Young Diplomats

This October, Turkey’s first ever drilling vessel was dispatched 60 nautical miles off Antalya. The main purpose of the expedition was to look for potential hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. While giving an official statement, Turkish energy minister Fatih Donmez emphasized that Turkey will ensure its vessel has ”a free access so no one can harass it”.

Given that Ankara has disputed Cyprus’s right to exploit natural resource off its coast, the latest developments have been a source of concern for Cyprus. An ongoing dispute between the two countries relates to different viewpoints on delineation of maritime jurisdiction zones. Turkey claims that part of Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) lies within its continental shelf, while Greece has also based its claims on the continental shelf in relation to Turkey. Furthermore, Turkey accused Cyprus of not taking into a consideration the rights of Turkish Cypriots who live in the north of the island.

The region in which Turkey wants to start the drilling is considered to be an important hotspot. It is believed that rich hydrocarbon reserves lie under the sea near Cyprus and it attracted the interest from some of the biggest international companies. An exploration vessel of the Italian energy giant Eni has been blocked twice the Turkish Navy, while ExxonMobil began drilling for gas near the coast of Cyprus in November. At the same time, Ankara warned against exploration because this means ‘’ignoring the rights of the Turkish Cypriot people.’’ Turkey, which recognizes the northern Turkish Cypriot government and does not have diplomatic relations with Cyprus, claims that part of Cyprus’s offshore area falls under the jurisdiction of Turkish Cypriots or Turkey. For a long period of time, there were also tensions between Turkey and Greece over jurisdiction and over hydrocarbon exploration in the area. Not so long ago, there was a confrontation between a Greek frigate Nikiforos Fokas and Turkish survey vessel Barbaros, where the latter had to be escorted by Turkish warships since it was conducting seismic research on the segment of the Greek continental shelf.

This country is one of the most energy-hungry countries in the world. According to the latest data, it is second in the world, right after China. Turkey is also the country which is largely dependent on oil and gas imports from Russia (50 per cent), Iran (16 per cent) and Azerbaijan (12 per cent). Given its position, Turkey could become strategically important hub, where Russian gas could go to the Europe through Turkey. The main reason for their engagement in extensive drilling in the Mediterranean is to become less-reliant on energy from the other countries. Additionally, Turkey invests in nuclear power plants, renewable sources of energy and coal plants.

One of the ways the issue could be resolved is to either encourage the unification of Cyprus, which reached a stalemate after years of unsuccessful talks, or to make permanent separation. Resolving internal issues in Cyprus could significantly help them resolve their naval dispute with Turkey that already promised to build additional vessels. On the contrary side, it is in Turkey’s interest to successfully begin their drilling efforts in order to diversify their sources of oil and gas. Even though the findings in the Mediterranean are not huge or ‘’game changer’’, they can help Turkey build an image of strategic hub for the flow of energy from Asia to Europe.

Given that Ankara has disputed Cyprus’s right to exploit natural resource off its coast, the latest developments have been a source of concern for Cyprus. An ongoing dispute between the two countries relates to different viewpoints on delineation of maritime jurisdiction zones. Turkey claims that part of Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) lies within its continental shelf, while Greece has also based its claims on the continental shelf in relation to Turkey. Furthermore, Ankara accused Cyprus of not taking into a consideration the rights of Turkish Cypriots who live in the north of the island.

The region in which Turkey wants to start the drilling is considered to be an important hotspot. It is believed that rich hydrocarbon reserves lie under the sea near Cyprus and it attracted the interest from some of the biggest international companies. An exploration vessel of the Italian energy giant Eni has been blocked twice the Turkish Navy, while ExxonMobil began drilling for gas near the coast of Cyprus in November. At the same time, Turkey warned against exploration because this means ‘’ignoring the rights of the Turkish Cypriot people.’’ Turkey, which recognizes the northern Turkish Cypriot government and does not have diplomatic relations with Cyprus, claims that part of Cyprus’s offshore area falls under the jurisdiction of Turkish Cypriots or Turkey. For a long period of time, there were also tensions between Turkey and Greece over jurisdiction and over hydrocarbon exploration in the area. Not so long ago, there was a confrontation between a Greek frigate Nikiforos Fokas and Turkish survey vessel Barbaros, where the latter was conducting seismic research on the segment of the Greek continental shelf and eventually, had to be escorted by Turkish warships.

