What possible outcome for the Syrian Civil War
- More likely the country will break up in parts , Kurdish in the North, Alawite on the Coast, Sunni in the Middle. This will have the inconvenient to break the Shiites axis.
- Also another implication will be that this would be the first step to the creation for an autonomous Kurdish State
- Second hypothesis : there is a stalemate and nobody wins, the situation continues for dozens of years until someone break up (most likely the Alawites Forces) in this case there will be for sure a phenomenon of somalization and breaking up in pars.
- Second hypothesis, The Assad regime destroys all resistance after years of fierce fighting. Thanks to the continual supply of arms and heavy weapons from Iran and Russian , and thanks for getting under the Iranian Nuclear Umbrella, any foreign intervention in Syria became impossible. Islamic State was defeated by a Western coalition, therefore the regime just had to focus on AL Nusra front, after fierce fighting they defeated them, and deafeated the Free Syrian army factions was easy given their larck of unity and coordination. The country is devastated , the population demoralized, the ex rebels and their family on the run or keeping a low profile. Bashar is the new master of the country. The axis with Iran is reformed , the Islamist of Al Nusra and Islamic States flee to their homeland or to the neighboring countries , feeding instability in Lebanon and fierce fighting oppose Hezbollah to these Sunni Islamist, Lebanon is on the brink on a Civil War again.
- Third hypothesis , the ongoing EU sanctions on Russian and Iran affect these countries abilities to supply weapons and resources to Al Assad Army. The Price of oil who went up again gave Gulf countries more latitude to supply the Rebels. Slowly and slowly the Rebels are gaining ground in the periphery, in Alep First, where an Islamic Front combined of Islamic State,Al Nusra gain the control of the city after months of fierce fighting , the loyal army , on the run , because of the lack of ammunition. Then the Rebels instead of attacking big cities cut the road between Lattaquie and Damascus , the Army regime is cut in 2 , and without proper support they loose the battle. Bashar Al Assad is killed during a public apparition by a kamikaze explosion. Few days after , an important Shiite leader met the representants of the main Islamic Rebels factions to negotiate an agreement concerning the fate of the Alawis remaining on the coastline. An Agreement is found , and few days after , a National Transition Council funded by Qatar and Saudi Arabia , take place, the Free Syrian Army which saw most of its fighters rally Al Nusra or other Islamic factions during the war , is not part of it. Sharia is declared, and the Islamic Republic of Al Shams is born. However , there is internatl fighting growing and growing in the North , between the Islamic State, well implanted in Raqqa , and the Al Nusra Front which control the rest of Syria. The Alawites keeps a low profile, and do have to pay the Jizrya , the taxes for the minorities , and their surviving is only due because Iran is threating to intervene militarilu in the Islamic Republic of Al Shams if any harm is done to the Shiia Syrians.
In Any cases , the lack of Unitiy of the Rebels and their extreme disparity, will cause evidently a clash sooner or later , especially between the secular pro-democracy, western backed, Free Syrian Army , and the Islamic front composed of Al Nusra and the Islmic State , whom their goal is to install a regime based on Sharia.
However the regime also do have a weakness. Its weakness is that it is entirely based on the image of Bashar Al Assad , if Al Assad dies, there will be a huge demotivation in the loyalist forces , and it is likely that their will be fighting to know whom its successor is.
However the most important factor , would be to know how foreign nations will continue to support their side. Will Iran,Hezbillah and Russia continue to aid forever Syria? Will the FSA receive serious backing from the US or any western countries? Will the Gulf States pursue their financial backing of the Islamist Rebels. Who will blink first?
Also it is really important , that whatever the outcome is , the presence of many Islamist, a lot of them foreigners , combat-experienced , will probably provokes regional instability across the region , especially in Lebanon.