38 hours from Syria to the West: Chronicle of an Announced Event

What’s going on in Syria? How long has the current President Bashar al-Asad been governing? Why is it credited with launching chemical weapons over the Shayrat region? How much support does Vladimir Putin give to his Syrian counterpart and what role does he play in the war? How long has the’ civil war’ been going on in the Arab country and what are its possible conclusions?

What’s going on in Syria?

Fifty-nine (59) Tomahawks missiles from the USS Porter and USS Ross naval destroyers from the Mediterranean Sea have been the response of the United States to the clear crime against humanity that occurred in the city of Homs, but less clearly the authorship or attribution (from my point of view).

The people of Syria have since 2011 immersed in what they call a” civil war”, which I call rather an intra-Islamic war. A war between the two main factions of the Islamist religion: the Sunni and Shia. The latter represented by the government, quantified in a population of 13% and the Sunnis (the majority) who represent 70% of the population adding the presence of 10% Christians.

President Bashar al-Asad is an alawist Shia faction, a people that has been repressed over time by the Sunni majority from Iraq, Lebanon, Iran to Syria. The Al-Asad family under the genesis of their father Hafez al-Asad, a soldier and politician trained in Soviet military academies over the past century, has held the country under the yoke of his rule since the 1970 under the leadership developed in the syrian armed forces.

Sarin Gas Attacks

Most Western countries like the United States attribute the Sarin gas attack a few days ago to Al-Asad’s regime and his army. I would like to point out that among all this jigsaw puzzle of interests there is the presence of the Jihadist group ISIS, better known in Spanish as the Islamic State or Daesh in arab language . The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is an armed group of radical Sunni belief specifically fundamentalist and takfirist characteristic. Sunnis and Shia have thrived since ancient times in an increasingly intense and gradual confrontation since the beginnings of Islam but the emergence of this type of extremist movement has in recent years created a joint struggle and thus seen as the vertex of support of both doctrines for their survival within their own lands.

The Role of Russia

Now let us see the role that Russia plays in all this success…..

Russia is the most important ally of the Bashar regime. The Kremlin brings its military, logistical, technical support and arms supply support to the government regime (exported as trade) in parallel with an alliance of countries of the European – North American – Arabian axis in the war against the Islamic State. Now, the most relevant question would be:

What does Russia get from this bilateral agreement beyond trade and/or export of needs for Syria?

The answer is: presence in the Mediterranean Sea with the administration and modernization of the Port of Tartus.

The port of Tartus means for Russia the most important presence in foreign waters within the Middle East since the time of the Soviet Union (USSR) in the 20 century. The relevance of the Port of Tartus means the most strategic maritime communication channel in the eastern hemisphere which helps the Russians to establish a route from Middle East to the Eurozone and North Africa with exit to the Atlantic Ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar.

If we look at it from a holistic patriotic point of view, Putin’s Russia has been in recent times reprojecting (the essence of the former USSR) a unification of its surrounding territories, two examples would quickly be the annexation of Crimea and Sebastopol to the Russian Federation accompanied in parallel by a greater geopolitical presence throughout the world.

Really, what is the long-term future of Syria?

It is 38 hours from the Syria West Coast in a southerly direction through Lebanon, Israel, Egypt to Libya.

We must support the diplomatic solutions, we like international comunnity should engage the different parts in Syria (civil sociaty , goverment and private sector) into the diplomatic negotiation process for conquer the peace that the country deserves

If occidental forces of North America, Europe and Russia continue to disrupt Syria’s internal conflicts and dialogue we’ll find a new Libya in Syria in a near future, a failed state absent of ethic and good management for legislative or executive powers, devastated since infrastructures until the soul of its citizens turning 38 hours into more than a decade of national suffering.

Moisés A. Cabrera

About the Author

Moisés A. Cabrera  is from Santiago Providence, Dominican Republic and  is an Electromechanical Engineer and a Foreign Policy Policy Blogger. He has a blog called PuntoReferendum focus on International Security and Defense.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.