Turkey is one of the most energy-hungry countries in the world. According to the latest data, it is second in the world, right after China. Turkey is also the country which is largely dependent on oil and gas imports from Russia (50 per cent), Iran (16 per cent) and Azerbaijan (12 per cent). Given its position, Turkey could become strategically important hub, where Russian gas could go to the Europe through Turkey. The main reason for their engagement in extensive drilling in the Mediterranean is to become less-reliant on energy from the other countries. Additionally, Ankara invests in nuclear power plants, renewable sources of energy and coal plants.

Putin’s triumph

The Russian election on May 7 was a landmark event. Indeed, it once again enshrined Vladimir Putin’s omnipotence in his country. Putin scored 76.7% and is by far the favorite political personality in his country.

Towards a rapprochement between North and South Korea?

A purely symbolic rapprochement occurred between the two Koreas during the Olympic Games. Following this event, South Korean President Moong Jae-In visited Pyongyang in September 2018. The two presidents opened a joint liaison office near the border between the two countries. Is this combination of event a first step towards fusion ?

President Trump withdraws the US from the multilateral agreement

On May 9, 2018, Donald Trump decided to leave the Iranian nuclear agreement. He believes that his more or less positive experience with North Korea can lead to the same results in Iran. Sanctions against the Islamic Republic were subsequently reinstated.

Mid-term elections in the United States

Mid-term elections in the United States are very important to gauge the satisfaction of American voters. While many expected Donald Trump to be dispossessed of the Senate and House of Representatives, he instead maintained a Republican presence in the Senate. He showed that he was much more popular than many argues.

The Brexit towards its end?

Theresa May is in a political-judicial turmoil. The agreement prepared at the end of November may not be signed by British MEPs, and an exit without an agreement is envisaged. This could weaken the UK as well as the European Union.

The end of the Islamic State

Although the number of attacks attributed to Daesh doubled in 2018, the movement is definitely losing ground in Iraq and Syria. The group is becoming a terrorist group with similar methods to that of Al-Qaida.

Saudi Arabia: a completely tarnished image?

The hopes on the shoulders of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia were high! This facade of progressivism carried by MBS has collapsed. After the nameless violence of the war in Yemen, the world was appalled by the violence of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Transfer of the American Embassy to Jerusalem

The United States inaugurated the new American Embassy in Jerusalem in May. Donald Trump puts his foot in all areas of tension. He does things with his own way, forgetting the slowness and inconsistency of multilateralism, Barack Obama’s front.

Populism is taking over Europe?

Populist parties are gradually gaining importance in Europe. The various elections in Germany attest the rise of the Afd, the German far-right. The Italian M5S and the league have won the elections and new charismatic leaders are leading the European Union’s third largest economy. These new characters are in the same vein as Orban, Kurz and Kaczyński.

End of the wedding night between Macron and the French

The young and charismatic Emmanuel Macron seemed to be in tune with his people during the first months of his mandate. Nevertheless, the violent yellow jacket crisis, combined with the President’s various arrogant statements have cut off the ties between the President and the French.

Interview with Frederic Encel and Emmanuel Navon, two leading geopolitical experts at the Netanya Academic College, one of the leading academic college in Israel, that plays an important role in shaping French-Israeli relations. Netanya is indeed a city with an important population originally from France. The Academic College regularly holds Geopolitical conferences with important French figures.

Link to Frederic Encel website : http://www.fredericencel.org/

Link to Emmanuel Navon website : http://navon.com/

Dear Mr. Encel, what do you think of the “Yellow Vests” in France :

Macron is constantly criticized for being low on the polls but this is a wrong analysis. Macron is still popular, he still has the same amount of people that voted for him. The last poll published in LeMonde, he would still perform 25% if the elections were today. He did 26% at the last elections.

The influence of Netanyahu is only a secondary factor. The Primary factor dictating his Iranian Policy is Saudi Arabia.

 We recently saw that Trump’s Foreign Policy was under intense pressure in the mainstream media in the US. We often have the depiction of Donald Trump being crazy. What do you think, as an expert, of his Foreign Policy? Is it coherent?

Frederic Encel :

Trump’s base is remaining the same and still supporting him no matter what.

