Young Diplomats

Ten years after the release of “Zeid report” which explored concrete measures to eliminate cases of sexual exploitation in the context of UN peacekeeping operations, nothing has alsmot changed. “UN peacekeepers exchanged money, jewelry, perfume, phones against sexual favors,” notes a report by the office of internal investigations by the UN, to be published next week. The organization’s code of conduct strictly prohibits Yet sex in exchange for food, money or other material assets. The institution also strongly disapproves since 2003 sexual relations between peacekeepers and the populations they are supposed to protect, but not ban, which leaves room for interpretation to the soldiers deployed in the field.

But the report notes that two holding peace operations in Haiti (MINUSTAH) and Liberia (UNMIL) “show that these exchanges are widespread sexual nature, underestimated and not sufficiently reported. “According to the document, 231 Haitian women reported having sex with peacekeepers in exchange for material goods. The report notes that the conditions that encourage this type of operation are “hunger and shortage of essential commodities and medicines.” Only seven women were aware of the “zero tolerance” policy of the United Nations on sexual abuse. And none knew of the existence of a telephone line to denounce such abuses.

“Naming and shaming”

According to another survey conducted in Monrovia (Liberia) with a sample of 489 women aged 18 to 30 in 2012, “more than a quarter (…) had engaged in transactional sex with the peacekeepers, generally for money. “The report also believes that the number of condoms distributed to avoid risk of HIV infection suggests that” sexual relations between peacekeepers and the local population are widespread. ”

Between 2008 and 2013, 480 cases of abuse or sexual exploitation have been identified within the United Nations, and one third of these cases involves minors. For the first time in a report, the Bureau of Internal Investigations practice the policy of “naming and shaming” of naming and denouncing the countries whose nationals are guilty of such acts. Four countries are particularly affected: Pakistan, Uruguay, South Africa and Nigeria. These accusations are aimed primarily military. But civilians (17% of mission personnel), account for 33% of the charges.

“Despite a continued decline in the number of complaints, which is partly explained by an underestimation of the number of cases the effectiveness of the fight against the sexual exploitation and abuse is hampered by a complex organization and slow the organization to investigate and help the victims, “says the office of internal investigations.

The report estimates that the investigations into the accusations are “too much time” (sixteen-month average period). The UN must also rely on the country of origin of the perpetrators and the national courts for sanctions, leading to “very large disparities between states.” Civilians are often dismissed as soldiers and policemen are sent home and banned from participating in another UN mission. This survey comes at a time when the UN is heavily criticized for its handling of child rapes committed in the Central African accusations by French soldiers, Chad and Equatorial Guinea. But she does not come back on this case.

“Fauda” in the daily life of  IDF officers

For the first time, an Israeli series shows the lives of members of the Israeli army infiltrated into the Occupied Territories. Tour largely in Arabic, it presents the Palestinian fighters from an unusual day.

A warning before all twelve episodes of Fauda saying it is “a work of fiction, based on any real facts.” Which, of course, can only encourage viewers not to believe in a word and seek truth bursts into what is told him. In Arabic, fauda means “chaos”.

Prior to 1987, the term designated generally the situation prevailing in the occupied territories, until it degenerates into Intifada. But it is also the code name used by members of a certain Israeli undercover unit operating in the Occupied Territories when they want to report that their cover is blown and must either take action or flee immediately. Which in both cases means that they have kits to hell. It is well known, at least since the mid-1990s, that to maintain control of the Palestinian territories, the Israeli army multiplies covert operations.

Volunteers who served in elite units and willing to pose as Arabs – with the false biography, the alias, language, customs and physical appearance must be adopted for this – go live in the West Bank and infiltrating the population to gather first-hand information and deliver a mortal wound if necessary. Of course, these units are anything but secret, since their existence is openly acknowledged, but they definitely fall into the category of those things that are said “secret” by the nature of their activities. It is on this fertile ground has germinated the first season of Fauda, ​​which just ended on Israel’s Channel Yes Action. A second season is in preparation and negotiations are underway for the series to be broadcast as it is – not in the form of remakes – the US and Europe. Do not be discourage to look for fear of not able to follow the dialogue in Hebrew.

Anyway, since more than half of the characters are Palestinian and that the story takes place in the Palestinian Territories, most of the plot takes place in Arabic with subtitles in Hebrew. This is also where one of the singularities of the series in the Israeli television offer: for the first time, we showed the Israeli viewer, and an hour of prime time, not too distorted mirror of its reality in a language which, unfortunately, is perceived as threatening by many Israeli ears.

A reality that most Israelis prefer not to see

Two men are behind the project: Lior Raz (main writer and character of the series) and Avi Issacharoff (a former journalist with Haaretz, which specializes in Palestinian issues). They each have a sacred city to counter double and triple lives led on the other side of the border: Raz because he was part of one of these famous secret and Issacharoff units because he reported to the newspaper of the extremely confused situation prevailing in this part of the world. They say they wanted to describe this reality that most Israelis prefer not to get up close and, instead of simplifying it with a picture in black and white, show it as it is – composed of more than fifty shades of too human gray, which can explode at any time in the most crimson. Fauda tells the story of a stalker. The leader of a secret unit operating in Palestine (Doron Kavillio, played by Raz) retired after murdering a Hamas wicked big, Abu Ahmed, aka “Panther”.

