korea following the test.

“Given the new developments on the Korean peninsula, China agrees that the UN Security Council should respond further by taking necessary measures,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a press conference in Beijing.

A draft US-authored resolution submitted to the UN Security Council would go far beyond seven previous rounds of sanctions — and would rock Kim’s isolated authoritarian regime.

The draft demands not only an oil embargo and a freeze on any assets Kim holds abroad, but also a ban on textile exports and an end to payments made to North Korean guest workers.

US President Donald Trump meanwhile warned last month that the United States was considering cutting economic ties with any countries that do business with North Korea.

Trump’s threat came after Pyongyang detonated what it claimed was a hydrogen bomb able to fit atop a missile.

While the United States has virtually no trade with the North, the burden of sanctions as described by Trump and Mnuchin would fall heavily on China, which is Pyongyang’s sole major ally and buys about 90 percent of North Korean exports.

AFP contributed to this report.

Source : https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/asia-pacific/155000-170908-near-total-breakdown-in-china-north-korea-relations-says-report

As I compile this article the death toll, as a direct consequence of deadly protests in Kenya following the declaration of election results, has risen to 24. This worrisome eventuality brings back gruesome memories of the 2007 post-election violence that has claimed more than one thousand lives and internally displaced more than half a million people. It is disheartening that election remains a recipe for tension and violence in most African nations.

How the 2017 Kenya’s Election was rigged

Political immaturity = Violences

Political immaturity and lack of trust in the electoral process, due to executive influence, prompt rank and file supporters to engage in violence when the leader they support loses an election or refuses to concede defeat or seek Legal redress through courts. The political temperature has been steadily rising in Kenya ahead of the August 8 general elections. Against all odds, the election passed off smoothly and was held largely in a peaceful and orderly manner with the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta, 55, declared the winner having garnered 54% while his rival and closest contender Raila Odinga, 72, clung 45%.

The latter however dismissed the results as fake alleging that “the electoral commission’s IT system has been hacked to manipulate the election results.” However, Odinga has so far failed to produce material evidence to substantiate his claims. His apparent foot-dragging to concede defeat has prompted supporters to take to the streets in protest against the official results. Accepting defeat remains elusive in many parts of the Continent. I am very aware that a good number of African leaders hold on to power by any means of possible, including the manipulation of election results and barring international observers or the media from keeping an eye on the electoral process.

Gambia’s Silent Revolution

Zimbabwe’s and Gabon’s examples

Zimbabwe’s longtime strongman Robert Mugabe has audaciously clung on to power despite his clear defeat in Zimbabwe’s presidential election in 2008, by blocking the electoral commission from releasing official results and threatening to treat an opposition claim of victory as a coup. Recently, Gabon’s Ali Bongo stole the election by manipulating the final results. Nevertheless, the case is different this time around in Kenya.

Election observers, including AU representatives and US former Secretary State John Kerry, have all given the election a clean bill of health. Former UN boss Kofi Annan and EU Foreign Chief Federica Mogherini are among a host of world leaders who have urged Odinga to seek redress in courts. The president-elect has appealed for calm and urged the police to show restraint.  As a matter of fact, the AU has sent a congratulatory message to Kenyatta on his victory signaling his endorsement of the election outcome. The international community seems to have thrown its weight behind Kenyatta, with the election touted free and fair by election observers. Domestically, Odinga’s call for a worker’s strike has been largely ignored which equally underlines apathy for wide-spread violence and a desire to let the country move on.

Strong Kenyan Economy

Kenyatta is credited for Kenya’s rapidly growing economy. The World Bank’s most recent Kenya Economic Update (KEU) October 2016 projected a 5.9% growth in 2016, rising to 6% in 2017. The key drivers for this growth, according to the World Bank, include: a vibrant services sector, enhanced construction, currency stability, low inflation, low fuel prices, a growing middle-class and rising incomes, a surge in remittances, and increased public investment in energy and transportation.

Odinga, who has long aspired to run East Africa’s powerhouse with a population of extremely 48 million people, needs, in my point of view, to put his country’s interest above his own by retiring from active politics and becoming a statesman, given his long torturous struggle for democracy and the rule of law.

By: Basidia Drammeh – Gambian researcher, Canada

No one really knows how big the African Diaspora is. The World Bank estimates Africans in the diaspora are spread out across the continents. In North America, there are 39 million from the African Diaspora; 113 million in Latin America; 13.6 million in the Caribbean; and 3.5 million in Europe. However, the African Diaspora plays a critical role in the transformation of the socio-economy of the African continent and the continent’s growth. Reports say that remittances to Africa in 2010 exceeded $40 billion.

What is the African Diaspora?

Beatrice N. Kabutakapua, Writer and Researcher, argues that the definition of the African Diaspora changes based on who’s talking, some consider the African Diaspora all those with some connection – although weak connection to the continent – such as African Americans and Afro- others have spoken about the contemporary African Diaspora which is the more recent groups of people who left the continent after years of independence. For governments; the African Diaspora might be a not-well-defined group of people who might be help to fill the gaps of development for Africa.

Gianpaolo Bucci, Director and Producer of the Invisible Cities project who believes that “The whole world is our home”, defines it as a consistent flux of migration from the African continent, determined not only by conflicts, political and economic crises, but also by cultural factors – postcolonial influences, as the common perception of Western societies like an Eldorado – which gave origin to new solidaristic communities settled in the rest of the world.

Foreign Military Interventions in Africa: Does One Plus One Equal Fifty Four?

Economic and development contribution

The World Bank states that the diaspora Africans who live in North America are the most educated, skilled and resourceful community of Africans anywhere in the world and it is estimated that they save $53 billion annually.

Bucci thinks that Diaspora is already contributing, through remittances and returning entrepreneurs who are investing knowledge and skills acquired abroad in their home countries. Unfortunately, their contribution is limited to some extent by colonial influences and local attitudes.

“As for the economic development in Africa; I believe they shouldn’t be too pressured into trying to be the solution because there are still governments who are supposed to find a solution in the continent. The African Diaspora should indeed be facilitated into creating new opportunities in Africa but should not be burdened with the idea they are the solution for the continent’s economy,” said Kabutakapua.

Challenges

“From my perspective, which is the perspective of a journalist and researcher with African origins; one of the biggest challenges facing Africans overseas in Europe is representation and recognition. I feel there are still too many prejudices linked to being African and probably one of the reasons why is that what is portrayed in television is the so called “refugees crisis”. By offering this myopic and uneven representation all the others categories of Africans are left out – which negatively would affect their contribution to the continent at the end: entrepreneurs, students, researchers, businesspeople… Some steps are being done on local levels but there is still a long way ahead,” Kabutakapua stressed.

Bucci argues that the African Diaspora communities suffer a lack of recognition and visibility among indigenous in most European countries. Because media and politics are entirely focused on refugees and stranded migration. This informs a stereotypical image of afro-descendants that greatly affects their interactions with autochthonous societies: therefore, the access of afro-descendants to a wider range of opportunities is restricted by prejudices.

Author: Idriss Zackaria Idriss // Photos : Beatrice N. Kabutakapua, Writer and Researcher, Gianpaolo Bucci.