Yes but even Fox news recently criticized him

Fox News criticism are not significant and are very different from CNN’s criticisms.

To come back to Trump Foreign Policy , before the elections Trump had announced a very strong Alliance with Russia. It didn’t work as we see now. However for China, he announced already the commercial war in his political campaign, so he is coherent with what he promised.

Regarding North Korea there was an aggressive attitude from Trump, to finally arrived to an agreement a minima, with little content. A small agreement but still an agreement.

Do you think it is a success for the American Foreign Policy?

This agreement is a big success for American allies in the region mainly South Korea but most importantly Japan.

Regarding Iran, Trump threatened but he went even further in its will to modify the JCPOA agreement with Iran. His Iranian Foreign Policy is led by Saudi Arabia will to purchase 110 billions dollars worth of American military equipment. Trump is consistent and following his campaign promises. These purchases from Saudi Arabia should boost the job market in the US , especially in the Industrial sector. When we know what is the plue-value on the sale of American military equipment.

Saudi Arabia is one of the only country in the world that can buy so much American Military Equipment

When Trump come to Saudi Arabia in 2017, he doesn’t even know where his Qatar, and is not interested.  What he knows is that Saudia Arabia is key to American Industrial Success.

What about the influence of Netanyahu regarding Iran? Are you saying it’s a secondary factor?

Yex exactly the influence of Netanyahu is only a secondary factor. The Primary factor dictating his Iranian Policy is Saudi Arabia.

So if Netanyahu was not influent, why moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem? It is an extremely significative gesture, that no American President had the courage to do before despite promising it their electoral campaign.

Trump cared about Israel only during the electoral campaign. Trump was rich enough not to need support from the American Jewish community that votes democrats anyway.

American Jews besides Florida votes mostly outside the Swing States. He did it only to win the support of the Evangelical community – that didn’t even vote in mass for him-.

Since his election, he plays a lot the Jerusalem Card, and he knows in a good businessman that Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world that is capable and able to buy so much American Military Equipment.

Saudi Arabia is obsessed by Iran, especially since the arrival of MBS in power. Everything for Trump is good to reinforce the Sunni Axis against Iran and basically reinforces Iran’s enemies.

This way Trump Transfer his US Embassy in Jerusalem, win the support of the evanlegic community, and abroad, in support for Arab support (we cannot say there was any strong official Arab opposition in the embassy move)  for this embassy move he reinforces the sanctions to Iran. “Chapeau L’artiste” (well done).

On this question is strategy is well done or at least is coherent, not idiot.

Is there any modern Kissinger that dictates Trump his Foreign Policy, do you think Tillerson or Pompeo are the ones behind this Foreign Policy Architecture?

It is a good question, I have only one hypothesis for it, it is Trump himself. I work on it since a while and I can tell you that I don’t know anyone in the Trump administration that could be assimilated as a “Kissinger-type” adviser on Foreign Policy.

Regarding his Foreign Policy of Economic War against China?

I will not be severe against Trump Economic Policy as he was elected by Americans in order to protect his country economy.

Emmanuel Navon arriving

Mr, Navon what do you think about Trump Environmental Foreign Policy, as many young diplomats readers things its retarded and clearly a mistake.

The Environmental issue has become theologic, Trump has the right to question himself on the real causes behind Global warming.

The agreement was very badly negotiated by Obama, and he thinks that the price paid by the US is too high.

Israel Is getting closer and closer to GCC countries of Sunni states, is it a trend that is going to get stronger in the coming years or just a temporary phenomenon?

It totally depends on Iran’s attitude. As Iran is financing many proxies in the region created tensions in several countries.

The real challenge would be in Syria, where Iranian influence is growing, however, it would be limited by Russia , as Russia didn’t save Syria to give it to the Iranian.

The Russian Strategy is excellent in Syria , as they avoided sending men.

Interested in pursuing an academic career? Netanya Academic College can permit you to do that : https://www.netanya.ac.il/englishSite/AboutNetanyaAcademicCollege/Pages/NetanyaAcademicCollege.aspx

The Chinese character for “alone” is 单独 (Dandu), the same as that for “lonely.” In Chinese culture, it is hard to differentiate between the two meanings. There are two factions in People’s Congress to interpret it in their own way. But world is in great confusion to decide which side this camel will sit. Besides, after four decades of economic development, this country now has a complete set of supply chains and its dependence on foreign (especially trade) has fallen in the past decade. In addition, China will boast the largest domestic market in a few years. In this sense, China can rely on itself to develop without much input from the outside world.