He leads a modest life of wine, surrounded by his family. When he learned that the Panther is still alive and is planning a new wave of atrocities against Israelis, Doron succumb to the temptation to resume service and murder a second time this enemy, he now sees as his enemy staff. This, in theory at least, was a national security cases with kind and villains – our camp is “good” and “the other”, Palestinian, “the villain” – eventually became a complex history involving stage characters who are all, in their way, very human, that is very imperfect.

Compassion

There are members of the team Doron – a group of close-knit men – and their families and loved ones, responsible for providing all the expected emotional charge. There is a woman, as it should be in any good action series: Nurit, played by Rona-Lee Shimon. There Palestinians with their rival political factions and their family ties, especially intertwined that some of the characters [terrorist hunted down by Israel] live underground and constant fear. Waves of personal and political confusion pounding incessantly from one side or the other, and the viewer is constantly tempted to identify with the side that is not his.

This series does not attempt to present a vision “balanced” of the conflict. It assumes – rightly, in my view – that for Israeli viewers, the chips are in favor of the Israeli team. In turn, the viewer can sometimes feel that the Palestinian side of the story is presented with an extra dose of compassion and understanding. But if that is the case, this is a belated recovery and much needed: it is high time that the Israelis concede that the other side also, there are human beings. Fauda was shot in Israel in Hebrew and Arabic, and with a team of Israeli and Palestinian actors during the war last summer in Gaza.

The American series production teams Tyrant and Dig [both created by Israeli Gideon Raff, the showrunner of Homeland], which also take place in the region, fled. But of Fauda continued to run in Kafr Qassem [a village in central Israel, theater in 1956 of a massacre of Israeli Arabs by the Israeli border police] as to show that, although it says “fictional” story very well told and brilliantly played extremely compelling and terribly depressing, is based on real facts and painful. And while we watch, hell continues to lash around us.

An event series

Released in February and May 2015, Fauda created the event on Israeli television. Never a program had attracted so many viewers to Yes Action fifteen years that the chain exists. “Magazines weekend dedicated their covers to the series of characters. The various twists of the plot, including anything that may compose the nightmares of the Middle East, suicide bombings in the negotiations on the hostages, were the subject of heated debate around the water coolers in businesses or in the bars in the country, “says Foreign Policy. The American magazine echoes rave reactions from the Israeli press: “‘Fauda is more than a television event, it is also a political event,” wrote the daily Yediot Aharonot:’ this program is that a successful series. It is genuine, honest and painful. ‘The series was praised by almost all TV critics in the country. Even the Israel Hayom, a pro-Netanyahu newspaper, praised production of relevant, accurate and exciting. ‘”Viewers, meanwhile, were likely to react on the Facebook page of the series. Among them Israeli Arabs and some Palestinians.

 Suriname is a small country on the northeastern coast of South America. It’s defined by vast swaths of tropical rainforest, Dutch colonial-era architecture and a melting-pot culture

According to preliminary results, the National Democratic Party won  on the 25^th of May, the absolute majority in the Surinamese parliament, with 27 of 51 seats in contention. the dictator presiding former Dutch colony should be re-elected without difficulty to a second term by the new Parliament.

On October 13, 2015 Desi Delano Bouterse President will celebrate its 70 years, a few months after the elections in Suriname, which took place on May 25 The National Assembly will renew its 51 seats [according to preliminary results, the party won 27 seats] and will elect the President of the Republic in July or August. The Megacombinatie, Bouterse coalition [led by his National Democratic Party (NDP)], is likely to win, and his second term as president seems guaranteed.

In legal terms, it has not to worry. His conviction for drug trafficking will soon be prescribed.  The Arms trafficking which he is suspected was never really proven. For the massacres in December 1982, he cannot be judged because of the amnesty law of 2012 and its presidential immunity.

Finally, the case of the slaughter of Moiwana [39 innocent civilians killed by troops of Bouterse] in 1986 during the civil war, has not been fully elucidated. It alone can put a spoke in the wheels is Chandrikapersad Santokhi, the former police chief and former Minister of Justice. He leads V7, a coalition of traditional parties and factions. Bouterse adopts towards Santokhi condescending and sometimes threatening attitude. And when the president makes playing air I Shot the Sheriff at a gathering, everyone knows who the referred “Sheriff” is the nickname of Santokhi.

A friendly dictator

Nina Jurna was RTL’s correspondent in Paramaribo [the capital of Suriname] for ten years. She had extensive talks with Bouterse in 2005 in his property in the south of the country, Broko Braka. As the subtitle of his book, Desi Bouterse is “a Surinamese reality”: we can fight it, but we can never get rid of.

According to Nina Jurna five factors explain this reality: Bouterse, himself Indian and Creole, is one of the few people able to overcome ethnic divisions among Javanese, Indians, Creoles and natives. The NDP and Megacombinatie, with whom he won the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2010 are genuine multicultural parties. Moreover, Bouterse has no equal playing on populist tendencies Surinamese, and arms of honor towards the Netherlands [former colonizer] make it always score points.

In addition, Bouterse knows the poor neighborhoods of Paramaribo and remote areas of Suriname better than other politicians. Finally, any election rally or gathering on the lawn in front of his headquarters is a party where there is enough food and drink, with music and dance. Bouterse is a friendly dictator uncle that everybody would like to have. If he had not been in politics, he would have pierced as a humorist, according to Nina Jurna. Certainly it has committed atrocities. Journalist juxtaposes these crimes and the continuing popularity of Bouterse, but does not explain how these two realities are able to coexist.

