INTRODUCTION
Whilst discussing the post-Brexit era- and, indeed, its aura- general public and analysts usually focus upon impacts of Brexit on the economy and industrial sector of UK, much less research has been carried out to determine the impacts of Brexit on national security, diplomacy, international order, military strategy, legislation, local government system, standing in international system and taxation system of UK. Although, much rhetoric along with discourse has been added, to describe the probable theme and taste of relations of post-Brexit UK with EU and USA. On the other hand, fear of break-up of UK has been widely spread and argued on. All the above mentioned factors that are going to be affected by Brexit, are actually different dimensions of strategic implications of Brexit on UK.
Since the British voted to leave EU, their decision has sparked outrage not only in Europe but also in UK itself, ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ campaigners have been presenting many facts and figures to support their stance but the most heated and controversial issue is the possibility of degeneration of UK, according to some, in ‘four’ constituent countries, which seems to be more exaggeration near some but alarmingly another Scottish independence referendum is on the table now. Thus, the integrity of UK seems to be more jeopardized than anything else due to Brexit.
Nature of relation between UK and EU after Brexit is sort of ambiguous still as some people refers to Brexit as ‘complete’ break-up of UK with EU, but it can be generally presumed that UK-EU relations will be of good nature, as UK might withdraw itself from EU but surely UK can never break up with Europe geographically, which will have effects on its relations as well.
Sino-UK relations are hoped to be get more positive signs from UK side, as exiting UK from free EU market, requires new partners for a smooth trade flow and investment. But for China, it’ll be better to have more strong ties with a more appealing and powerful ally EU than a small player UK. So, for its national interest, Beijing has to opt for EU rather than UK for trade and investment. In the case of US, Washington has always been a close ally of London not only sharing common grounds based upon linguistics and values but also as a partner in security and this ‘special relationship’ is reinforced by the president of US, Donald Trump, who has shown his overwhelming support for UK considering Brexit as a right choice.
Brexit is likely to have very less impact upon military strategy and alliances of UK, as it’s in interest of both UK and EU to cooperate in the security matters to counter terrorism and address various other issues related to security. However, a perpetual flux in economy due to Brexit can affect the defense budget.
UK standing in international political system is going to decline, as it’s converting itself from a state being part of EU, having a common foreign policy of 28 nations, to a state with no such perks in future and thus becoming a relative small player.
Brexit will affect the constitution order, legislation, immigration laws, local government and tax system of UK all for a single reason that laws of EU no longer applies to UK, and thus UK has to formulate its own laws accordingly.
Strategic Implications of Brexit on UK:
1.0 Jeopardizing the National Integrity
It’ll the same for Scotland to quit UK, as it is for UK to exit European Union, not only majority in Scotland but also in Ireland voted to remain in EU. So, there exists a tremendous difference between the demands and ideas of England and above two mentioned.
1.1. Scotland
UK standing in international political system is going to decline, as it’s converting itself from a state being part of EU, having a common foreign policy of 28 nations, to a state with no such perks in future and thus becoming a relative small player.
1.1.1. Sturgeon’s Stance
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has dismissed the promise of Theresa May of new power offers for Scotland and has rejected Brexit calling that it would result in economy decline and huge job losses. Sturgeon has pledged to hold another referendum in order to secede from UK.
1.1.2. Public Opinion
People of Scotland have already been divided over the question to either remain with UK or to leave it, but now Brexit has triggered general opinion of Scottish people in favor of Europe and against that of UK.
1.1.3. Second Referendum
There is talk to hold second Scottish independence referendum. Although, during Brexit processing, referendum plan is off the table but in future it’s unavoidable as study polls have shown that the support to ‘leave’ UK has increased over the years to 49%.
1.1.4 Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland isn’t only financially independent on Europe but historically is way much more attached to Europe than is to UK. 55.8% of Irish people voted to remain with EU. Irish people particularly farmers are troubled whose source of income are EU coffers.
2. Diplomacy
2.1. Relations with EU after Brexit
Despite of its breaking ties with EU, UK will maintain good relations with EU even after
Brexit, good relations are the need of both above mentioned.
2.2. Relations with USA
Donald Trump has pledged its support for UK and has praised UK decision to leave EU, this could further strengthen the ‘special relationship’ between US and UK. Nigel Farage, ex- leader of the British UKIP party, which is pro-Brexit, spoke at Trump’s campaign rally in Jackson. Thus, there exists a nexus among Brexiteens and Trump.
2.3. Sino-UK Relationship
Instead of keen interest shown by UK, China isn’t much into UK because China finds big
European market more lucrative than that of small UK.
3. International Influence
Having withdrawn from EU, UK wouldn’t be able to influence International politics as it used to be. Now UK may have small role in international organizations as G8 etc.
4. Military Strategy and Military Alliances
Brexit isn’t going to affect this factor at all, after all, whatever the regional politics is, enemy of UK, EU and the remaining world at large is the same, ISIS and other terrorists organizations.
5. Internal Security and Technology Sector
Economic consequences of Brexit will lead to cut on military budget. And there can be laws to direct the usage and ownership of weaponry as it was previously supervised by EU. Network affects will be damaging to UK tech-industry.
6. Constitution, legislation, Tax Power and Local Government
New rules and regulation of UK will change the previously existing structure of above mentioned.
CONCLUSION: We can conclude that strategically, integrity and diplomacy will be the two main factors affecting UK, having more negative impacts even leading to break down of UK.