A huge section of masses also want China to return to its past isolation phase. It includes peasants, traders, local manufacturers as well as hardcore nationalists who believed Chinese politics and culture as superior to other ones. Other portions will look forward for further expansion, but in scattered way else not to focus on one big market.

These thoughts are growing in Chinese minds, due to revisionist policies taken by Xi Jinping in military development as done in Ming China in 1434 AD. It benefited them heavily then, and still believes it will work. It’s in the past of China that whenever China strengthened their position among possible contenders, it follows isolationist policy and revises its own market and governance to bring Confucian order back.

China recorded the highest share in world exports (17 %), followed by EU and USA. Interesting thing here is that Beijing exports maximum to the second and third highest in the same list but devoid of it, these two’s won’t have much share in exports to China. Also, on contrary to it, Chinese holding on international trade share fell in 2017 and 2018 especially with US and EU both.

From last decade, it was shown that China is taking U-turn from its opening contract with US in 1970 as they retrieve back from every single possible regulation from international foray except trade and commerce. Here, they raise iron curtain of import duties as a shield to protect them from international separation. China, now a days, putting itself forward for the contention of national interests and strategic foothold over key institutional divergences laid by it in early 2000’s. Chinese President Xi Jinping is now diverging trade destinations to second tier or third tier countries by focusing individual nation as a stakeholder in common minimum program launched by him in 2012. It dictates them to kingpin China by cadence of neighbors.

In cyber world, according to a survey published by the German Chamber of Commerce in China in September last year, factors such as the escalating cyber censorship, slow internet connection when one is visiting foreign websites and the lack of intellectual property protection are discouraging German companies from investing in this country. Not only Germans, same type of assessment reports are coming from USA, Canada and Europe regarding Chinese hurdles for free flow of information. It is indeed mind-boggling why China’s leaders are turning their country into an isolated island as far as information is concerned, considering that Beijing has actually benefited a lot from globalization and the information superhighway. Chinese tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent and Huawei benefitted a lot from global market when it come to share, market penetration, trust margins and investors. While China has maintained a firm grip on the cyber world, netizens in the mainland still manage to gain access to highly popular but banned foreign websites such as YouTube and Facebook by using software and apps such as the Virtual Private Network (VPN).

Frankly speaking Chinese decisions are directly linked with party reforms in politics and their response from outer world. Chinese are very sensitive about what world thinks for them. China’s new leadership was not interested in autarchy outside but believes it inside. US led markets, world system, and world order is now an irk in the eye! for Chinese. Here, their leadership will go for two stances:

First, to deepen reform and build an open economy and liberal society, the West will welcome a rising China and integrate China into the current international order, which means China will remain open.

Second, the opposite choice, the West will be disappointed and will move forward to contain China. Being contained, China would have no choice but to retreat into isolation.

As the steps taken slowly by Chinese leadership, it is now believed by several columnists that China is paving their footsteps towards isolation and not even matter for them what international foray decide about contention of China because till the end of next decade, China will sufficiently hold multi developing nations in its basket, for their needs and deeds. Hence, avoiding unlikely and staying within own sphere, pays them much in comparison to listen and engage with everyone.

Also, what was called the Middle Empire, is not in favour of full seclusion policy, either selective or nominative seclusion is on the desk of policy decision makers which provides them edge in profits and reduce dependencies on unworthy clients. It’s a spiral of seclusion; where West and others will roll while China hinges at centre to furl its pro reform agenda in cradle.

One can assert here, is that post 1970 Chinese engagement policy with world fails, but reality is that what China needs from them is fulfilled. The greatest danger now is that the China, is now sinicizing ‘carrot and stick’ policy of West for their benefits by throwing carrot out and picks up the stick instead. World system should take care of this pendulum as it will be soon pose grave dangers to the idea of global village.

“Be chary about DRAGON, otherwise it will become KRAKEN for world order.”