“A missed opportunity”

“Behind all his friendliness, Suriname is a hard society where it’s every man for himself. There is no common idea for the future of the country. “Says the young historian Pepijn Reeser. He adds that Bouterse is both a product of colonialism – which explains his aversion to the Netherlands but also for corrupt politicians Surinamese – and “a missed opportunity”. He was a charismatic young and vigorous man who could have changed the Suriname sustainably after his coup of 25 February 1980. But he descended into violence and nepotism.

In the book, Pepijn Reeser analyzes the roles that Bouterse endorsed, the revolutionary dictator, the sponsor of the opportunist and commander of the accused to the statesman. Bouterse was an idealist who wanted to move towards national unity of his country and to end two evils Suriname: ethnic partition and corruption. More than twenty-five years later, the first has diminished, but not the second. Pepijn Reeser also discusses the strange period of the 1990s, where Bouterse, who was raised in the Catholic tradition, has suddenly taken a great religious fervor. Historians think he was not quite believe.

At the time, Bouterse was under the influence of the Protestant pastor of an evangelical commune, Steve Meye, which played a role in the election of his protege in 1996 [unsuccessfully]. Three years later, Bouterse has confessed his sins during a mass rally of the Church and from that day he preaches reconciliation. This did not last very long. Bouterse lose the sense of proportion when in 1999, a Good Friday, the president of Suriname Jules Wijdenbosch revokes his position as state councilor. Bouterse feels “crucified”. In November of the same year, evangelical chain portrays the new believer, who calls himself “master” by the Surinamese. “But who is the master of Bouterse?” Asked the presenter. “My younger daughter: I can not refuse him anything,” jokes Bouterse. “But I mean religiously,” insisted the presenter. Bouterse resumed his seriousness, “Oh, that’s what you mean. Seen like that, my master is God, of course.

“Friends and comrades! ” the Municipal Theater of Chelmsford (Essex) was a stage where a lot of artists performed , but they probably never used  this formula. ” Comrades! “: You do not even need to whisper that word! “Exults one of thundering unionists that heated the crowd. September 2, the 87th campaign meeting of Jeremy Corbyn, 66, MP from the British radical left, completely unknown until this summer,  was elected Saturday the head of the Labor Party last year in September 2015.

At first sight, difficult to understand why this  fair speaker that looks like a bearded old teacher, this vegetarian activist, pacifist and pro-Palestinian triggered such  enthusiasm in the youth, a “corbynmania”  that stunned and appalled that the media which are still working on it to decrypt it. Why this old-school meeting contrary to all rules of communications , where the speakers speak behind a simple table, without sounds systems or live tweets equipement and without catchy expressions such as “Yes We Can”. This provokes an energy that is disturbing the Establishment that is taking place in the Labor Party, and that might provokes a Seism in British Politics such as Podemos in Spain or Syriza in Greece.

Even the British Tabloids, usually so efficient  to spy in private sphere of politics didn’t found anything interesting or catchy.

But the speeches of Jeremy are so full of hope and so radically different from the mix of insipid , formatted and conformist speeches of its three competitors that the inflamed reactions from its listeners make sense. “He believes in what he says, it is authentic, and it changes the politicians in Westminster, marvels Brendon Tiwary, 19, a student of history and politics, forgetting that Jeremy Corby is now a Parliament Member for now thirty two years. He listens to people , and nothing is more important in politics.”

Left Wing of the Left Wing

What are this man ideas, this man who keep being reelected by the popular electors of Islington, in the North of London, now for 32 years in a row? Corbyin is saying that the drastic austerity policy conducted since 2010 by the Conservatices and supported by most of the Labor Party, amounts to ” charging the poorest , brutalize them, to punish them’ and that ‘ there is an alternative to this important budgetary cuts”, that there is ” another way to treat economic affairs”. That the ” Employees are not responsible for the crisis” and  that there is a need to stop massive cuts in social benefits by increase taxes for the rich and invest in the industry and infrastructures. 

Jeremy Corbyn calls for the renationalization of the railways, for a large national program of social housing construction, to “restore safety nets against the scandal of poverty”. A shock in a country where since Margaret Thatcher, the State disengagement movement never stopped.  “We must regain the vision that had our parents after 1945, recreate their vision of a more just society. ” he declared at the end of his speech.

Child of the immediate postwar period, Jeremy Corbyn is a self-taught activist who stopped studying at 18 years. Contradicting its competitors for the Labor primary, from Cambridge or the London School of Economics. The books – classics of socialist literature as Robert Tressell and George Orwell – that his mother, a professor of math, peace activist, offered him, prompted him to do politics. “I have few degrees, but I never stopped to devour books, he says before the meeting. I go through life with the conviction that the people I meet can teach me something. ”

He attended classes in the struggle against the Vietnam War and apartheid, and in solidarity with Latin America; he was street educator in Jamaica, union representative, Councillor and MP in 1983, just after joining the Socialist Campaign Group, founded by Tony Benn, then leader of the left wing of Labor. He never directed anything, and the only distinction he has received is the “Medal worst dressed MP” mock his critics who consider it “totally ineligible” as Prime Minister.