Japan’s GDP represents 7.86 per cent of the world’s economy. The country had one of the G7’s lowest GDP growth rates over the past 20 years, coming second only after Italy. In 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced pro-growth policies, which are known as ”Abenomics”. The main purpose of these policies was to counter long-term stagnation. Notably, Japan also has the lowest unemployment rate among the G7 countries.

Many experts suggest that Japan’s demographics actually weakens its GDP growth. Speaking of GDP growth per person of working age, Japan has the second-best performance out of all G7 countries. Therefore, shrinking workforce and rapidly aging population pose enormous threat for the economic growth. In the next three decades, average annual GDP growth could be dragged down by 1 per cent and the population has already shrunk by about 1.3 million people since 2010. The UN predicts that by 2065, Japan’s population will fall by an additional 28 million people, while other predictions suggest that by 2040, one in three people will be over 65 years old.

Currently, Japan has one of the world’s oldest societies. The main question that arises is whether government can finance pensions and healthcare for everyone. From 2009 to 2016, over 2000 primary schools and kindergartens have been closed. In 2017, the number of babies born dropped below 1 million, which represents the lowest number since the country started counting in 1899. The number of kids that Japanese women had in the 1970s was 2.1, while today it is far below the replacement rate (1.4). One of the most striking comparisons suggests that there are now more adult diapers sold than baby diapers in Japanese supermarkets. Eventually, there will not be enough young people to care for the elderly. Currently, there are more than 67 thousand people over the age of 100, which the highest number out of all countries in the world. Additionally, more than a quarter of the population is 65 or more. Japan also has a very high suicide rate, which is the leading cause of death for people aged 15 to 39.

Some of the biggest industries such as electronics and vehicles do not have the manpower to continue at the current rate of production. One of the logical solutions in this case would be to increase the amount of time spent working for each citizen, but this is not a plausible solution because most of the Japanese are already overworking. Another way out of the problem could be found in robotics and technology since more work becomes automate and therefore, it requires less physical bodies to do the work. Additionally, possible solution to the problem could be immigration plan that increases the number of foreigners, but Japan actively restricts immigration for several reasons. First, there is a desire to be united as ”one nation, one language, one people.” Second, the Japanese have a strong sense of national unity.

Many other challenges that Japan will face are also pointed out by the IMF, and these include: very low inflation, high public debt and weakening medium/long-term potential growth prospects. Because of all of these threats, the government will try to reform the entire social security system. There is a plan to introduce consumption tax that will bring much-needed revenue and be a step towards containing debt. Furthermore, wages and prices can be raised by reducing labor market inequality. Nevertheless, growth and productivity can be increased as well. The first instance where investment will be significantly boosted is the monumental event for Japan – 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Qatar will be leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in early 2019. The minister of energy Saad Sherida al Kaabi, declared that Doha has been working on plans to increase their gas production, in contrast to OPEC’s decision that seeks to reduce the production in the interest of keeping the oil and gas prices afloat. Indeed, directing Qatar’s national resources towards gas is at the backbone of its energy policy.

This resolution is not only a bitter take for the OPEC, it will also be the case for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which even though seeks to effect co-ordination and unity among member states (that include Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates), seems to be having more and more trouble in maintaining its adherence within the institution. Qatar’s withdrawal from the OPEC could also entail its future withdrawal from the GCC. Let’s recall that last year Saudi Arabia and its allies declared an economic embargo with Qatar, arguing that Doha is supporting terrorist groups as well as having too close tights with Iran (Saudi Arabia’s political and religious rival).

Since the beginning of this embargo, Qatar has been planning on making its economy less dependent from other GCC members. Political statements such as this one will for sure make the country more independent, but will threaten the GCC’s unity. One of the elements that has made this area very prosperous has been the use of similarities in the religious, cultural, economic and development challenges present in the region to create cohesion and harmony among neighboring nations. Nevertheless, the embargo has seemed to be a disruptive element in the council dividing member states’ loyalties and common interests.

Doha’s statement has been perceived as a reaction towards Riyadh while the kingdom is slightly weaker due to the fall in the price of oil. Overall, Qatar leaving the OPEC will destabilize the organization, but this represents a significant move to illustrate that big decisions are dictated by the big fish in the organization, and that Qatar is well enough without other Arab countries.

Mexico’s has a federal system in which periodical elections are carried out to choose local authorities including governors, local deputies and a president. Since the end of the Mexican revolution in the late 1920s, the country has been ruled by one for almost 90 years by one party, with very few interruptions in power. The Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI, or Revolutionary Institutional party) with its enormous resilience has been considered as the almost perfect dictatorship.

As paradoxical as it may seem the electoral defeat of the PRI in various Mexican states in the late 80s and 90s prompted an increase in drug trafficking and criminal activities. Political scientists Ley and Trejo contend that turf wars and violence escalation in Mexico can be linked to the subnational democratization of Mexico, because cartels lost their conventional access to informal networks and protection which they used to receive from the PRI [1]. Indeed, the hegemonic PRI government permitted drug lords to have legal loops, links and protection from authorities.

Party alternation meant that those informal links began to break and thus, cartels required an alternative arrangement that would provide them with a defense mechanism against their competitors. Therefore, drug lords developed their own militias which also allowed them to renegotiate the informal networks with the new elected authorities by coercive means and bribes. Yet, due to their newly developed capabilities, it was an almost natural step to seek territorial expansion and this started turf war among cartels.

Nevertheless, the violence increased dramatically from 2006 onwards with the arrival of former president Felipe Calderón who decided to declare a war on drugs. The severity in the raise of violence should not be underestimated. There have been almost 235,00 people who have been killed directly or indirectly in these turf wars during the administrations of Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) and Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018).

The new Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador has stated that security will be a recurrent topic that needs to be addressed. Yet, there is no easy or magical solutions to this problem. His proposal on creating a national guard has been highly criticized by intellectuals and policymakers since it could entail the militarization of the streets. In the meantime, there are thousands of untold tragedies in this war in which remain untold due to fear or impunity.

[1] Guillermo Trejo & Sandra Ley, “Why did drug cartels go to war in Mexico? Subnational party alternation, the breakdown of criminal protection, and the onset of large-scale violence”, in Comparative political studies, vol. 0, nº0, p. 3.

Brexit has brought the United Kingdom far away from one of its most important allies in the Indo-Pacific region: Japan. Though has it? Economically, the UK has been declining in importance for Japan.  Japanese investment into the UK has been stagnating, Japanese businesses have reallocated from Britain to Continental Europe, and Japan has focused on intensifying economic ties with the European Union. Yet, in the case of defence and maritime security cooperation, the UK’s relation to Japan has been gaining weight. 

The UK, once the primary economic, naval, and regional power has advanced in declaring a new interest in the East Asian region. The region contains “…60 per cent of the world’s population, nine of the world’s ten busiest trading ports, and the top three economies in the world…”. Thus, it is unsurprising why the region is so important for Britain. Yet, it is not only that trade and economic reasons which drive UK’s motivation. Brexit has taken a toll on Britain’s diplomatic and political status in the Pacific – especially amongst the “P5” Pacific powers (Australia, Brunei, Malaysia New Zealand, and Singapore). It has therefore focused on rekindling its presence in the region by strengthening its ties with Japan, and vice versa.

Japanese policymakers and Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) came accordingly to the “Tokyo Consensus”  – arguing that Brexit may become a “blessing in disguise”. It refers to the idea that post-Brexit Britain will be unable to identify itself with the EU, and that it will attempt to rediscover, and reinvest in, its old self-image as a great seafaring nation. And for now, British activities seem reassuring for Japan.

The UK and Japan regularly have “2+2” foreign and defence ministerial-level meetings. Both sides have engaged in defence equipment cooperation, such as joint research and development of new air-to-air missiles, joint military exercises between Royal Air Force fighter jets, or enhanced intelligence sharing. Both have also engaged in a joint drill by flying through the airspace in the Sea of Japan and around Taiwan. In 2016, the UK even deployed its Typhoon fighter aircraft to Misawa Air Base in Japan which was “…probably the most ambitious deployment that the [Royal] Air Force has done to the Far East”. In the future, the UK plans to deploy one of its aircraft carriers to the South China Sea (SCS) to vindicate the rule-based international order against China. For Japan, a highly welcomed move.