Its almost monastic appearance – white goatee, shirt open over a T-shirt, leather sandals back – and lifestyle – no cars or alcohol, the lowest budget of Westminster – is consistent with the cliché of the old leftist ascetic. And when a reporter asked him a scornful tone: “Really, you think you can lead the Labor Party? “He replies calmly, almost amused, but forgetting that he voted 533 times against the positions of his party since the election of Tony Blaire in 1997.” I’m Labor, I am a socialist. I spent all my life in this party, I have always been accustomed to speak on his behalf. “Alex Burghart, who was his Conservative opponent resolved in the parliamentary elections of May, credited him with at least one virtue: perseverance. “It takes nerves of steel to hold the same ideas for thirty years while everyone around you telling you that you are mistaken. ”

Questions about his person are annoying  Jeremy Corbyn, who is only “us” in meeting campaigns . He does not conduct an individual adventure, but to challenge the Labor route by building a movement from the base, he assures the chagrin of fellow members he intends to stop the rule if elected. “I wish that Labor becomes an open house where people want to come to make their voices heard, instead of waiting for all of a omniscient leader”, the favorite dream of the primary.

“Politicians are all the same, but since Corbyn, we now have a different opinion” Josephine Pickart talking on behalf of British Students

Even the tabloid press, very effective to dig into private lives, did not find much to put in their mouths. Three marriages and two divorces “that surprise, given the seriousness of his behavior,” thinks he can write the Daily Mail, which published the photo of his current wife, Laura Alvarez, a twenty-year-old Mexican younger than him “The important coffee fair “of his country. But especially popular newspapers accuse Jeremy Corbyn to be anti-monarchist, for bringing a red blazer during the eulogy of the Queen Mother in 2002 and have maintained contacts with Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams before the Irish 1998 Peace Accords.

The bookies did not give his chances expensive – 200 against 1 – when, in mid-June to run for the Labor leadership obtained at the last second the thirty-five deputies sponsorship required. Most elected officials had checked his name just to give an image of openness and weaken their opponents. But the alibi candidate of the left wing, accustomed to ridiculous scores and regarded the party as a has-been total took off, to everyone’s surprise, in July to become the favorite polls.

The new designation system that has deprived the parliamentary rule and allowed their supporters to vote, upon payment of 3 pounds (4.10 Euros), opened the ballot by 554,000 people. Among the “voters to 3 pounds,” a crowd of young people, often students, disgusted with politics and abstainers, attracted by the different and radical sixties speech activist. In the meetings, this new generation blends with union activists whose main organizations have dubbed Corbyn and fund essentially his campaign to the extreme left militants and old party members who were removed from the refocusing operated in 1994 by Tony Blair with his New Labor.

Radical positions

“The irony is that Jeremy Corbyn is as a new leader as he is a survivor of years before Blair, when leaders of the Labor preferred to defend the principles of hardcore socialism, rather than win elections . This position led to Thatcher’s triumph in 1979. He has not changed since then, said Steven Fielding,
professor of political history at the University of Nottingham. Today, that Labor lost the election in May because they have seduced the voters of the center, yet Corbyn attributed the defeat to quitting socialist project. He is the champion of “old Labor”. “

No doubt the radical positions of the Labour monk will detonate in the British political landscape marked by moderation, consensus on austerity and reverence toward the army. Jeremy Corbyn chairs the Stop the War Committee, which led the fight against the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. “Yet another tragedy,” he said in 2011 about the killing of Osama bin Laden in a US raid, regretting that he had not been tried. It does not mean that Tony Blair had to answer in court for war crimes in connection with the invasion of Iraq.

Jeremy Corbyn is also in favor of unilateral nuclear disarmament, while the British Parliament to vote in 2016 to renew credits deterrent Trident. He will not campaign out of the EU, but denounces the economic liberalism and Europe should show little enthusiasm to support a yes vote on maintaining the Union advocated by David Cameron.

About Ukraine, the member also criticized the “excessive and obsessive expansion of NATO since 1990,” considering that the military organization “should have died with the Cold War.” “Clearly, it’s an extremist, totally disconnected from the aspirations of our citizens,” Alex Burghart slice. “His election would be excellent news for the continued rule of the Tories. But Jeremy would cause great harm to the country and would not last long at the head of Labor, “he said, before his election.

Accident-lived linked to a primary or uncontrolled turning of the British political history? Jeremy Corbyn shakes the landscape marked by the defeat of Labor in the parliamentary in May, said the “all-austerity” does not fall under the need and gives hope to some disappointed with politics. “My friends said,” Politicians are all the same. “Since Corbyn, they changed their minds: he is the only one not to indict the unemployed and immigrants, to show that austerity, the contracts at midnight and poverty are not destiny, “says Josephine Pickard, a history student of 22 years, which distributes badges and round red beer” Cheers Jeremy! “To the input of Chelmsford meeting. The theater of the small town of Essex with red velvet curtains will take part in the ascension of the most leftist leader that Labor will be given since the 1930s.

Saudi Arabia has launched on the night of Wednesday to Thursday a military operation in Yemen, called “firmness Storm”. What are the reasons for which Riyadh has launched this intervention, with which partners and what form does it take?

Why Riyadh intervenes in Yemen?

In recent weeks, the crisis escalated: the Shiite militia Houthis -which has seized the capital and power since September- conducted quick advance in the direction of Aden, prompting President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, recognized by the international community and supported by the Sunni Saudi Arabia, to call for foreign military intervention.

Riyadh sees in  this crisis one more sign of the attempt of Iran -Shiite- to regain control over the region (although Tehran has denied any role in the crisis), while its influence is already growing in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and within the Shiite protests in Bahrain. In addition, Saudi Arabia had to act to prevent the strategic Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden,  to passes under the control of the Houthis. Riyadh also argues that the Houthi militia “control or could control ballistic missiles, heavy weapons and an air force.”

Who is involved?

This military operation involves “more than 10 countries,” according to Riyadh. Among them, all the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) except Oman. The Saudis have announced that Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Pakistan –Strategic Allies of Riyad – but also Sudan – a traditional ally of Iran-volunteered.

Jordan and Egypt have confirmed their participation, unlike Morocco, which only expressed his “support”, and Pakistan, who is reviewing the application to take part in the coalition. Moreover, the United States, Yemeni President Hadi’s  allies in the fight against the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) announced providing support in logistics and intelligence.

What form does it take?

Saudi Arabia has massed forces (anti-aircraft systems, artillery, …) on its border with Yemen, before launching its warplanes to bomb several positions held by the Houthis in the capital Sanaa but also Al-Anad in the south of the country. According to Al-Arabiya, Ryad mobilized 150,000 soldiers and 10 fighters jets while the United Arab Emirates pledged 30 warplanes, Bahrain and Kuwait 15 aircraft each, Qatar 10. Jordan say it will engage 6 aircrafts.

In addition, four Egyptian warships entered Thursday in the Suez Canal en route to the Gulf of Aden, strategically important because of its location in the south of the Red Sea, and that they will “protect”. A Jordanian official source, however, refused to comment on media reports about a possible ground invasion.

How is it perceived?

Iran has of course condemned the military operation, saying it was “losing the chances of a peaceful resolution of internal differences in Yemen.” Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, denounced a “dangerous step” that will only ” cause more death,” “will create more tension in the region and will bring no benefit to any country.” He added that the operation was likely to make the game of AQAP jihadists and Islamic State group, which has claimed its first attack in Yemen, which cause more than 140 casualties Friday in mosques in Sana’a.[trx_googlemap address=”Sana’a Yemen” zoom=”16″ style=”default” width=”100%” height=”240″]

The progress of Houthis rebel troops  toward the city of Aden in the south of Yemen , has definitely plunged the country in a civil war , fueled by the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with the Islamic State  as a new disruptive agent.

Yemen is experiencing a chaotic situation for many months and the situation is getting worse. Wednesday , March 25 , Houthis rebel troops which are installed in the capital Sana’a, were pursuing their advance toward the south and the city of Aden , where the legitimate president Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi was exfiltrated. Aerials raid were taking place against the presidential palace.

The Houthis , have also seized after limited fighting , the air base of Al-Anad , deserted since last week by US troops stationed there. Which now puts them at least thirty kilometers of Aden.

However , since the very deadly attacks into two Shiites mosques in Sana’a last week, Yemen has to deal with a new disruptive agent , the organization of the Islamic State (IS), which claimed the attacks.

YoungDiplomats sum up what is actually at stake in Yemen

The struggle between Houthis and President Hadi.

Since former president of Yemen , Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced to give up his seat in 2012, the current president recognized by the United Nations , Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi , under pressure from the Houthis , a Shia Zaidi located at the North of the country , close to the Saudi Border. The rise of the Houthis , who took the capital Sanaa in September and are now moving towards the South , where has fled the president Hadi, is notably supported by the former President Saleh. Far from having given up on the power , the latter plays a game disorder through its networks within the army, many of whom have remained loyal.

“The advance of Houthis to the south suggests that the President does not possess important military forces loyal to him. There is also a high probability according to many experts interviewed by YoungDiplomats , that an important part of the Army joined the Houthis side. The reasons for that is that the army was already largely under the control of former president Saleh , and from the moment he decided to support the Houthi movement, he brought with him the majority of the army. A good example of that is that  we saw an aerial bombing of presidential palace by the Houthis , however all the airforce is supposed to be detained by Yemen’s Army.

But by pushing his personal interests , the former president Saleh added a religious dimension to his struggle between Zaidi Shiite Houthis and President Hadi , a Sunni, like the majority of its population. “ While the religious issue was not from first importance in Yemen , it has gradually become so, . since the transition and since Ali Abdullah Saleh has rediscovered its Zaidi identity.  Saleh played a dangerous game since the end of 2012 , and now Yemen found himself in the middle of a polarization that did not exist until now, and this polarization is now fueled by foreign actors , that see in divided Yemen , a good way to expand their sphere of influence.

Saudi Arabia, Iran , and the regional leadership

The fragility of Yemen’s government has indeed fueled the tensions and allowed Saudi Arabia and Iran to exercise on a new playground their regional rivalry. If former President Saleh has tried to take advantage of the sectarian issue, the confrontation , less and less discrete between the Saudis and Iranian, Sunnis and Shiites powers, on Yemeni soil was indeed placed at the center of the chessboard.

In the background there are two powers that emerge and are in a shadow war : Saudi Arabia , which supports the legitimate president Hadi refuge in Aden , then Shiite Iran , which supports the Houthis minority that is becoming more and more powerful in the North of Yemen , close to the Saudi border.  Saudis are afraid that these Houthis became an Iranian proxy-such as Hezbollah in Lebanon- that could potentially endanger the Security of the Saudi Kingdom. Now it is clear that it is potentially devastating because it covers the regional conflict between Sunni and Shiites.

For Iran , it is to extend its influence. For a week there are 14 aircrafts per day ranging from Tehran to Sana’a while where is not normally a regular connection between these two cities , according to latest reports. Iran came into play by taking advantage of the situation and is in the process of forming a base that will look like its bases in Southern Lebanon.