Japan’s location is not going to change in the coming centuries. Japan will continue to be offshore the Eurasian landmass, enclosed by water, and surrounded by rivals: Russia, North and South Korea, and China. Japan has invested more than 15 years in evolving its geo-strategic position to counter an assertive China. It has upheld international maritime rules, nurtured diplomatic relations in Southeast Asia, and conducted marine capacity-building programs. However, despite its attempt of connecting with like-minded, democratic, naval powers such as the United States, Australia, or India, Tokyo knows that none of them would interfere if a Sino-Japanese conflict erupts over the SCS or the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Therefore, having the UK as a potential law enforcer and political ally on its side – one which would not fear China – is comforting.

In Europe, the UK and France are the only countries which have maintained an Asia-Pacific presence. Both send their navies on a regular basis to the Indo-Pacific region, cherish their maritime identity, and are residential powers in the area. Similarly to the UK, France has re-established its ties with Japan over the last year. It has increased its presence in its territories of New Caledonia and Tahiti, and it has deployed warships and its navies in the SCS to counter China. However, British-Japanese ties date back to World War I. Britain also has more extensive military capabilities compared to France. Not only does it outnumber the French military, its “fleet in being” – referring to the capability to go whenever, wherever it wants without owning significant territory to throw off the regional military balance – is unique in its flexibility. Combined with the UK’s image as a “Gateway to Europe” for Japan, Tokyo has decided to pay more attention to its old friend and ally the UK.

Survival is a state’s foremost goal in the International system. In the Anarchic system, every state desires to dominate this world order. In this world where every state has interests and always fears of other states. This fear is nowadays compounded by the fact of China’s future and its intents for global dominance.

From the global economic hold, China is achieving its goal. The effort of China for economic dominance is in its better interest. The PRC’s investment around the globe is a sign of its rise in future as hegemonic state creating polarity in the International system. The developmental projects in the African continent which are about 3,030 in number. An initiative of OBOR (one belt one road) also known as Belt and Road initiative. Its objective is to build trade routes between China and the countries in Central Asia, Europe, and Indo-Pacific littoral countries. It is a very ambitious project that involves around 65 countries of about $1trillion investment It will cause regional integration of different states. Moreover, the investment of about $60 billion under CPEC project in Pakistan carrying different developmental projects. These billions’ dollar game of PRC here in the region and around the world will give China a chance for its economic progress as the important strategic locations are under its control. Besides this, the Gwadar port which is the main warm water seaport project will help China to access different major markets easily.

Throughout all these developmental projects, PRC has not yet faced any aggressive confrontation in its way. China has the largest standing Military and it can be deployed for saving interests. The sole power US history tells us that it had always reacted to contain one, replacing it. Cold war era is the major example of such US policies. Now if China is a threat to its hegemony they will respond automatically using its rival states.
Above all China’s establishment of a military base in Djibouti, in the horn of Africa. Although Chinese authorities have said that their purpose is not to enter into the arms race, but this is only for Chinese peacekeeping support and humanitarian purpose in Africa. It is the first ever military presence of PLA in foreign territory. Similarly, the news of Chinese naval base in Gwadar for maritime security will send a strong message to its rivals. Japan, India, Vietnam will automatically join the US-led efforts against China. The recent US defense policy announcement shows that US authorities are now shifting their focus from the War on Terror to containing China and Russia.

The arch-rival India which is also rising as a regional power has recently military standoff in Dokhlam Island has been perceived by India as it can be more confrontational in future it has already started arrangement to oppose China because of perceived threats. The current test of ICBM Agni-5 is a major development of Indian Defense capability. Likewise, the first-ever visit of Israeli premier to India and signing of deals majorly consist of defense agreements. The start of Indian negotiations with the Russian for S-400 missile defense system which will be the major Indian military capability. This India’s struggle to counter China is alarming for its rival country.

The military presence of US in the region such as Afghanistan has planned to remain in the country for an indefinite period and sending of about more 4000 soldiers in the war-torn country, is an indirect message for China. The rising influence of India in Afghanistan and the perceived threats of tarnished terrorists’ organizations such as the Taliban and ISKP near the border of its partner Pakistan will definitely affect its investments in the country. PLA had not yet intervened in ongoing conflicts but the threats revolving around its interests can spark the intervention to safeguard its better interests throughout the region. This can lead to US-China aggressive conflict leading South Asia to a new battlefield of the world Dominating power race.