But the most important point is of course the Strait of Bad el-Mandeb , where the bulk of word trade passes and much of the oil , before returning to the Suez Canal and Europe. This strait is strategic and is clearly at the heart of Iran’s maritime ambitions to settle in the region to show that they are not only confined to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could therefore have two straits , thus becoming an essential partner for the world.

But the Saudi Kingdom has no intention of leaving Tehran advance its objectives. Saudi Arabia has always considered that the security situation in Yemen was a Saudi internal affair. The Saudis have already massed troops on the border, and started aerial bombing of Houthis positions in Sana’a the 26^th of March 2015. They are ready for a border confrontation , knowing that in the other side of the border,  it is a Houthi stronghold.

Expansion of the Islamic State

To these internal and external tensions , there is also now the threat of the organization of the Islamic State. By hitting spectacularly , Friday 20^th of March , Shiites mosques of Sana’a , the Islamic State informed the world that after Ira, Syria and Libya, Yemen were becoming a new objective.

There was an aggregation that is operating slowly but surely in many territories, both in the Maghreb and in the Mashrik. We saw it in the events that happened in Tunisia , and also in Libya, where slowly but surely an Islamic terror is taking place, we see it in Libya, where the Islamic State already took over the 100k city of Dernaa. Somehow , Yemen is fast becoming a Libya bis”. In both cases , it’s failed states. This is extremely worrying for regional security and even internationally.

In Yemen, the Islamic State can rely on the frustration of the Sunni population , the majority in Yemen , which is angry against the takeover of Sana’a by the Houthis. The objectives of the organization of Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi is to annihilate the Zaidi Shiites , where the Houthis are coming from, while in the same time avoiding President Hadi to come back in power.

The choice of Yemen for Daesh is also highly symbolic vis-à-vis his rival. Indeed, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsulat (AQAP) is indeed the most active branch of Al-Qaida and has been significantly weakened in recent months by drone attacks by the United States. But surprisingly , there is a stimulating competition. These two terrorists groups are on two different records that do not vanish. One is traditionally attacking the West, the far enemy, while the other one goal is to expand its grip on the region”.

The country has practically entered into a civil war. Since the intervention of Saudi Arabia today , we can officially talk about a civil war. Yemen is  trapped into a vicious circle , and it is very hard to predict how they could get out of it. This is in the same time a civil war and a proxy war. These are two wars that fit into each other and give a totally chaotic configuration.

In a context of extreme tensions, both on the domestic scene and on the international stage, the Russian society is in shock, following the death of Boris Netmstov. To analyse the consequences for Russia YoungDiplomats scanned the reactions of the Moscovite press.

The Assassination on the night of 28^th Feburary, on a bridge in central Moscow, of the Kremlin’s opponent Boris Nemstov, 55, triggered an intense emotion in Russia. The day after the assassination , every newspapers ranging from the gouvernemental ones such as Rossiiskaia Gazera, to the most liberal ones such as Novaia Gazeta, put the murder of Nemtsov in the headlines of their newspapers. These was follows by mourning marches all across the capital and many cities of the Russian Federation.

Virtually , the entire assembly of the political spectrum expressed their stupor and their strong and indeniable condemnation of violence and crime , and personalities from all sides of political spectrum, lamended the loss of a man universally recognized as an extraordinary politician. They emphasized the fighting spirit and the perseverance, that he displayed since the beginning of his political career in the beginning of the 90’s , as a young governor of the region of Nizhny Novgorod and as a deputy prime minister under the presidency of Boris Yelstin ,the one of a liberal democracy-loving.

Yelstin even thought as him as his possible successor.

According to the chronichor of the popular daily Moskovsky Komsomolets, Mikhael Rostovsky, Netmstvo had never forgotten Yelstin’s words about “ the possibility to make him his heir”, and about Putin, which was considered “ as a kind of usurper “ for which he felt a certain jealousy”.

The simple mandate elect of the Yaroslavl region he had at the time of his assassination made us forget that he had almost reach the supreme power in his youth. Indeed  , as recalled by Moskovsky Komsomolets, “ it is now evolving on the outskirts of Russian political life, and was unlikely to return to the center”. However , no one in the country , had forgotten “his rebellious character , passionate and generous”.

Political Assassination

Russian liberal right is no longer represented in the Duma (Russian Parliament) since a long time, but it continues its political existence. At the head of the RPR- Parnas party and as a member of the Coordinating Council of the Russian opposition, Boris Nemtsov was implicated in all the protests acriss the country, and was repeatedly abused and even arrested by the authorities. Did it mean he felt his life was threatened?

The  opposition newspaper Novai Gazeta  believe so and published the same interview he granted in April 2014. “ I know they can kill me , he said it but they can not force me to shut up”. An Interview presented by the title as a “ testament”

“They” Killed him, but with what consequences for the country?  Questions the press. Whatever the reasons for this, this is “ a political assassination for the simple reason that Nemtsov was a political player in the opposition,” said the Nezavisimaya Gazeta. And Russian power is put on notice by the outside world “ to demonstrate that he is wrong when he questions the Moscow ability to conduct a proper investigation” A logical doubt, say the title. And not only because of the war of information that is taking place in Russian and in Western Europe around the Ukrainian Conflict , but also  because the Russian opposition is receiving heavy blows this last months from the Putin’s Government. “ how can we not see this murder as a logical step in the government logic, after condemening and throwing to jail other famous opponents such as Alexei Navalny and Serguei Oudalstov?”

An Attempt to destabilize the country

Nevertheless, the consequences will be severe. According to the newspaper Kommersant, “ the majority of political believe that the murder of Brois Nemstov is an attempt to destabilize the country”.  The pists that the investigation is covering cover an extremely large spectrum, according to the magazine the Kremlin Expert. They range from the support of Nemtsov to Charlie Hebdo, to his criticisms toward the Chechnyen leader Ramzan Kdyrov, to its implications in the Ukrainian conflict (because of his links to the Ukrainian President Petro Porochenko, but also because of its contacts with the Russians Separatists). According to the polititologue Evgueni Minchenko , quoted by the title, the Kremly did not for his part , had an interest in the death of Nemtsov , “because , for the Kremlin , Nemtsov was an opposition figure comprenhensible and comfortable , who choose legal ways to expose his point of views compared to his colleagues”.

“By depriving opposition of its leaders , the central power is putting himself in a difficult situation , is claiming the expert Nikolay Petrov quoted by Lanezavissimai Gazeta, because in case of confrontation , there might be no negociators, as Nemtsov could have been. And this would have created a situation of chas in case of heavy protests “. “ The first reactions of the power and of the political elite , measured and rational , give hope in the reducation of the degree of hatred and violence that was widespread in the Russian Society in recent times , is claiming the expert Igor Bounine in the same newspaper. And if this paradigm change , even a little, we could hope for an evolution of the political system, but this depends on only one person”.

The Agreement between Eurogroup and Greece summed up in 5 points :

Friday evening , the Eurogroup and Athena found an agreement which entails the prolongation of the support program until June, under the condition that Alexis Tsipras presents new measures on Monday. Explanations in 5 points 

• Germany got what it wanted… for now

“These last weeks , Germany insisted on the fact that she will not abandon the support program for Greece” recalls the Wall Street Journal. While the Greek Prime Minister , was first against the prolongation of this plan , he finally asked for an extension – which will last until June- and promised that he will respect the conditions.

• Athena should benefits from a greater indulgence

The Eurogroup will grant Greece a greater flexibility to attain its fiscal targets in 2015. Moreover ,   the Agreement does not impose to Athena to respect these same objectives for the following years. This aspect , was one of the will of Alexis Tsipras.

• The Agreement could collapse.

Monday, Athena would have to present to the Eurogroup , a list of reforms to respect the balance of its public finance. These reforms should be more or less similar to the one that the previous government engaged himself to pursue. Alexis Tsipras already announced that he wanted to cancel or modify some of those reforms, and among those reforms , the one he rejects totally is the one concerning the diminution of retirement pensions, which is one considered vital by the Eurogroup.

• Greek politicians could reject the Agreement

It seems that the agreement is conflicting with certain campaign promises of the Greek Prime Minister. With this agreement , Greece would indeed stay under the surveillance of the European Comission , of the IMF and of the European Central Bank , contrary to one of the major promise of Alexis Tsipras during his campaign.

• Greece will need more money

Given the fact that the Greek fiscal surplus , should be lower than expected in the coming years, Athena will need money. The Eurozone already announced that they were ready to reduce the interests rate of the funds they granted to Greece, but this will probably not be enough.

Ahmed Meiloud, researcher with Southwest Initiative for the Study of Middle East Conflicts

Although the Islamic State (IS) remains enigmatic, its past comportment gives an indication of what it would try in the near future. IS’s next move inside Iraq depends on its ability to garner the support of the other Sunni groups, with which it currently shares the goal of toppling Maliki.  Coordination between these forces to capture towns outside Baghdad has so far been mutually rewarding. But this honeymoon may not last. If IS takes its supra-national commitment seriously, and if – as a consequence – it fails to assuage the concerns of nationalist groups, such as the Men of Naqshabandiyya, then a coordinated attack on Baghdad may not be feasible.

In this case, the group’s short-term plan would be to defend its possessions in Iraq and focus on Syria, where it would play the tactic that is has so far mastered: watching the two sides bleed each other and moving in at the right moment to take the spoil. IS may also plan one or two high profile attacks on the Syrian army installations to dispel the rumour that it is supported by Assad. Simultaneously, it may carry out attacks against KSA through its branch in the Arabian peninsular. Of course, an American-Iranian (Saudi-backed) intervention would complicate the calculus of Iraqi Sunni groups and IS’s as well. In that case, IS would gain the PR campaign it has so far lost, even if it is forced at the same time to give up the Caliphate and return to the pickup trucks and low-scale jihad.

Christopher Davidson, Reader in Middle East Politics and Fellow at Durham University, and author of After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies 

Seeking ever rising legitimacy along with increased recruitment and donations, IS’ leadership seems well aware that their movement needs to keep securing territory and notching up new victories.  Although likely better at it than their opponents, the movement is thus unlikely to want to get bogged down in lengthy, stalemate urban battles.  Instead it may keep a preference for the blitzkreig-like battles they have been so successful with over the past few months.  In this light, although most of IS’ main targets thus far have supposedly been the Shia-dominated, Iran-aligned ‘resistance axis’ governments of Assad and Maliki, IS may well accept that the respective heartlands around Damascus and Baghdad will be difficult and costly conquests, not least because Baghdad would see IS pitted against battle-tested Shia militias, rather than the quick-to-concede regular Iraqi army.  Thus, while these Shia ‘rump states’ will likely remain on the books as official IS targets, it’s likely that its leadership will also concentrate on other, ‘easy’ territories – namely those with sympathetic local Sunni populations and militias ready to facilitate ISIS occupation, and eventually those with IS-friendly internal ‘fifth columns’ that can be expected to rise up within cities when IS’ ‘army’ reach their borders.

Sami Ramadani, Iraqi-born sociology lecturer, writer on Iraq and Middle East current affairs and steering committee member of Stop the War Coalition

The rise of IS and other violently sectarian organisations in the Middle East is one of the bloody consequences of many interrelated factors.

First, arming and training Bin Laden and Taliban forces in Afghanistan/Pakistan in the 1980’s. Second, the 2001 US-led invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. Third, the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq, which led to the destruction of the country’s state and social institutions and the emergence of terrorist organisations. The US operated death squads and formed six secret militias to fight the resistance in Iraq. Fourth, the NATO bombing of Libya and support for former Guantanamo detainees and militias there. Fifth, the NATO members’ and Gulf rulers’ arming and funding of Syrian armed sectarian organisations through NATO’s Turkey. Qatar alone spent $3 billion within two years (2011-13). Sixth, the US, Saudi and Qatari efforts to isolate and encircle Iran through a sectarian propaganda war since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Seventh, a largesse of countless billions of petrodollars expended by the Saudi and Qatari ruling Wahhabi families, over many decades, to spread the violently sectarian Wahhabi cult throughout the Muslim world and Europe. Eighth, the emergence of an alliance, at least de facto and temporary, in Iraq between ISIS, Barzani’s powerful Kurdish militias and former Saddamist officers and the Ba’ath party, led by Saddam’s former deputy, Izzet al-Douri.

The vast majority on Sunni Muslims reject the Wahhabi cult, which goes against the traditions of nearly all Muslim countries. In Iraq in the 1920’s Shia and Sunni leading clergy united to expel Wahhabis coming into Iraq from the Arabian peninsula.

What possible outcome for the Syrian Civil War

• More likely the country will break up in parts , Kurdish in the North, Alawite on the Coast, Sunni in the Middle. This will have the inconvenient to break the Shiites axis.
• Also another implication will be that this would be the first step to the creation for an autonomous Kurdish State
• Second hypothesis : there is a stalemate and nobody wins, the situation continues for dozens of years until someone break up (most likely the Alawites Forces) in this case there will be for sure a phenomenon of somalization and breaking up in pars.
• Second hypothesis, The Assad regime destroys all resistance after years of fierce fighting. Thanks to the continual supply of arms and heavy weapons from Iran and Russian , and thanks for getting under the Iranian Nuclear Umbrella, any foreign intervention in Syria became impossible. Islamic State was defeated by a Western coalition,  therefore the regime just had to focus on AL Nusra front, after fierce fighting they defeated them, and deafeated the Free Syrian army factions was easy given their larck of unity and coordination. The country is devastated , the population demoralized, the ex rebels and their family on the run or keeping a low profile. Bashar is the new master of the country. The axis with Iran is reformed , the Islamist of Al Nusra and Islamic States flee to their homeland or to the neighboring countries , feeding instability in Lebanon and fierce fighting oppose Hezbollah to these Sunni Islamist, Lebanon is on the brink on a Civil War again.
• Third hypothesis , the ongoing EU sanctions on Russian and Iran affect these countries abilities to supply weapons and resources to Al Assad Army. The Price of oil who went up again gave Gulf countries more latitude to supply the Rebels. Slowly and slowly the Rebels are gaining ground in the periphery, in Alep First, where an Islamic Front combined of Islamic State,Al Nusra gain the control of the city after months of fierce fighting , the loyal army , on the run , because of the lack of ammunition. Then the Rebels instead of attacking big cities cut the road between Lattaquie and Damascus , the Army regime is cut in 2 , and without proper support they loose the battle. Bashar Al Assad is killed during a public apparition by a kamikaze explosion. Few days after , an important Shiite leader met the representants of the main Islamic Rebels factions to negotiate an agreement concerning the fate of the Alawis remaining on the coastline. An Agreement is found , and few days after , a National Transition Council funded by Qatar and Saudi Arabia , take place, the Free Syrian Army which saw most of its fighters rally Al Nusra or other Islamic factions during the war , is not part of it. Sharia is declared, and the Islamic Republic of Al Shams is born. However , there is internatl fighting growing and growing in the North , between the Islamic State, well implanted in Raqqa , and the Al Nusra Front which control the rest of Syria. The Alawites keeps a low profile, and do have to pay the Jizrya , the taxes for the minorities , and their surviving is only due because Iran is threating to intervene militarilu in the Islamic Republic of Al Shams if any harm is done to the Shiia Syrians.

In Any cases , the lack of Unitiy of the Rebels and their extreme disparity, will cause evidently a clash sooner or later , especially between the secular pro-democracy, western backed, Free Syrian Army , and the Islamic front composed of Al Nusra and the Islmic State , whom their goal is to install a regime based on Sharia.

However the regime also do have a weakness. Its weakness is that it is entirely based on the image of Bashar Al Assad , if Al Assad dies, there will be a huge demotivation in the loyalist forces , and it is likely that their will be fighting to know whom its successor is.

However the most important factor , would be to know how foreign nations will continue to support their side. Will Iran,Hezbillah and Russia continue to aid forever Syria? Will the FSA  receive serious backing from the US or any western countries? Will the Gulf States pursue their financial backing of the Islamist Rebels. Who will blink first?

Also it is really important , that whatever the outcome is , the presence of many Islamist, a lot of them foreigners , combat-experienced , will probably provokes regional instability across the region , especially in Lebanon.